2019 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -3.5 upsetO 51.5 ✓DomeFalcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35–22. Biggest swing: Q1 3:24, TB +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:24TB — ATL TB ball · 3rd & 7TB 55%

(3:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at TB 19. 59-D.Campbell to TB 19 for no gain (44-D.Ogunbowale).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:24TB +15% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at TB 19. 59-D.Campbell to TB 19 for no gain (44-D.Ogunbowale).
Q1 · 6:57ATL +13% win prob(6:57) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:53ATL +11% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin to ATL 10 for 30 yards (27-D.Kazee).
Q1 · 14:25ATL +11% win prob(14:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 87-J.Graham to TB 22 for 53 yards (39-A.Adams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Falcons
Offensive plays	58	81
Total yards	450 (edge)	337
Yards per play	7.8 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	45% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	55%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.48 (edge)	-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	4/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20	20
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	6
Turnovers	2	2

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	8	68	2:13	Turnover on downs
2	TB	TB 25	3	11	0:40	Interception
3	ATL	ATL 47	6	18	2:45	Punt
4	TB	TB 3	6	98	2:37	Touchdown
5	ATL	ATL 25	8	41	2:45	Punt
6	TB	TB 10	3	3	0:43	Interception
7	ATL	TB 19	7	19	2:31	Touchdown
8	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:40	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 13	5	-5	2:40	Punt
10	TB	TB 49	7	61	3:31	Touchdown
11	ATL	ATL 25	8	13	3:11	Punt
12	TB	TB 5	12	95	4:04	Touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 25	5	7	0:35	Punt
14	TB	TB 26	1	0	0:05	End of half
15	TB	TB 25	11	75	4:02	Touchdown
16	ATL	ATL 25	5	20	1:46	Interception
17	TB	TB 11	4	8	1:36	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 44	13	54	5:56	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 25	9	61	3:52	Turnover on downs
20	ATL	ATL 25	14	55	4:36	Turnover on downs
21	TB	TB 25	6	13	1:38	Punt
22	ATL	ATL 19	4	-4	0:46	Punt
23	TB	TB 45	6	17	2:04	Punt
24	ATL	ATL 10	4	-4	0:38	Defensive touchdown
25	ATL	ATL 25	11	55	1:16	Touchdown
26	TB	50	4	0	1:50	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 98 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3.5
Closing total: 51.5
TB moneyline: +163
ATL moneyline: -183

Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 57 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: TB 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.