2019 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 28, 2019 · AT&T Stadium
Buffalo BillsWinner
26
Dallas Cowboys
15
Buffalo Bills 26–15. Biggest swing: Q2 3:31, BUF +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(3:31) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 42 for -9 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver), RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at DAL 44. 93-T.Murphy to DAL 39 for 5 yards (76-X.Su'a-Filo; 89-B.Jarwin).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 3:31BUF +19% win prob(3:31) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 42 for -9 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver), RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at DAL 44. 93-T.Murphy to DAL 39 for 5 yards (76-X.Su'a-Filo; 89-B.Jarwin).
- Q2 · 5:38BUF +14% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 98-S.Lotulelei [58-M.Milano] at DAL 29. 98-S.Lotulelei to DAL 29 for no gain (20-T.Pollard).
- Q2 · 0:04BUF +13% win prob(:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-S.Lotulelei), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
- Q2 · 2:00DAL +12% win prob(2:00) 15-J.Brown pass deep right to 26-D.Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Double reverse.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 73 |
| Total yards | 357 | 428 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.8 | 5.9 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.17 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 47% |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 78% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.51 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/14 | 7/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 | 28 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Cowboys outgained Bills 428–357 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | DAL 25 | 11 | 62 | 4:26 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 19 | 7 | 18 | 3:11 | Punt | |
| 3 | DAL | DAL 5 | 6 | 47 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 2 | 9 | 30 | 4:10 | Punt | |
| 5 | DAL | DAL 10 | 10 | 35 | 4:12 | Punt | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 15 | 9 | 85 | 3:46 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | DAL | DAL 25 | 6 | 12 | 2:29 | Interception | |
| 8 | BUF | DAL 29 | 4 | -3 | 1:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | DAL | DAL 40 | 3 | 4 | 1:05 | Fumble | |
| 10 | BUF | DAL 39 | 6 | 49 | 1:28 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | DAL | DAL 25 | 11 | 53 | 1:52 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 29 | 9 | 33 | 4:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | DAL | DAL 25 | 7 | 51 | 3:10 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 37 | 8 | 63 | 4:00 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | DAL | DAL 25 | 12 | 54 | 3:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 6 | 13 | 68 | 7:02 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | DAL | DAL 25 | 12 | 38 | 2:32 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 33 | 4 | 4 | 0:20 | Punt | |
| 19 | DAL | DAL 30 | 6 | 72 | 1:27 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | BUF | DAL 42 | 6 | 10 | 4:01 | End of game |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- DAL -6.5
- Closing total
- 46.5
- BUF moneyline
- +256
- DAL moneyline
- -298
Cowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 41 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- AT&T Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Bill Vinovich
- Rest
- BUF 4 days · DAL 4 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs Jason Garrett