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New Orleans Saints 26 at Atlanta Falcons 18. Final.
Saints -7 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
New Orleans Saints 26, Falcons 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:41, 1st and 10, on J.Graham — 7.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:41 · 1st and 10
J.Graham
Falcons
(12:41) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 87-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
New Orleans Saints 26–18. Biggest swing: Q2 12:41, Falcons +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Y.KooSaintsQ2 4:01(4:01) 7-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
7.4pts
S.TuttleSaintsQ3 2:03(2:03) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 99-S.Tuttle at NO 42. 99-S.Tuttle to ATL 19 for 39 yards (24-D.Freeman). PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 39.
6.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Saints at 2 of 10 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Falcons at 1 chunk play.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Saints175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(12:41) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 87-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.9 for FalconsExpected points +2.01 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 23 points higher than the market did.play 45
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:41ATL +8% win prob(12:41) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 87-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:01NO +7% win prob(4:01) 7-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
3rd · 2:03NO +6% win prob(2:03) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 99-S.Tuttle at NO 42. 99-S.Tuttle to ATL 19 for 39 yards (24-D.Freeman). PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 39.
4th · 1:56NO +6% win prob7-Y.Koo kicks onside 12 yards from ATL 35 to ATL 47. RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael.
2nd · 12:47ATL +6% win prob(12:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Ridley. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 35 yards, enforced at ATL 47 - No Play.
2nd · 10:22ATL +5% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at ATL 10 for 40 yards (45-D.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Hill's 3-yard touchdown catch with 11:12 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:12T.Hill·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Breesfrom D.BreesLead never changed again+77–0
4th2:00Y.Koo·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+326–18
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Saints5–4Falcons
280Total yards348
5.8Yards per play4.1
44%Success rate41%
20%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays1
14First downs24
0Sacks taken9
0Turnovers3
The read
Saints ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Saints: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.26Falcons: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.28Falcons: −0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Saints: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.19Falcons: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 48 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Falcons’s 85 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Falcons 3.
NoteFalcons outgained Saints 348-280 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, +10.6 pts, is past their previous high of +8.7 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
48 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Falcons3.2%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.6 pts, 6.5 points above their season mean of 4.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%49 snaps
60Patrick OmamehG · Every snap100%49 snaps
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%49 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%49 snaps
62Nick EastonG · Every snap100%49 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Full-time96%47 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time82%40 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time80%39 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation73%36 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation59%29 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation57%28 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Heavy rotation55%27 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Rotational27%13 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational27%13 snaps
81Krishawn HoganWR · Situational20%10 snaps
64Will ClappC · Situational12%6 snaps
86Jason Vander LaanTE · Situational10%5 snaps
43Marcus WilliamsFS · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Patrick RobinsonCBSaquan HamptonDBCarl GrandersonDEZach LineFBAndrus PeatTTerron ArmsteadTDan ArnoldTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Teddy BridgewaterQBEthan GreenidgeT
Atlanta Falcons
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
51Alex MackC · Every snap100%91 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%91 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%91 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%91 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%91 snaps
18Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time93%85 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Full-time90%82 snaps
68Jamon BrownG · Heavy rotation79%72 snaps
83Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation68%62 snaps
24Devonta FreemanRB · Heavy rotation66%60 snaps
87Jaeden GrahamTE · Heavy rotation58%53 snaps
85Carson MeierTE · Rotational29%26 snaps
14Justin HardyWR · Rotational29%26 snaps
23Brian HillHB · Rotational26%24 snaps
77James CarpenterG · Situational21%19 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Situational18%16 snaps
74Ty SambrailoT · Situational9%8 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational8%7 snaps
38Kenjon BarnerRB · Situational7%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
John CominskyDEDeadrin SenatNTMatt GonoTLuke StockerTEAustin HooperTEBrandon PowellWRJulio JonesWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt SchaubQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:03) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 99-S.Tuttle at NO 42. 99-S.Tuttle to ATL 19 for 39 yards (24-D.Freeman). PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 39.
Q3 2:03 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at NO 40 · gained nothing · -6.30 EP · −13.2% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 77 yards from the NO 19 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
41%
Yards
627
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0874%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0464%
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR16-0.3994%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.7550%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.5544%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2060%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
Saints6Falcons0
Saints7Falcons0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 3
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Saints 39
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 2 to the Saints 22
The period ended11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 11
2nd quarter55 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 2 to the Saints 10
Saints7Falcons6
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Saints 18
Saints10Falcons6
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Falcons 4
No good12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 25
Saints16Falcons6
Saints17Falcons6
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Falcons 30
Saints17Falcons9
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Saints 24
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Falcons 38
Saints20Falcons9
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Falcons 29
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 40
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 6 to the Falcons 9
4th quarter56 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Falcons 27 to midfield
Saints23Falcons9
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Falcons 24
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Saints26Falcons9
Field goal6 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Falcons 27
Saints26Falcons15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 13
Saints26Falcons18
Field goal10 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -7
Closing total
48
Saints moneyline
-319
Falcons moneyline
+272
Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 48; the game landed 44 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Saints 4 days · Falcons 4 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Dan Quinn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 15:00NO +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 13-C.Blake (94-C.Jordan).
1st · 15:00NO +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 18 for -7 yards (92-M.Davenport). FUMBLES (92-M.Davenport) [92-M.Davenport], and recovers at ATL 18. 2-M.Ryan to ATL 18 for no gain (90-M.Brown).
