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2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
EaglesPhiladelphia31
BY 6final margin
DolphinsMiami37
Philadelphia Eagles 31 at Miami Dolphins 37. Final.
Eagles -10.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Miami Dolphins 37, Eagles 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 11:11, 1st and 4, on P.Laird — 15.7 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:11 · 1st and 4
P.Laird
Dolphins
(11:11) 42-P.Laird left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.7
O 45 ✓
Eagles closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 37–31. Biggest swing: Q4 11:11, Dolphins +15.7% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.SandersDolphinsQ4 3:42(3:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
10.2pts
C.WentzDolphinsQ4 2:34(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIA 21 for -8 yards (96-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (96-T.Charlton), and recovers at MIA 19. 11-C.Wentz to MIA 19 for no gain (49-S.Eguavoen).
9.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Eagles at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Eagles at 5 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Eagles177 of 189 plays carry both curves
(11:11) 42-P.Laird left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.7 for DolphinsExpected points +1.05 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 24 points higher than the market did.play 146
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:11MIA +16% win prob(11:11) 42-P.Laird left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:42MIA +10% win prob(3:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
4th · 2:34PHI +10% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIA 21 for -8 yards (96-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (96-T.Charlton), and recovers at MIA 19. 11-C.Wentz to MIA 19 for no gain (49-S.Eguavoen).
4th · 13:56MIA +10% win prob(13:56) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 33 for 21 yards (23-R.McLeod).
3rd · 1:17MIA +9% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:44MIA +9% win prob(4:44) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 2-M.Haack. 2-M.Haack pass short middle to 7-J.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Laird's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 11:11 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th11:11P.Laird·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+828–34
4th3:42J.Sanders·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+328–37
4th1:55J.Elliott·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+331–37
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryDolphins
Eagles2–6Dolphins
386Total yards412
5.8Yards per play6.4
45%Success rate50%
50%Third-down rate42%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays7
22First downs24
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Eagles: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.19Dolphins: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Eagles: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.35Dolphins: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.22Dolphins: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 67 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 64 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 6, Dolphins 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, +19.7 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 9.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +14.3 pts in week 9.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 12.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +5.0 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Dolphins12.5%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 19.7 pts, 14.8 points above their season mean of 4.9 pts and 2.1 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Ken CrawleyCBSteven ParkerDBGerald WillisDTKeaton SutherlandGChris ReedGTrent HarrisLBIsaiah PrinceT
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Sam EguavoenLBJosh RosenQBJulie'n DavenportT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:13 · Eagles · 3rd & goal at MIA 15 · gained 15 · +4.15 EP · +14.4% win probability
175 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 96 yards from the MIA 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
45%
Yards
799
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0767%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.4881%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3081%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.3863%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4160%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Eagles6Dolphins0
Eagles7Dolphins0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 15
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
Eagles10Dolphins0
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 48 to the Dolphins 30
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 41
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Eagles 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Eagles10Dolphins6
Eagles10Dolphins7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Eagles 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 46
2nd quarter47 plays
Eagles13Dolphins7
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 48 to the Dolphins 20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Offense on the fieldSeven linemen, one tight end, one punter, one lineman and one kickerDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles13Dolphins13
Eagles13Dolphins14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Eagles 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.2 seconds
Eagles19Dolphins14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Dolphins 10
Eagles21Dolphins14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Eagles27Dolphins14
Eagles28Dolphins14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Dolphins 10
Eagles28Dolphins20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Eagles 17
No good9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Dolphins 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Eagles28Dolphins26
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 39 to the Eagles 14
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to midfield
4th quarter55 plays
Punt2 plays
Eagles28Dolphins32
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 4 to the Eagles 4
Eagles28Dolphins34
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
Eagles28Dolphins37
Field goal18 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Eagles 30
Eagles31Dolphins37
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Dolphins 13
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Dolphins 41
Intercepted2 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Dolphins 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
