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Green Bay Packers 31 at New York Giants 13. Final.
Packers -6.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Green Bay Packers 31, Giants 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 8:46, 3rd and 12, on C.Latimer — 9.2 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:46 · 3rd and 12
C.Latimer
Giants
(8:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 12-C.Latimer to GB 27 for 43 yards (38-T.Williams).
Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Green Bay Packers 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 8:46, Giants +9.2% win probability on one snap.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.ShepardGiantsQ1 3:23(3:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-Z.Smith].
8.7pts
A.LazardPackersQ1 1:23(1:23) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 14 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Packers158 of 168 plays carry both curves
(8:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 12-C.Latimer to GB 27 for 43 yards (38-T.Williams).
Swing +9.2 for GiantsExpected points +4.37 for GiantsThe model had Giants 12 points higher than the market did.play 101
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:46NYG +9% win prob(8:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 12-C.Latimer to GB 27 for 43 yards (38-T.Williams).
1st · 3:23NYG +9% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-Z.Smith].
1st · 1:23NYG +8% win prob(1:23) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:29NYG +8% win prob(14:29) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
3rd · 4:24NYG +6% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-G.Allison to NYG 20 for 15 yards (34-G.Haley) [44-M.Golden].
3rd · 6:42NYG +6% win prob(6:42) 2-A.Rosas 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
3rd · 5:20
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Lazard's 37-yard touchdown catch with 1:23 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Packers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.11Giants: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.57Packers: +0.57 expected points added per play
−0.07Giants: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Packers: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.17Giants: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 57 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Giants 3.
NoteGiants outgained Packers 335-326 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
NYG's pass rate over expected, −7.5 pts, is past their previous low of −4.1 pts in week 12 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 13.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.5 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: −9.3 pts in week 12 against +6.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Giants5.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.5 pts, 8.6 points below their season mean of 1.1 pts and 1.9 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 12-C.Latimer to GB 27 for 43 yards (38-T.Williams).
Q3 8:46 · Giants · 3rd & 12 at NYG 30 · gained 43 · +4.37 EP · +14.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 77 yards from the NYG 6 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
43%
Yards
657
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.2072%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.4170%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0133%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1138%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.4663%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Giants 31
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Packers6Giants0
Packers7Giants0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Giants 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Packers7Giants6
Packers7Giants7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Packers 18
Packers13Giants7
Packers14Giants7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Giants 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 28
2nd quarter47 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Packers17Giants7
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Giants 29
Packers17Giants10
Field goal21 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Packers 9
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 26
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Packers17Giants13
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Packers 27
The period ended16 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Giants 1
4th quarter47 plays
Packers23Giants13
Packers24Giants13
Touchdown4 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Packers 45
Packers30Giants13
Packers31Giants13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 1
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 35
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Giants 47
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Giants 6 to the Packers 17
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Packers 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -6.5
Closing total
43.5
Packers moneyline
-256
Giants moneyline
+223
Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 33°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the north-east; 0.21 in of precipitation; moderate snow.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Packers 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Pat Shurmur
NYG +6% win prob
(5:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on NYG-23-S.Beal, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at NYG 46 - No Play.
1st · 13:24GB +4% win prob(13:24) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to NYG 28 for -3 yards (97-K.Clark).
