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New England Patriots 22 at Houston Texans 28. Final.
Patriots -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Houston Texans 28, Patriots 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 2:05, 3rd and 4, on B.Roby — 12.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:05 · 3rd and 4
B.Roby
Texans
(2:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 15-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NE 28. 21-B.Roby to NE 6 for 22 yards (12-T.Brady). PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 6.
O 47 ✓
Dome
Patriots closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 28–22. Biggest swing: Q1 2:05, Texans +12.6% win probability on one snap.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.JohnsonTexansQ1 0:45(:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 25-D.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.4pts
J.WhitePatriotsQ3 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Texans at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Patriots171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(2:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 15-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NE 28. 21-B.Roby to NE 6 for 22 yards (12-T.Brady). PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at
Swing +12.6 for TexansExpected points +5.08 for TexansThe model had Texans 14 points higher than the market did.play 33
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:05NE +13% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 15-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NE 28. 21-B.Roby to NE 6 for 22 yards (12-T.Brady). PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 6.
3rd · 0:17HOU +8% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:45HOU +8% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 25-D.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:08HOU +8% win prob(5:08) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 83-M.LaCosse to NE 49 for 24 yards (55-B.McKinney).
3rd · 7:14NE +7% win prob(7:14) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 14-M.Sanu (24-J.Joseph).
2nd · 1:12HOU +7% win prob(1:12) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NE 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu. Punt Hangtime: 4.59s
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Johnson's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:45 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:07K.Forbath·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–0
1st0:45D.Johnson·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Watsonfrom D.WatsonLead never changed again+73–7
Texans ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Patriots: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.16Texans: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Patriots: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.41Texans: +0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Patriots: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.25Texans: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 80 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Texans’s 49 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Texans 4.
NotePatriots outgained Texans 448-279 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, −11.5 pts, is past their previous low of −6.7 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
79 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Texans21.2%
leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.5 pts, 11.4 points below their season mean of -0.1 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%87 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%87 snaps
76Isaiah WynnT · Every snap100%87 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%87 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Full-time94%82 snaps
11Julian EdelmanWR · Full-time92%80 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Heavy rotation78%68 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Heavy rotation71%62 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Heavy rotation70%61 snaps
83Matt LaCosseTE · Heavy rotation61%53 snaps
84Benjamin WatsonTE · Heavy rotation54%47 snaps
66James FerentzC · Heavy rotation51%44 snaps
75Ted KarrasC · Rotational49%43 snaps
15N'Keal HarryWR · Rotational25%22 snaps
14Mohamed SanuWR · Situational22%19 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Situational17%15 snaps
72Marshall NewhouseT · Situational6%5 snaps
34Rex BurkheadRB · Situational5%4 snaps
52Elandon RobertsMLB · Situational3%3 snaps
38Brandon BoldenRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jason McCourtyCBByron CowartDECody KesslerQBDamien HarrisRBJermaine EluemunorTKorey CunninghamTRyan IzzoTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 15-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NE 28. 21-B.Roby to NE 6 for 22 yards (12-T.Brady). PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 6.
Q1 2:05 · Patriots · 3rd & 4 at NE 25 · gained nothing · -5.08 EP · −15.8% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 94 yards from the NE 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
37%
Yards
724
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.1170%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.4962%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.5462%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1936%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.0543%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays
Patriots3Texans0
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Texans 5
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Patriots 46
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Patriots 25
Patriots3Texans6
Patriots3Texans7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 14
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 28
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 45
Patriots3Texans13
Patriots3Texans14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Patriots 13
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Texans 48
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 16
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Texans 39
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 37
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 7 to the Texans 42
Patriots3Texans20
Patriots3Texans21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Patriots 35
Patriots9Texans21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Texans 12
No good1 play
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Patriots9Texans27
Patriots9Texans28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Patriots 6
Patriots15Texans28
Touchdown17 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Texans 11
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Patriots 40
Patriots21Texans28
Patriots22Texans28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Texans 20
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Patriotscategory by categoryTexans
Patriots3
Texans0
