2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

TB -3 ✓U 46.5 ✓15 mph windBuccaneers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:46, TB +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 2:46TB — JAX JAX ball · 2nd & 10TB 76%

(2:46) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at JAX 16 for -9 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at JAX 14. 45-D.White for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 2:46TB +13% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at JAX 16 for -9 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at JAX 14. 45-D.White for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:40TB +13% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle intended for 12-D.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 26. 45-D.White to TB 31 for 5 yards (60-A.Cann; 27-L.Fournette).
Q1 · 7:54JAX +10% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep left to 12-D.Westbrook ran ob at TB 36 for 39 yards.
Q1 · 3:48JAX +7% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 19-B.Perriman. Tampa Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 19-B.Perriman pushed ob at JAX 40 for 13 yards (37-T.Herndon).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Jaguars
Offensive plays	66	64
Total yards	317 (edge)	244
Yards per play	4.8 (edge)	3.8
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.48
Success rate	39% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	59%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00 (edge)	-0.56
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.19
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.48.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	12	33	6:15	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 20	5	48	2:16	Interception
3	TB	TB 31	9	69	3:40	Touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 25	3	-11	0:10	Defensive touchdown
5	JAX	JAX 25	12	58	6:19	Fumble
6	TB	TB 17	8	63	3:22	Touchdown
7	JAX	JAX 25	5	-1	1:41	Punt
8	TB	TB 32	7	16	2:54	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 11	4	6	0:57	Punt
10	TB	TB 46	7	47	1:29	Turnover on downs
11	JAX	JAX 25	5	5	0:33	Punt
12	TB	TB 34	4	22	0:24	End of half
13	JAX	JAX 25	5	16	2:12	Punt
14	TB	TB 40	6	24	3:33	Fumble
15	JAX	JAX 39	7	36	3:29	Turnover on downs
16	TB	TB 25	10	44	5:41	Turnover on downs
17	JAX	JAX 46	5	56	1:28	Touchdown
18	TB	TB 25	5	-3	2:19	Punt
19	JAX	TB 37	13	31	5:12	Interception
20	TB	TB 3	4	0	1:21	Punt
21	JAX	JAX 30	4	5	1:28	Turnover on downs
22	TB	JAX 24	4	0	0:58	Turnover on downs
23	JAX	JAX 10	7	-5	0:43	Turnover on downs
24	TB	JAX 5	3	0	1:36	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 69 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3
Closing total: 46.5
TB moneyline: -155
JAX moneyline: +140

Buccaneers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 39 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: TB 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Doug Marrone

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.