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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChargersLos Angeles20
BY 3final margin
BroncosDenver23
Los Angeles Chargers 20 at Denver Broncos 23. Final.
Chargers -4.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Denver Broncos 23, Chargers 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:22, 4th and 11, on M.Williams — 36.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:22 · 4th and 11
M.Williams
Chargers
(2:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 38 for 38 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
O 39 ✓
25°F
Chargers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:22, Chargers +36.4% win probability on one snap.
36.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.AllenBroncosQ4 1:04(1:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to DEN 29 for no gain (31-J.Simmons).
21.7pts
D.LockBroncosQ4 0:09(:09) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on LAC-26-C.Hayward, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at DEN 28 - No Play.
31.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Chargers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chargers156 of 167 plays carry both curves
(2:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 38 for 38 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
Swing −36.4 for BroncosExpected points −3.86 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 4 points higher than the market did.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:22DEN +36% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 38 for 38 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
4th · 0:09DEN +32% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on LAC-26-C.Hayward, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at DEN 28 - No Play.
4th · 1:04LAC +22% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to DEN 29 for no gain (31-J.Simmons).
4th · 12:28DEN +21% win prob(12:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:03DEN +15% win prob(:03) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
2nd · 7:54DEN +14% win prob(7:54) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 35-T.Pope MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at LAC 21.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
B.McManus's 53-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th4:31B.McManus·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+317–20
4th0:19M.Badgley·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+320–20
4th0:03B.McManus·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+320–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBroncos
Chargers5–3Broncos
359Total yards218
5.9Yards per play4.1
41%Success rate34%
33%Third-down rate47%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays4
16First downs11
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Chargers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.20Broncos: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.10Broncos: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Chargers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.34Broncos: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 61 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Broncos’s 53 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Broncos 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, −14.2 pts, is past their previous low of −4.9 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.7 times their own weekly swing below their number.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
LAC's early-down pass rate, 40.0%, is past their previous low of 44.9% in week 4 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.2 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos18.8%
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.2 pts, 13.5 points below their season mean of -0.7 pts and 2.7 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+30% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 38 for 38 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
Q4 2:22 · Chargers · 4th & 11 at LAC 24 · gained 38 · +3.86 EP · +30.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 80 yards from the DEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
36%
Yards
577
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0167%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.1067%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0359%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12-0.6517%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.1750%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0817%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 28 to midfield
Chargers0Broncos6
Chargers0Broncos7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Chargers 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
Chargers0Broncos13
Chargers0Broncos14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 5
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Chargers3Broncos14
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Broncos 12
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
Chargers3Broncos17
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 13
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 48
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 26
Chargers9Broncos17
Chargers10Broncos17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Broncos 25
The period ended10 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Chargers 47
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 30
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 49
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Broncos 15
4th quarter42 plays
Punt1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Chargers16Broncos17
Chargers17Broncos17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 38 to the Broncos 36
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
No good4 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 32
Chargers17Broncos20
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Chargers 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Chargers20Broncos20
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 29
Chargers20Broncos23
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Chargers 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -4.5
Closing total
39
Chargers moneyline
-207
Broncos moneyline
+183
Chargers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39; the game landed 43 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 25°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Bradley Rogers
Rest
Chargers 13 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Vic Fangio
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 3:18
LAC +13% win prob
(3:18) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 93-D.Jones at LAC 25. 93-D.Jones to LAC 18 for 7 yards (76-R.Okung; 69-S.Tevi).
4th · 11:41LAC +13% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman at DEN 38. 52-D.Perryman to DEN 38 for no gain (14-C.Sutton).
