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2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay28
BY 17final margin
JaguarsJacksonville11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 at Jacksonville Jaguars 11. Final.
Buccaneers -3 ✓U 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Jaguars 11 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 2:46, 2nd and 10, on N.Foles — 13.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:46 · 2nd and 10
N.Foles
Buccaneers
(2:46) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at JAX 16 for -9 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at JAX 14. 45-D.White for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.9 mph wind
Buccaneers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:46, Buccaneers +13.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.WestbrookJaguarsQ1 7:54(7:54) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep left to 12-D.Westbrook ran ob at TB 36 for 39 yards.
9.6pts
D.WhiteBuccaneersQ1 6:40(6:40) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle intended for 12-D.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 26. 45-D.White to TB 31 for 5 yards (60-A.Cann; 27-L.Fournette).
13.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 4 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.48 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.00 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.56 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Buccaneers176 of 189 plays carry both curves
(2:46) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at JAX 16 for -9 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at JAX 14. 45-D.White for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.5 for JaguarsExpected points −7.80 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 12 points higher than the market did.play 32
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:46TB +13% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at JAX 16 for -9 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at JAX 14. 45-D.White for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:40TB +13% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle intended for 12-D.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 26. 45-D.White to TB 31 for 5 yards (60-A.Cann; 27-L.Fournette).
1st · 7:54JAX +10% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep left to 12-D.Westbrook ran ob at TB 36 for 39 yards.
1st · 3:48JAX +7% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 19-B.Perriman. Tampa Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 19-B.Perriman pushed ob at JAX 40 for 13 yards (37-T.Herndon).
1st · 9:35TB +6% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 80-O.Howard to JAX 41 for -6 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue) [41-J.Allen]. Pass was batted by JAX 93 and subsequently caught by TB 80.
1st · 14:20JAX +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Barber's 15-yard rushing touchdown with 2:54 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:54P.Barber·15-yd TD run15-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
4th2:23M.Gay·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+328–11
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryJaguars
Buccaneers9–0Jaguars
317Total yards244
4.8Yards per play3.8
39%Success rate31%
44%Third-down rate29%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays4
18First downs13
4Sacks taken5
1Turnovers4
The read
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Buccaneers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.48Jaguars: −0.48 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Buccaneers: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.56Jaguars: −0.56 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Buccaneers: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.19Jaguars: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 64 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Jaguars 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 8 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 13.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +7.3 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Jaguars20.5%
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 39.2 points above their season mean of 27.4% and 1.8 times their own 21.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Ronnie HarrisonDBTae HayesDBDontavius RussellDTBrandon ThomasOGMyles JackOLBJoshua DobbsQBSeth DeValveTE
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Foles sacked−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:46) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at JAX 16 for -9 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at JAX 14. 45-D.White for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 2:46 · Jaguars · 2nd & 10 at JAX 25 · lost 11 · -7.80 EP · −15.9% win probability
174 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 83 yards from the TB 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.20
Success rate
32%
Yards
561
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3378%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1771%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR16-0.9194%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0920%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3467%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2820%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Jaguars 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Buccaneers 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Buccaneers6Jaguars0
Buccaneers7Jaguars0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Jaguars 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Buccaneers13Jaguars0
Touchdown3 plays
Buccaneers15Jaguars0
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Buccaneers 35
2nd quarter55 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 11
Buccaneers21Jaguars0
Buccaneers22Jaguars0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Jaguars 1
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers25Jaguars0
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Jaguars 7
Punt8 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Jaguars 44
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 26
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Jaguars 33
Buccaneers25Jaguars3
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Buccaneers 30
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Jaguars 37
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter57 plays
Buccaneers25Jaguars9
Buccaneers25Jaguars11
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 3
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 31
Intercepted14 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt6 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays
Buccaneers28Jaguars11
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 19
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Jaguars 23
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3
Closing total
46.5
Buccaneers moneyline
-155
Jaguars moneyline
+140
Buccaneers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 39 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; a real wind at 21 mph out of the south-west; 0.20 in of precipitation; mainly clear.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Doug Marrone
NoteWind at 20.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
(14:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans to TB 46 for 16 yards (21-A.Bouye).
2nd · 11:26TB +5% win prob(11:26) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at TB 18 for -7 yards (94-C.Nassib). FUMBLES (94-C.Nassib) [94-C.Nassib], RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at TB 17. 93-N.Suh to TB 17 for no gain (65-B.Linder).
4th · 6:16TB +4% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left intended for 12-D.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at TB -1. 26-S.Bunting to TB 3 for 4 yards (12-D.Westbrook).
Buccaneerscategory by categoryJaguars
Buccaneers6
Jaguars0
