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2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco17
BY 3final margin
RavensBaltimore20
San Francisco 49ers 17 at Baltimore Ravens 20. Final.
Ravens -5.5 no coverU 45 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Baltimore Ravens 20, 49ers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 6:33, 4th and 1, on J.Garoppolo — 19.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:33 · 4th and 1
J.Garoppolo
Ravens
(6:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 85-G.Kittle (93-C.Wormley).
19.2
Ravens closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:33, Ravens +19.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.Samuel49ersQ1 12:00(12:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.6pts
J.GaroppoloRavensQ1 6:37(6:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 25 for -6 yards (36-C.Clark). FUMBLES (36-C.Clark) [36-C.Clark], RECOVERED by BAL-98-B.Williams at SF 23. 98-B.Williams to SF 23 for no gain (30-J.Wilson).
14.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.01 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Ravens won this one — 4 of 10 on third down, against 49ers at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on 49ers144 of 155 plays carry both curves
(6:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 85-G.Kittle (93-C.Wormley).
Swing +19.2 for RavensExpected points +3.43 for RavensThe model had Ravens 2 points higher than the market did.play 139
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:33SF +19% win prob(6:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 85-G.Kittle (93-C.Wormley).
1st · 12:00BAL +17% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:37SF +14% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 25 for -6 yards (36-C.Clark). FUMBLES (36-C.Clark) [36-C.Clark], RECOVERED by BAL-98-B.Williams at SF 23. 98-B.Williams to SF 23 for no gain (30-J.Wilson).
4th · 0:03BAL +14% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
2nd · 9:22BAL +11% win prob(9:22) 31-R.Mostert right tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:43BAL +10% win prob(1:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to SF 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine Sr..
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Tucker's 49-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd2:01J.Tucker·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+314–17
3rd3:41R.Gould·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+317–17
4th0:03J.Tucker·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryRavens
49ers2–6Ravens
331Total yards283
6.4Yards per play4.6
42%Success rate48%
33%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays8
14First downs20
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1049ers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.01Ravens: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.0649ers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.07Ravens: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1349ers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.04Ravens: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 52 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Ravens’s 62 at 39%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Ravens 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
SF's pass rate over expected, −15.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 12 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 13.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.6 points.
SF's sack or hit rate, 8.3%, is past their previous low of 10.3% in week 9 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Ravens12.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 56.1 points above their season mean of 43.9% and 1.8 times their own 31.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
—Michael PersonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%57 snaps
58Weston RichburgC · Every snap100%57 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillOT · Every snap100%57 snaps
85George KittleTE · Every snap100%57 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
17Emmanuel SandersWR · Full-time98%56 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time96%55 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Heavy rotation74%42 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational46%26 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational44%25 snaps
26Tevin ColemanRB · Situational18%10 snaps
88Garrett CelekTE · Situational11%6 snaps
30Jeff WilsonRB · Situational9%5 snaps
13Richie JamesWR · Situational4%2 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Dee FordDEChase McLaughlinKC.J. BeathardQBMatt BreidaRBJoe StaleyTLevine ToiloloTEDante PettisWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Tucker+25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 0:03 · Ravens · 3rd & 13 at SF 31 · gained nothing · +0.96 EP · +25.1% win probability
142 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 84 yards from the BAL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24+0.2233%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.0161%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.4240%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16+0.3638%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3245%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.5350%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1840%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
49ers6Ravens0
49ers7Ravens0
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Ravens 33
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the 49ers 31
49ers7Ravens6
49ers7Ravens7
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the 49ers 20
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the 49ers 45
2nd quarter44 plays
49ers7Ravens13
49ers7Ravens14
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the 49ers 1
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
49ers13Ravens14
49ers14Ravens14
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Ravens 40
49ers14Ravens17
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the 49ers 12
No good12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Ravens 33
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter33 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the 49ers 34
49ers17Ravens17
Field goal16 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Ravens 14
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 39
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 1 to the 49ers 7
4th quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 32
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the 49ers 40
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Ravens 35
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
49ers17Ravens20
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the 49ers 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -5.5
Closing total
45
49ers moneyline
+212
Ravens moneyline
-242
Ravens closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 37 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the east; 0.44 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
49ers 7 days · Ravens 6 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs John Harbaugh
3rd · 12:13
SF +10% win prob
(12:13) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left end to SF 20 for 14 yards (36-M.Harris). FUMBLES (36-M.Harris), RECOVERED by SF-36-M.Harris at SF 17. 36-M.Harris to SF 20 for 3 yards (79-R.Stanley).
3rd · 5:19BAL +10% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Sanders. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at BAL 29 - No Play.
