2019 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 28, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
New Orleans SaintsWinner
26
Atlanta Falcons
18
New Orleans Saints 26–18. Biggest swing: Q2 12:41, ATL +8% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(12:41) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 87-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 12:41ATL +8% win prob(12:41) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 87-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 4:01NO +7% win prob(4:01) 7-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
- Q3 · 2:03NO +6% win prob(2:03) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 99-S.Tuttle at NO 42. 99-S.Tuttle to ATL 19 for 39 yards (24-D.Freeman). PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 39.
- Q4 · 1:56NO +6% win prob7-Y.Koo kicks onside 12 yards from ATL 35 to ATL 47. RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Saints | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 48 | 85 |
| Total yards | 280 | 348 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.8 (edge) | 4.1 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.01 (edge) | -0.26 |
| Success rate | 44% (edge) | 41% |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 73% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 (edge) | -0.28 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.05 (edge) | -0.19 |
| Third downs | 2/10 | 7/16 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 1 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 24 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 9 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 3 |
Falcons outgained Saints 348–280 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | -3 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 2 | NO | ATL 30 | 5 | 30 | 1:56 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | ATL | ATL 45 | 8 | 15 | 3:22 | Punt | |
| 4 | NO | NO 2 | 6 | 20 | 2:57 | Punt | |
| 5 | ATL | ATL 25 | 9 | 36 | 4:51 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | NO | NO 2 | 4 | 8 | 1:26 | Punt | |
| 7 | ATL | ATL 45 | 4 | 20 | 0:56 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | NO | NO 19 | 9 | 72 | 3:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | ATL | ATL 25 | 12 | 50 | 5:08 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | NO | NO 32 | 5 | 68 | 2:04 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | ATL | ATL 25 | 10 | 53 | 1:50 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | NO | — | 1 | 0 | 0:03 | End of half | |
| 13 | NO | NO 9 | 7 | 15 | 2:17 | Punt | |
| 14 | ATL | ATL 34 | 4 | -5 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 15 | NO | NO 20 | 10 | 51 | 4:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | ATL | ATL 25 | 10 | 35 | 4:02 | Interception | |
| 17 | NO | ATL 49 | 4 | -1 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 18 | ATL | ATL 6 | 8 | 40 | 4:08 | Interception | |
| 19 | NO | ATL 29 | 4 | 5 | 1:31 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | 2 | 1:33 | Fumble | |
| 21 | NO | ATL 39 | 6 | 12 | 2:14 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | ATL | ATL 25 | 11 | 75 | 3:01 | Touchdown | |
| 23 | NO | ATL 41 | 9 | 34 | 1:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | NO | ATL 47 | 7 | -4 | 1:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | NO | ATL 48 | 1 | 0 | 0:38 | End of game |
0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -7
- Closing total
- 48
- NO moneyline
- -319
- ATL moneyline
- +272
Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 48; the game landed 44 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Shawn Smith
- Rest
- NO 4 days · ATL 4 days
- Coaches
- Sean Payton vs Dan Quinn
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.