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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:11 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
JetsNew York6
BY 16final margin
BengalsCincinnati22
New York Jets 6 at Cincinnati Bengals 22. Final.
Jets -2.5 upsetU 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals 22, Jets 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 3rd and 3, on S.Darnold — 10.0 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 3rd and 3
S.Darnold
Bengals
(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 5 for -10 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
10.0
15 mph wind
Jets closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 22–6. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Bengals +10.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.BoydBengalsQ1 1:17(1:17) (No Huddle) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.5pts
R.BullockJetsQ3 11:11(11:11) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
7.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 2 chunk plays, against Bengals at 0 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bengals won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Jets169 of 182 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 5 for -10 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
Swing +10.0 for BengalsExpected points +2.34 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 17 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00NYJ +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 5 for -10 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
1st · 1:17CIN +8% win prob(1:17) (No Huddle) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:11NYJ +7% win prob(11:11) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
2nd · 11:28CIN +7% win prob(11:28) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-T.Boyd to NYJ 14 for 17 yards (37-M.Canady).
1st · 5:31NYJ +7% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 20 for -8 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
2nd · 2:00CIN +6% win prob(2:00) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 83-T.Boyd. PENALTY on NYJ-46-N.Hewitt, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at NYJ 44 - No Play.
2nd · 7:11
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Boyd's 17-yard touchdown catch with 1:17 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:12S.Ficken·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+33–0
1st1:17T.Boyd·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom A.Daltonfrom A.DaltonLead never changed again+73–7
2nd9:17R.Bullock·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–10
2nd0:09S.Ficken·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+36–17
3rd5:46Bengals·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+26–19
3rd1:19R.Bullock·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+36–22
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBengals
Jets2–6Bengals
271Total yards283
3.9Yards per play4.8
36%Success rate41%
39%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays0
15First downs17
4Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Jets: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Jets: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.06Bengals: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Jets: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.20Bengals: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 69 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Bengals’s 59 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Jets 0, Bengals 4.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 73.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 12.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals16.7%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.5%, 17.8 points above their season mean of 55.7% and 1.8 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+7% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:29) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at NYJ 35 for 10 yards (23-A.Maulet).
Q1 2:29 · Bengals · 3rd & 4 at NYJ 45 · gained 10 · +1.59 EP · +7.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 91 yards from the CIN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
35%
Yards
548
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0067%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.2786%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.3929%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.2271%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.5340%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Jets3Bengals0
Field goal14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bengals 24
Drive ended6 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 49
Punt5 plays
Jets3Bengals6
Jets3Bengals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Jets 17
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 12
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays
Jets3Bengals10
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 6
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bengals 40
Jets3Bengals16
Jets3Bengals17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Jets 5
Jets6Bengals17
Field goal16 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Bengals 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
No good11 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Jets 30
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 40
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Jets 45
Jets6Bengals19
Drive ended3 plays, from the Jets 2 to the Jets 3
Jets6Bengals22
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 29
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 45
4th quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 12
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 46
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Bengals 36
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 47
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Bengals 43
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
