2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · Heinz Field

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

CLE -1 upsetU 40 ✓Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 7:30, CLE +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:30CLE — PIT PIT ball · 1st & 10PIT 86%

(7:30) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at CLE 42. 39-T.Mitchell to PIT 30 for 28 yards (18-D.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:30CLE +19% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at CLE 42. 39-T.Mitchell to PIT 30 for 28 yards (18-D.Johnson).
Q3 · 10:47PIT +11% win prob(10:47) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Cain (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at CLE 12 - No Play.
Q3 · 13:01PIT +10% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep right to 13-J.Washington pushed ob at CLE 15 for 44 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q4 · 6:28CLE +10% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at PIT 38 for -8 yards (79-J.Hargrave).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Steelers
Offensive plays	63	52
Total yards	279	326 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	40%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	4/12	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	14	62	7:29	Turnover on downs
2	PIT	PIT 41	5	-9	2:22	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 26	7	15	4:12	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 15	6	18	2:35	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 30	11	70	5:42	Touchdown
6	PIT	PIT 17	11	67	4:44	Turnover on downs
7	CLE	CLE 20	5	4	1:08	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 31	6	69	0:48	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 7	8	32	1:00	Turnover on downs
10	PIT	PIT 31	9	78	4:24	Touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 25	11	36	5:47	Fumble
12	PIT	CLE 46	10	40	6:01	Turnover on downs
13	CLE	CLE 18	5	2	1:38	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 39	4	12	1:52	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 23	7	61	2:48	Turnover on downs
16	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:12	Interception
17	CLE	PIT 30	4	-8	1:43	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 1	11	51	3:50	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 20	3	5	0:39	Interception
20	PIT	CLE 46	2	0	1:06	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -1
Closing total: 40
CLE moneyline: -113
PIT moneyline: +103

Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 33 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CLE 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Freddie Kitchens vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.