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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 at Atlanta Falcons 22. Final.
Falcons -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35, Falcons 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:24, 3rd and 7, on D.Campbell — 14.6 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:24 · 3rd and 7
D.Campbell
Falcons
(3:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at TB 19. 59-D.Campbell to TB 19 for no gain (44-D.Ogunbowale).
O 51.5 ✓
Dome
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35–22. Biggest swing: Q1 3:24, Falcons +14.6% win probability on one snap.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.GodwinBuccaneersQ1 6:57(6:57) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.3pts
C.GodwinBuccaneersQ2 9:53(9:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin to ATL 10 for 30 yards (27-D.Kazee).
11.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Falcons at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Falcons at 4 of 16 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Buccaneers189 of 201 plays carry both curves
(3:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at TB 19. 59-D.Campbell to TB 19 for no gain (44-D.Ogunbowale).
Swing +14.6 for FalconsExpected points +3.95 for FalconsThe model had Buccaneers 4 points higher than the market did.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:24TB +15% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at TB 19. 59-D.Campbell to TB 19 for no gain (44-D.Ogunbowale).
1st · 6:57ATL +13% win prob(6:57) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:53ATL +11% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin to ATL 10 for 30 yards (27-D.Kazee).
1st · 14:25ATL +11% win prob(14:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 87-J.Graham to TB 22 for 53 yards (39-A.Adams).
2nd · 3:31ATL +11% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman ran ob at ATL 48 for 44 yards. Atlanta challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 03:24.)
1st · 12:12TB +11% win prob(12:12) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Trufant at ATL 47. 21-D.Trufant to ATL 47 for no gain (13-M.Evans).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Godwin's 1-yard touchdown catch with 8:01 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:52Y.Koo·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+30–3
Buccaneers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Buccaneers: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.15Falcons: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.48Buccaneers: +0.48 expected points added per play
−0.15Falcons: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Buccaneers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.17Falcons: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 58 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Falcons’s 81 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Falcons 5.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 3.1%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 11.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 54.5% in week 11 against 77.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 87.2% in week 11 against 45.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
Falcons3.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.0%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 64.6% and 1.3 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
John CominskyDEKemal IshmaelFSDeadrin SenatNTDevonta FreemanRBMatt GonoTAustin HooperTEBrandon PowellWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass+20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:57) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:57 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 6 at TB 29 · gained 71 · +6.04 EP · +20.0% win probability
187 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 201 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 98 yards from the TB 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
36%
Yards
783
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0092%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1554%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.4142%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0245%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0538%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.8229%
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6-1.4767%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+1.7380%
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers0Falcons3
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 7
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 36
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Buccaneers 35
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Buccaneers6Falcons3
Buccaneers7Falcons3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 3 to the Buccaneers 29
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 13
Buccaneers7Falcons9
Buccaneers7Falcons10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 26
Buccaneers13Falcons10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Falcons 1
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 48
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Buccaneers19Falcons10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 5 to the Falcons 1
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Buccaneers25Falcons10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 45
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 19
Buccaneers25Falcons13
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Buccaneers 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 35
4th quarter64 plays
Buccaneers28Falcons13
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Falcons 14
Buccaneers28Falcons16
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 14
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 43
Punt4 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Falcons 36
Buccaneers34Falcons16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 15
Buccaneers35Falcons16
Buccaneers35Falcons22
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 21
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
