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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · State Farm Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles34
BY 27final margin
CardinalsArizona7
Los Angeles Rams 34 at Arizona Cardinals 7. Final.
Rams -2.5 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Los Angeles Rams 34, Cardinals 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:59, 4th and 8, on G.Zuerlein — 8.3 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:59 · 4th and 8
G.Zuerlein
Cardinals
(5:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Dome
Rams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 27.
Los Angeles Rams 34–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:59, Cardinals +8.3% win probability on one snap.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.WoodsRamsQ1 13:12(13:12) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods ran ob at ARI 29 for 14 yards.
5.6pts
K.MurrayRamsQ1 4:10(4:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 47 for -12 yards (56-D.Fowler).
7.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 15 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 2 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.49 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.61 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.48 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Rams173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(5:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Swing +8.3 for CardinalsExpected points +4.21 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 14 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:59LA +8% win prob(5:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
1st · 4:10LA +8% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 47 for -12 yards (56-D.Fowler).
1st · 13:12ARI +6% win prob(13:12) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods ran ob at ARI 29 for 14 yards.
1st · 14:21ARI +5% win prob(14:21) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at ARI 44 for 25 yards (34-J.Thompson).
1st · 3:15ARI +5% win prob(3:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to LA 38 for 19 yards (33-B.Murphy Jr.).
1st · 8:15ARI +5% win prob(8:15) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at ARI 25 for 21 yards.
1st · 2:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
G.Zuerlein's 27-yard field goal with 10:00 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:00G.Zuerlein·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+33–0
Rams ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Rams: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.48Cardinals: −0.48 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Rams: +0.49 expected points added per play
−0.61Cardinals: −0.61 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Rams: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.20Cardinals: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 75 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 61 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Rams 7, Cardinals 1.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 13.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cardinals6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 36.7 points above their season mean of 30.0% and 2.0 times their own 18.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chris JonesCBMichael DogbeDELamont GaillardGPete RobertsonLBZach ZennerRBJoshua MilesTKeeSean JohnsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Brett HundleyQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray sacked−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 47 for -12 yards (56-D.Fowler).
Q1 4:10 · Cardinals · 3rd & 5 at LA 41 · lost 12 · -2.80 EP · −9.1% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 92 yards from the LA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
38%
Yards
747
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.3765%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR27-0.4274%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0240%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.7075%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2031%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6-0.3083%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Rams3Cardinals0
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 9
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
No good7 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Cardinals 18
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Rams 41
The period ended10 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Cardinals 15
2nd quarter53 plays
Rams9Cardinals0
Rams10Cardinals0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Cardinals 2
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 42
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 4 to the Rams 37
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 33
Rams16Cardinals0
Rams17Cardinals0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Cardinals 1
Punt7 plays
Rams20Cardinals0
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Cardinals 15
3rd quarter50 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 49
Rams26Cardinals0
Rams27Cardinals0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Cardinals 10
Rams33Cardinals0
Touchdown3 plays
Rams34Cardinals0
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 49
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 12
The period ended10 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Cardinals 28
4th quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Cardinals 19
Rams34Cardinals6
Rams34Cardinals7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Rams 15
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 25
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Rams 28
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 30
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
