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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:38 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 24, Lions 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:52, 3rd and 5, on A.Miller — 24.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:52 · 3rd and 5
A.Miller
Bears
(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller to DET 2 for 32 yards (27-J.Coleman).
24.2
Dome
Bears closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Chicago Bears 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 2:52, Bears +24.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.GolladayLionsQ1 11:12(11:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.5pts
D.BloughBearsQ4 0:41(:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough sacked at CHI 39 for -13 yards (58-R.Smith).
19.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bears171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller to DET 2 for 32 yards (27-J.Coleman).
Swing −24.2 for LionsExpected points −3.49 for LionsThe model had Lions 6 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:52DET +24% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller to DET 2 for 32 yards (27-J.Coleman).
4th · 0:41CHI +19% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough sacked at CHI 39 for -13 yards (58-R.Smith).
1st · 11:12DET +16% win prob(11:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:04CHI +15% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET 22. 23-D.Slay to DET 41 for 19 yards (17-A.Miller).
4th · 0:36CHI +14% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep left intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at CHI 10. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 14 for 4 yards (82-L.Thomas).
4th · 0:58DET +14% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short middle to 31-T.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 42 for 7 yards (58-R.Smith). PENALTY on CHI-58-R.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 42.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Montgomery's 3-yard touchdown catch with 2:22 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th10:51M.Prater·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+317–20
4th2:22D.Montgomery·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom M.Trubiskyfrom M.TrubiskyLead never changed again+724–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryLions
Bears6–1Lions
420Total yards364
6.9Yards per play5.4
57%Success rate37%
50%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
22First downs17
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Bears: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.02Lions: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Bears: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.09Lions: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Bears: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.19Lions: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Lions’s 67 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bears 4, Lions 4.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.5% in week 12 against 7.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Lions7.1%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 19.3 points below their season mean of 19.3% and 1.1 times their own 17.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Blough pass+21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:12 · Lions · 3rd & 10 at DET 25 · gained 75 · +6.72 EP · +21.0% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 95 yards from the CHI 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
783
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0771%
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR27+0.4470%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.1462%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2823%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4543%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Bears6Lions0
Bears7Lions0
Touchdown9 plays, from midfield to the Lions 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Bears7Lions6
Bears7Lions7
Touchdown5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Bears7Lions13
Bears7Lions14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Bears 8
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 17
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 45 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Lions 32
Bears7Lions17
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Bears 7
Bears10Lions17
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Lions 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 40
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Lions 33
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bears16Lions17
Bears17Lions17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Lions 18
The period ended10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 42
4th quarter53 plays
Bears17Lions20
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 28
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Lions 39
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Bears23Lions20
Bears24Lions20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Lions 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted17 plays, from the Lions 17 to the Bears 26
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
