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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 26, Cowboys 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 3:31, 1st and 10, on D.Prescott — 19.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:31 · 1st and 10
D.Prescott
Bills
(3:31) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 42 for -9 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver), RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at DAL 44. 93-T.Murphy to DAL 39 for 5 yards (76-X.Su'a-Filo; 89-B.Jarwin).
Dome
Cowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 26–15. Biggest swing: Q2 3:31, Bills +19.3% win probability on one snap.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.LotuleleiBillsQ2 5:38(5:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 98-S.Lotulelei [58-M.Milano] at DAL 29. 98-S.Lotulelei to DAL 29 for no gain (20-T.Pollard).
14.2pts
B.MaherBillsQ2 0:04(:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-S.Lotulelei), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
13.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.51 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Bills170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(3:31) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 42 for -9 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver), RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at DAL 44. 93-T.Murphy to DAL 39 for 5 yards (76-X.Su'a-Filo; 89-B.Jarwin).
Swing −19.3 for CowboysExpected points −5.68 for CowboysThe model had Bills 13 points higher than the market did.play 71
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:31BUF +19% win prob(3:31) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 42 for -9 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver), RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at DAL 44. 93-T.Murphy to DAL 39 for 5 yards (76-X.Su'a-Filo; 89-B.Jarwin).
2nd · 5:38BUF +14% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 98-S.Lotulelei [58-M.Milano] at DAL 29. 98-S.Lotulelei to DAL 29 for no gain (20-T.Pollard).
2nd · 0:04BUF +13% win prob(:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-S.Lotulelei), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
2nd · 2:00DAL +12% win prob(2:00) 15-J.Brown pass deep right to 26-D.Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Double reverse.
3rd · 13:43DAL +8% win prob(13:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-C.Beasley to DAL 49 for 16 yards (24-C.Awuzie). PENALTY on DAL-25-X.Woods, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DAL 49.
3rd · 9:06BUF +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Singletary's 28-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Cowboys ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.04Cowboys: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.51Bills: +0.51 expected points added per play
−0.06Cowboys: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Bills: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.03Cowboys: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 62 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 73 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Cowboys 4.
NoteCowboys outgained Bills 428-357 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 12 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.0 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 12 against 73.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
BUF's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.8 pts in week 12 against +3.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Cowboys15.6%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 41.5 points above their season mean of 25.2% and 1.5 times their own 28.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%66 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Cody FordT · Every snap100%66 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%66 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%66 snaps
15John BrownWR · Full-time92%61 snaps
10Cole BeasleyWR · Full-time89%59 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational45%30 snaps
16Robert FosterWR · Rotational42%28 snaps
20Frank GoreRB · Situational21%14 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational20%13 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Situational18%12 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational12%8 snaps
21Jordan PoyerFS · Situational2%1 snap
18Andre RobertsWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Dean MarloweDBVincent TaylorDTT.J. YeldonRBIke BoettgerTTy NsekheTTommy SweeneyTEDuke WilliamsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt BarkleyQB
Dallas Cowboys
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%76 snaps
72Travis FrederickC · Every snap100%76 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%76 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%76 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time88%67 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time88%67 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Full-time86%65 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time83%63 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Heavy rotation72%55 snaps
76Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Heavy rotation54%41 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Rotational46%35 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational33%25 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Rotational25%19 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Situational14%11 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational7%5 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational3%2 snaps
83Ventell BryantWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Joe JacksonDEAntwaun WoodsDTLeighton Vander EschLBJeff HeathSSBrandon KnightTDevin SmithWRCed WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Deante BurtonCBCooper RushQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 98-S.Lotulelei [58-M.Milano] at DAL 29. 98-S.Lotulelei to DAL 29 for no gain (20-T.Pollard).
Q2 5:38 · Cowboys · 2nd & 10 at DAL 37 · gained nothing · -5.46 EP · −16.3% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 86 yards from the BUF 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
784
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.0285%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.2755%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.8667%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.010%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.190%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Bills0Cowboys6
Bills0Cowboys7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bills 7
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Bills 37
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Bills 43
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Cowboys 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 12
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 45
Bills6Cowboys7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Cowboys 25
Bills7Cowboys7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 37
No good4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 28
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Bills 49
Bills13Cowboys7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Cowboys 28
No good15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bills 17
3rd quarter40 plays
Bills16Cowboys7
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Cowboys 20
No good8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bills 25
Bills22Cowboys7
Bills23Cowboys7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Cowboys 15
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bills 6
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Bills26Cowboys7
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Cowboys 8
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bills 22
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 37
Bills26Cowboys13
Bills26Cowboys15
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Bills 15
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Cowboys 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -6.5
Closing total
46.5
Bills moneyline
+256
Cowboys moneyline
-298
Cowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 41 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Bills 4 days · Cowboys 4 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Jason Garrett
(9:06) 4-D.Prescott sacked at BUF 32 for -7 yards (sack split by 90-S.Lawson and 97-J.Phillips).
3rd · 10:06DAL +8% win prob(10:06) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 13-M.Gallup to BUF 28 for 35 yards (29-K.Johnson). Penalty on BUF-29-K.Johnson, Illegal Contact, declined.
2nd · 4:30BUF +7% win prob(4:30) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Billscategory by categoryCowboys
Bills0
Cowboys6
