2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · NRG Stadium
New England Patriots
22
Houston TexansWinner
28
Houston Texans 28–22. Biggest swing: Q1 2:05, NE +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 15-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NE 28. 21-B.Roby to NE 6 for 22 yards (12-T.Brady). PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 2:05NE +13% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 15-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NE 28. 21-B.Roby to NE 6 for 22 yards (12-T.Brady). PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 6.
- Q3 · 0:17HOU +8% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 0:45HOU +8% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 25-D.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 5:08HOU +8% win prob(5:08) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 83-M.LaCosse to NE 49 for 24 yards (55-B.McKinney).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 80 | 49 |
| Total yards | 448 (edge) | 279 |
| Yards per play | 5.6 | 5.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.05 | 0.16 (edge) |
| Success rate | 40% | 41% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 61% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.09 | 0.41 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.01 (edge) | -0.25 |
| Third downs | 9/17 | 6/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 11 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 26 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Patriots outgained Texans 448–279 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 0 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 2 | NE | NE 26 | 14 | 54 | 7:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 25 | 8 | 31 | 4:15 | Punt | |
| 4 | NE | NE 19 | 3 | 6 | 0:51 | Interception | |
| 5 | HOU | NE 21 | 4 | 21 | 1:20 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | NE | NE 25 | 8 | 20 | 2:25 | Punt | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 12 | 14 | 88 | 6:52 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | NE | NE 22 | 9 | 36 | 3:53 | Punt | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 10 | 4 | 6 | 1:23 | Punt | |
| 10 | NE | NE 31 | 8 | 30 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 5 | 1 | 0 | 0:15 | End of half | |
| 12 | NE | NE 25 | 6 | -6 | 2:29 | Punt | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 31 | 4 | 6 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 14 | NE | NE 7 | 8 | 51 | 3:39 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | HOU | HOU 42 | 7 | 58 | 1:27 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | NE | NE 25 | 14 | 105 | 5:30 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | HOU | HOU 25 | 11 | 70 | 5:18 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | NE | NE 25 | 15 | 63 | 6:11 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | HOU | NE 42 | 5 | -1 | 1:06 | Punt | |
| 20 | NE | NE 6 | 7 | 89 | 1:46 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | HOU | HOU 45 | 3 | 0 | 0:50 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 105 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -3.5
- Closing total
- 47
- NE moneyline
- -172
- HOU moneyline
- +154
Patriots closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 50 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- NRG Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Tony Corrente
- Rest
- NE 7 days · HOU 10 days
- Coaches
- Bill Belichick vs Bill O'Brien