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2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

29

Carolina Panthers

21

CAR -10.5 upsetO 38.5 ✓16 mph wind

Washington Commanders 29–21. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, CAR +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑WAS ↓
Q4 · 1:03WAS — CAR CAR ball · 1st & 10WAS 75%

(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to WAS 1 for 21 yards (53-J.Bostic; 20-L.Collins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:03CAR +14% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to WAS 1 for 21 yards (53-J.Bostic; 20-L.Collins).
  2. Q4 · 0:27WAS +13% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at WAS 26 for -23 yards (50-C.Odom). FUMBLES (50-C.Odom) [50-C.Odom], RECOVERED by WAS-54-N.Orchard at WAS 31. 54-N.Orchard to WAS 31 for no gain (72-T.Moton). PENALTY on WAS-23-Q.Dunbar, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.
  3. Q4 · 1:51WAS +13% win prob(Onside Kick formation) 5-M.Palardy kicks onside 13 yards from CAR 35 to CAR 48. RECOVERED by CAR-56-J.Carter.
  4. Q4 · 0:35WAS +11% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left tackle to WAS 3 for -1 yards (54-N.Orchard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersPanthers
Offensive plays6073
Total yards363 (edge)278
Yards per play6.0 (edge)3.8
Expected points added / play0.09 (edge)-0.10
Success rate45% (edge)40%
Dropback rate55%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.22-0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.46 (edge)-0.38
Third downs3/115/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps2020
Sacks taken5 (edge)7
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 2510604:21Touchdown
2WASWAS 255-112:12Punt
3CARCAR 457553:09Touchdown
4WASWAS 257682:09Turnover on downs
5CARCAR 119193:18Punt
6WASWAS 359413:35Turnover on downs
7CARCAR 30560:57Punt
8WASWAS 304-51:44Punt
9CARCAR 234-41:03Punt
10WAS50472:08Punt
11CARCAR 2220:48Interception
12WASCAR 1210:03Touchdown
13CARCAR 25752:47Punt
14WASWAS 208521:46Turnover on downs
15WASWAS 2512626:27Turnover on downs
16CARCAR 25510:56Punt
17WASWAS 35451:02Punt
18CARCAR 186263:13Punt
19WASWAS 17262:31Punt
20CARCAR 206133:00Punt
21WASWAS 335463:42Touchdown
22WASCAR 258151:39Punt
23WASWAS 456553:04Touchdown
24CARCAR 2514752:35Touchdown
25WASCAR 4810211:37Fumble
26WASWAS 16100:14End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CAR -10.5
Closing total
38.5
WAS moneyline
+391
CAR moneyline
-482

Panthers closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 50 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
64°F, wind 16 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
WAS 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Bill Callahan vs Ron Rivera

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.