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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:58 AM ET · 16 to play
Oakland Raiders 9 at Kansas City Chiefs 40. Final.
Chiefs -11.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs 40, Raiders 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:05, 2nd and 12, on T.Mathieu — 4.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:05 · 2nd and 12
T.Mathieu
Chiefs
(11:05) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 83-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC 48. 32-T.Mathieu to LV 47 for 5 yards (85-D.Carrier).
18.4 mph wind
Chiefs closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Kansas City Chiefs 40–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:05, Chiefs +4.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
4.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ1 7:267-H.Butker kicks 55 yards from KC 35 to LV 10. 11-T.Davis to LV 24 for 14 yards (27-R.Fenton). FUMBLES (27-R.Fenton), RECOVERED by KC-44-D.O'Daniel at LV 24. 44-D.O'Daniel to LV 24 for no gain (33-D.Washington).
4.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ2 12:53(12:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LV 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
3.4pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Raiders152 of 157 plays carry both curves
(11:05) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 83-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC 48. 32-T.Mathieu to LV 47 for 5 yards (85-D.Carrier).
Swing +4.5 for ChiefsExpected points +3.80 for ChiefsThe model had Raiders 27 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:05OAK +4% win prob(11:05) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 83-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC 48. 32-T.Mathieu to LV 47 for 5 yards (85-D.Carrier).
1st · 7:26OAK +4% win prob7-H.Butker kicks 55 yards from KC 35 to LV 10. 11-T.Davis to LV 24 for 14 yards (27-R.Fenton). FUMBLES (27-R.Fenton), RECOVERED by KC-44-D.O'Daniel at LV 24. 44-D.O'Daniel to LV 24 for no gain (33-D.Washington).
2nd · 12:53OAK +3% win prob(12:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LV 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
2nd · 9:58OAK +3% win prob(9:58) 11-T.Davis right end to KC 40 for no gain (22-J.Thornhill).
1st · 13:36KC +2% win prob(13:36) (No Huddle) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to LV 34 for 8 yards (92-T.Kpassagnon).
1st · 9:47KC +2% win prob(9:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-L.McCoy pushed ob at LV 26 for 9 yards (27-T.Mullen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Williams's 3-yard touchdown catch with 7:32 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:32D.Williams·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom P.Mahomesfrom P.MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 19 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Chiefs5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.4 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 11.1 points below their season mean of 61.1% and 1.3 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%65 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%65 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Full-time98%64 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time91%59 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time80%52 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational38%25 snaps
25LeSean McCoyRB · Rotational37%24 snaps
34Darwin ThompsonRB · Rotational35%23 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Rotational26%17 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational9%6 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Situational8%5 snaps
12Gehrig DieterWR · Situational5%3 snaps
61Stefen WisniewskiG · Situational2%1 snap
8Matt MooreQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jordan LucasCBNick AllegrettiGDemone HarrisLBChad HenneQBDamien WilliamsRBJackson BartonTDeon YelderTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cameron ErvingG
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
H.Butker kicks−10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
7-H.Butker kicks 55 yards from KC 35 to LV 10. 11-T.Davis to LV 24 for 14 yards (27-R.Fenton). FUMBLES (27-R.Fenton), RECOVERED by KC-44-D.O'Daniel at LV 24. 44-D.O'Daniel to LV 24 for no gain (33-D.Washington).
Q1 7:26 · Raiders · Kickoff at KC 35 · gained nothing · -5.77 EP · −9.6% win probability
150 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
49%
Yards
591
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1566%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1668%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.1835%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.4338%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.2125%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4783%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 36
Raiders0Chiefs6
Raiders0Chiefs7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 47 to the Raiders 3
Fumble lost1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 15
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Chiefs 33
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 7 to the Chiefs 36
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Chiefs 40
Raiders0Chiefs13
Raiders0Chiefs14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Raiders 13
Raiders0Chiefs20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 40
Raiders0Chiefs21
No good9 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Chiefs 19
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chiefs 41
3rd quarter39 plays
Raiders0Chiefs24
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Raiders 32
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 26
Raiders0Chiefs30
Raiders0Chiefs31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Raiders 3
The period ended14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 14
4th quarter34 plays
Raiders3Chiefs31
Field goal1 play
Raiders3Chiefs37
Raiders3Chiefs38
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 4
Raiders9Chiefs38
Raiders9Chiefs40
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 4
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -11.5
Closing total
49.5
Raiders moneyline
+369
Chiefs moneyline
-451
Chiefs closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 49 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 35°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Chiefs 13 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 18.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 12:08
OAK +2% win prob
(12:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 28-J.Jacobs to LV 41 for 5 yards (59-R.Ragland). PENALTY on LV-83-D.Waller, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 36 - No Play.
2nd · 3:52OAK +2% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 16-T.Williams INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at LV 46. 22-J.Thornhill for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
