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Cleveland Browns 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers 20. Final.
Browns -1 upsetU 40 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Browns 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:30, 1st and 10, on T.Mitchell — 18.6 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:30 · 1st and 10
T.Mitchell
Browns
(7:30) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at CLE 42. 39-T.Mitchell to PIT 30 for 28 yards (18-D.Johnson).
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 7:30, Browns +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.WashingtonSteelersQ3 13:01(13:01) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep right to 13-J.Washington pushed ob at CLE 15 for 44 yards (21-D.Ward).
9.9pts
D.HodgesSteelersQ3 10:47(10:47) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Cain (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at CLE 12 - No Play.
11.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers won this one — 4 of 10 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Browns157 of 169 plays carry both curves
(7:30) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at CLE 42. 39-T.Mitchell to PIT 30 for 28 yards (18-D.Johnson).
Swing −18.6 for SteelersExpected points −5.05 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 3 points higher than the market did.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:30CLE +19% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at CLE 42. 39-T.Mitchell to PIT 30 for 28 yards (18-D.Johnson).
3rd · 10:47PIT +11% win prob(10:47) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Cain (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at CLE 12 - No Play.
3rd · 13:01PIT +10% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep right to 13-J.Washington pushed ob at CLE 15 for 44 yards (21-D.Ward).
4th · 6:28CLE +10% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at PIT 38 for -8 yards (79-J.Hargrave).
3rd · 4:59CLE +9% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 44 for -8 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-97-C.Heyward at CLE 46. 97-C.Heyward to CLE 46 for no gain (77-W.Teller).
4th · 1:17CLE +8% win prob(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden at PIT 38. 23-J.Haden to CLE 46 for 16 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
B.Snell Jr.'s 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:42 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:34A.Seibert·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–0
3rd10:42B.Snell Jr.·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–17
4th13:51C.Boswell·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+310–20
4th7:34A.Seibert·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+313–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categorySteelers
Browns1–7Steelers
279Total yards326
4.4Yards per play6.3
40%Success rate40%
33%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays7
18First downs17
5Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.03Steelers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Browns: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.27Steelers: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.16Steelers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 63 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Steelers’s 52 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Steelers 3.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 33.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, −13.8 pts, is past their previous low of −11.2 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +3.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Steelers17.9%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 20.0 points below their season mean of 53.3% and 1.4 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Hodges pass−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:30) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at CLE 42. 39-T.Mitchell to PIT 30 for 28 yards (18-D.Johnson).
Q4 7:30 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 25 · gained nothing · -5.05 EP · −13.7% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 74 yards from the PIT 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
37%
Yards
602
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1658%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2267%
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR14-0.1550%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1346%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.410%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Browns3Steelers0
Field goal16 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 6
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 45
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 43
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 19
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 28
Browns9Steelers0
Browns10Steelers0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Steelers 15
Browns10Steelers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Browns 19
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Browns10Steelers9
Browns10Steelers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Browns 30
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Browns 7 to the Browns 36
3rd quarter33 plays
Browns10Steelers16
Browns10Steelers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Browns 1
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 38
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Browns 9
4th quarter49 plays
Browns10Steelers20
Field goal3 plays, from the Browns 7 to the Browns 3
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Browns 21
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 46
Browns13Steelers20
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Steelers 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt16 plays, from the Steelers 1 to the Steelers 47
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 40
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -1
Closing total
40
Browns moneyline
-113
Steelers moneyline
+103
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 33 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 42°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-east; 0.11 in of precipitation; dense drizzle.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Browns 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Freddie Kitchens vs Mike Tomlin
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 1:12PIT +8% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left to 14-T.Jones to CLE 30 for 28 yards (26-G.Williams).
3rd · 5:25CLE +8% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry to PIT 34 for 4 yards (23-J.Haden). PENALTY on CLE-74-C.Hubbard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 38 - No Play.
