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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 34, Raiders 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 13:39, 1st and 10, on B.Berrios — 11.5 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:39 · 1st and 10
B.Berrios
Jets
(13:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at LV 1 for 69 yards (25-E.Harris).
11.5
16.7 mph wind
Raiders closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 34–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:39, Jets +11.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.DarnoldJetsQ2 10:48(10:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
D.CarlsonJetsQ2 7:17(7:17) 8-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
10.0pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Raiders154 of 159 plays carry both curves
(13:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at LV 1 for 69 yards (25-E.Harris).
Swing +11.5 for JetsExpected points +4.70 for JetsThe model had Jets 10 points higher than the market did.play 88
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:39NYJ +12% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at LV 1 for 69 yards (25-E.Harris).
2nd · 10:48NYJ +11% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:17OAK +10% win prob(7:17) 8-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
2nd · 5:27NYJ +8% win prob(5:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-Ro.Anderson to LV 12 for 31 yards (50-N.Morrow).
2nd · 2:34OAK +7% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 30-J.Richard to LV 22 for -2 yards (23-A.Maulet).
1st · 8:54NYJ +7% win prob(8:54) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-Ro.Anderson pushed ob at LV 24 for 24 yards (27-T.Mullen).
2nd · 9:14
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
S.Darnold's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 10:48 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:00D.Carlson·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–0
1st5:05S.Ficken·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+33–3
2nd10:48S.Darnold·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
2nd3:16S.Ficken·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+33–13
3 of 3 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Jets14.3%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 44.7%, 11.0 points below their season mean of 55.7% and 1.1 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Leo KoloamatangiCNate HairstonCBDarryl RobertsCBJordan WillisDEC.J. MosleyILBPaul WorrilowOLBMatthias FarleySS
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 16-T.Williams to NYJ 31 for 12 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
Q1 11:19 · Raiders · 3rd & 6 at NYJ 43 · gained 12 · +2.19 EP · +8.9% win probability
152 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 96 yards from the NYJ 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
38%
Yards
609
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2563%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.2568%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.029%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0614%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.29100%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.7250%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Raiders3Jets0
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Jets 29
Raiders3Jets3
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Raiders 6
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 4 to the Jets 38
2nd quarter46 plays
Raiders3Jets9
Raiders3Jets10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Raiders 4
No good10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Jets 25
Raiders3Jets13
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Raiders 12
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 24
No good6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 23
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Raiders 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Raiders3Jets19
Raiders3Jets20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Raiders 1
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Raiders 39
Raiders3Jets26
Raiders3Jets27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Raiders 1
Raiders3Jets33
Touchdown2 plays
Raiders3Jets34
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 41
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 18
Fumble lost1 play
Drive ended2 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Raiders 40
The period ended1 play
4th quarter36 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 25
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Jets 47
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Raiders 35
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 37
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 26
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
