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2019 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh16
BY 6final margin
BengalsCincinnati10
Pittsburgh Steelers 16 at Cincinnati Bengals 10. Final.
Steelers -5.5 ✓U 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 12
Pittsburgh Steelers 16, Bengals 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 11:22, 2nd and 17, on J.Washington — 23.0 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:22 · 2nd and 17
J.Washington
Steelers
(11:22) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Steelers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Pittsburgh Steelers 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 11:22, Steelers +23.0% win probability on one snap.
23.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.BoydBengalsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward].
12.2pts
T.BoydSteelersQ4 8:59(8:59) 5-R.Finley pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to PIT 8 for 22 yards (55-D.Bush). FUMBLES (55-D.Bush), RECOVERED by PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick at PIT 6. 39-M.Fitzpatrick to PIT 42 for 36 yards (66-T.Hopkins).
22.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Steelers won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 35% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Steelers164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(11:22) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −23.0 for BengalsExpected points −7.48 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 20 points higher than the market did.play 95
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:22CIN +23% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:59PIT +22% win prob(8:59) 5-R.Finley pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to PIT 8 for 22 yards (55-D.Bush). FUMBLES (55-D.Bush), RECOVERED by PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick at PIT 6. 39-M.Fitzpatrick to PIT 42 for 36 yards (66-T.Hopkins).
2nd · 2:00CIN +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward].
4th · 11:10CIN +12% win prob(11:10) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short left to 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at PIT 45 for 30 yards (22-S.Nelson).
2nd · 7:28CIN +9% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep right to 17-D.Cain to CIN 24 for 35 yards (23-B.Webb).
4th · 12:04CIN +8% win prob(12:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Boswell's 47-yard field goal with 12:04 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd3:24C.Boswell·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–0
3rd5:11R.Bullock·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+310–10
4th12:04C.Boswell·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.CanadayLead never changed again+313–10
4th3:21C.Boswell·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+316–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers8–1Bengals
343Total yards244
5.3Yards per play4.8
35%Success rate27%
31%Third-down rate17%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays5
13First downs8
3Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Steelers ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Steelers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.38Bengals: −0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Steelers: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.49Bengals: −0.49 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Steelers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.21Bengals: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 65 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Bengals’s 51 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 5, Bengals 2.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 29.0%, is past their previous high of 24.4% in week 8 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 11.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
PIT's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.3 pts in week 11 against −10.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.0% in week 11 against 42.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bengals21.2%
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 19.2% and 1.6 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Finley pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:59) 5-R.Finley pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to PIT 8 for 22 yards (55-D.Bush). FUMBLES (55-D.Bush), RECOVERED by PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick at PIT 6. 39-M.Fitzpatrick to PIT 42 for 36 yards (66-T.Hopkins).
Q4 8:59 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at PIT 30 · gained 22 · -5.64 EP · −27.8% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 83 yards from the PIT 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
34%
Yards
582
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.3561%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0256%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0964%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.1420%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1813%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 46
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 2 to the Steelers 10
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 9
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bengals 17
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 25
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 49
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Steelers3Bengals0
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Bengals 8
Steelers3Bengals6
Steelers3Bengals7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Steelers 15
Punt11 plays, from the Steelers 7 to the Steelers 45
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 43
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Bengals 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Steelers9Bengals7
Steelers10Bengals7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 31
Steelers10Bengals10
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Steelers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 41
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 38
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bengals 22
Steelers13Bengals10
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Bengals 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 30
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Bengals 44
Punt4 plays
Steelers16Bengals10
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -5.5
Closing total
37.5
Steelers moneyline
-225
Bengals moneyline
+199
Steelers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 26 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 42°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Steelers 10 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:21
CIN +8% win prob
(:21) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.
1st · 0:58PIT +8% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle intended for 14-T.Jones INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Williams (96-C.Dunlap) at CIN 3. 36-S.Williams to CIN 15 for 12 yards (67-B.Finney).
