2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles
31
Miami DolphinsWinner
37
Miami Dolphins 37–31. Biggest swing: Q4 11:11, MIA +16% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(11:11) 42-P.Laird left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 11:11MIA +16% win prob(11:11) 42-P.Laird left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 3:42MIA +10% win prob(3:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
- Q4 · 2:34PHI +10% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIA 21 for -8 yards (96-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (96-T.Charlton), and recovers at MIA 19. 11-C.Wentz to MIA 19 for no gain (49-S.Eguavoen).
- Q4 · 13:56MIA +10% win prob(13:56) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 33 for 21 yards (23-R.McLeod).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 67 | 64 |
| Total yards | 386 | 412 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.8 | 6.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.13 | 0.19 (edge) |
| Success rate | 45% | 50% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 72% | 72% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.20 | 0.35 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 (edge) | -0.22 |
| Third downs | 7/14 (edge) | 5/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 | 24 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | Interception | |
| 2 | PHI | MIA 18 | 4 | 18 | 0:56 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 1 | 2:34 | Punt | |
| 4 | PHI | MIA 48 | 6 | 18 | 1:10 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | -5 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 6 | PHI | PHI 24 | 7 | 40 | 2:41 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 16 | 7 | 84 | 2:40 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | PHI | PHI 25 | 13 | 55 | 6:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 25 | 15 | 66 | 6:29 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | PHI | PHI 25 | 13 | 80 | 4:34 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 34 | 2 | 0 | 0:06 | End of half | |
| 12 | PHI | MIA 47 | 9 | 47 | 3:16 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 25 | 8 | 75 | 2:59 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | PHI | PHI 25 | 9 | 45 | 4:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 39 | 7 | 46 | 3:24 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | PHI | PHI 25 | 7 | 1 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 4 | 10 | 86 | 3:36 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | PHI | PHI 25 | 5 | 6 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 17 | 13 | 55 | 5:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | PHI | PHI 25 | 8 | 56 | 1:46 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | MIA | MIA 37 | 5 | 4 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 22 | PHI | PHI 31 | 2 | 20 | 0:08 | Interception |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- PHI -10.5
- Closing total
- 45
- PHI moneyline
- -469
- MIA moneyline
- +382
Eagles closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 68 — over by 23.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 82°F, wind 15 mph
- Referee
- Adrian Hill
- Rest
- PHI 7 days · MIA 7 days
- Coaches
- Doug Pederson vs Brian Flores
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.