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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
SeahawksSeattle17
BY 8final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia9
Seattle Seahawks 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 9. Final.
Seahawks -1 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 12
Seattle Seahawks 17, Eagles 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 6:10, 3rd and 3 — 14.5 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:10 · 3rd and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 45, RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at SEA 48. 99-Q.Jefferson to PHI 32 for 20 yards (11-C.Wentz).
Seahawks closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.
Seattle Seahawks 17–9. Biggest swing: Q3 6:10, Seahawks +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.WentzSeahawksQ1 3:12(3:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 44 for -5 yards (98-R.Green). FUMBLES (98-R.Green) [98-R.Green], RECOVERED by SEA-72-A.Woods at PHI 46. 72-A.Woods to PHI 46 for no gain (72-H.Vaitai).
8.9pts
R.PennySeahawksQ4 12:06(12:06) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 2 giveaways, against Eagles at 6 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Seahawks165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 45, RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at SEA 48. 99-Q.Jefferson to PHI 32 for 20 yards (11-C.Wentz).
Swing −14.5 for EaglesExpected points −6.54 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 8 points higher than the market did.play 107
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:10SEA +14% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 45, RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at SEA 48. 99-Q.Jefferson to PHI 32 for 20 yards (11-C.Wentz).
1st · 3:12SEA +9% win prob(3:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 44 for -5 yards (98-R.Green). FUMBLES (98-R.Green) [98-R.Green], RECOVERED by SEA-72-A.Woods at PHI 46. 72-A.Woods to PHI 46 for no gain (72-H.Vaitai).
4th · 12:06PHI +9% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:45PHI +7% win prob(6:45) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-DK.Metcalf to PHI 33 for 17 yards (21-R.Darby).
1st · 12:36SEA +7% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 16 for -8 yards (sack split by 94-J.Sweat and 91-F.Cox).
2nd · 13:31SEA +7% win prob(13:31) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 30-B.McDougald [97-P.Ford] at SEA 17. 30-B.McDougald to SEA 17 for no gain (88-D.Goedert).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Turner's 33-yard touchdown catch with 6:03 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:31J.Elliott·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+30–3
1st6:03M.Turner·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom R.Wilsonfrom R.WilsonLead never changed again+77–3
2nd7:16J.Myers·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+310–3
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Seahawks: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.31Eagles: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Seahawks: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.27Eagles: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Seahawks: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.41Eagles: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 56 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Eagles’s 72 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Eagles 2.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
PHI's early-down pass rate, 72.4%, is past their previous high of 64.7% in week 11 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +7.6 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Eagles25.0%
inside their normal wobble · +8.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.4%, 16.1 points above their season mean of 56.3% and 1.8 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz FUMBLES−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 45, RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at SEA 48. 99-Q.Jefferson to PHI 32 for 20 yards (11-C.Wentz).
Q3 6:10 · Eagles · 3rd & 3 at SEA 38 · gained nothing · -6.54 EP · −18.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 88 yards from the SEA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
39%
Yards
692
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR51-0.3169%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2665%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.1663%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0738%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.7417%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.6580%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Eagles 40
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 24
Seahawks0Eagles3
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Seahawks 10
Seahawks6Eagles3
Seahawks7Eagles3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Eagles 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 49
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 1 to the Eagles 40
2nd quarter42 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 33
Seahawks10Eagles3
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Eagles 6
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 34
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Seahawks 48
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 21
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Eagles 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 16
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Seahawks 38
Intercepted6 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Seahawks 43
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 20
4th quarter54 plays
Seahawks16Eagles3
Seahawks17Eagles3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Eagles 48
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Seahawks 46
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 35
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 22
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Eagles 30
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 2 to the Eagles 44
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to midfield
Seahawks17Eagles9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
