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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington29
BY 8final margin
PanthersCarolina21
Washington Commanders 29 at Carolina Panthers 21. Final.
Panthers -10.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 13
Washington Commanders 29, Panthers 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:03, 1st and 10, on D.Moore — 14.1 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:03 · 1st and 10
D.Moore
Panthers
(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to WAS 1 for 21 yards (53-J.Bostic; 20-L.Collins).
O 38.5 ✓
18.5 mph wind
Panthers closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 29–21. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, Panthers +14.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
14.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ4 1:51(Onside Kick formation) 5-M.Palardy kicks onside 13 yards from CAR 35 to CAR 48. RECOVERED by CAR-56-J.Carter.
12.8pts
K.AllenCommandersQ4 0:27(:27) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at WAS 26 for -23 yards (50-C.Odom). FUMBLES (50-C.Odom) [50-C.Odom], RECOVERED by WAS-54-N.Orchard at WAS 31. 54-N.Orchard to WAS 31 for no gain (72-T.Moton). PENALTY on WAS-23-Q.Dunbar, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.
13.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.46 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Commanders174 of 184 plays carry both curves
(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to WAS 1 for 21 yards (53-J.Bostic; 20-L.Collins).
Swing +14.1 for PanthersExpected points +2.31 for PanthersThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:03CAR +14% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to WAS 1 for 21 yards (53-J.Bostic; 20-L.Collins).
4th · 0:27WAS +13% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at WAS 26 for -23 yards (50-C.Odom). FUMBLES (50-C.Odom) [50-C.Odom], RECOVERED by WAS-54-N.Orchard at WAS 31. 54-N.Orchard to WAS 31 for no gain (72-T.Moton). PENALTY on WAS-23-Q.Dunbar, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.
4th · 1:51WAS +13% win prob(Onside Kick formation) 5-M.Palardy kicks onside 13 yards from CAR 35 to CAR 48. RECOVERED by CAR-56-J.Carter.
4th · 0:35WAS +11% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left tackle to WAS 3 for -1 yards (54-N.Orchard).
4th · 15:00WAS +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 29 for -7 yards (54-N.Orchard).
2nd · 4:45WAS +9% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 31-F.Moreau at CAR 11. 31-F.Moreau to CAR 1 for 10 yards (7-K.Allen). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Hopkins's 36-yard field goal with 8:37 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Commanders ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Commanders: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.10Panthers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Commanders: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.46Commanders: +0.46 expected points added per play
−0.38Panthers: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 60 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Panthers’s 73 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Panthers 4.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's sack or hit rate, 27.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 12.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Panthers27.3%
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.3%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 17.8% and 1.5 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%64 snaps
72Donald PennT · Every snap100%64 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%64 snaps
7Dwayne HaskinsQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time86%55 snaps
13Kelvin HarmonWR · Full-time84%54 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Heavy rotation77%49 snaps
74Geron ChristianT · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Heavy rotation58%37 snaps
88Hale HentgesTE · Rotational47%30 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Rotational38%24 snaps
25Chris ThompsonRB · Rotational36%23 snaps
26Adrian PetersonRB · Rotational36%23 snaps
29Derrius GuiceRB · Rotational30%19 snaps
66Tony BergstromG · Situational23%15 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational11%7 snaps
18Trey QuinnWR · Situational11%7 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Ross PierschbacherCAaron ColvinCBJeremy ReavesDBRyan KerriganOLBColt McCoyQBWendell SmallwoodRBPaul RichardsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Allen pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:45) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 31-F.Moreau at CAR 11. 31-F.Moreau to CAR 1 for 10 yards (7-K.Allen). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 4:45 · Panthers · 2nd & 8 at CAR 4 · gained nothing · -5.64 EP · −13.0% win probability
172 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.1279%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1963%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1555%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.6175%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.660%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Commanders0Panthers6
Commanders0Panthers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Commanders 4
Punt5 plays
Commanders0Panthers13
Commanders0Panthers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Commanders 10
Commanders3Panthers14
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Panthers 7
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Panthers 37
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
Commanders6Panthers14
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Panthers 24
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 33
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Panthers 43
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Panthers 2 to the Panthers 4
Commanders12Panthers14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 35
No good13 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Panthers 13
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Commanders15Panthers14
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Panthers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 40
Drive ended4 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 34
Drive ended2 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Commanders 38
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 1 to the Commanders 22
The period ended3 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 23
4th quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays
Drive ended2 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 39
Drive ended3 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Panthers 46
Commanders21Panthers14
Commanders22Panthers14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 1
Punt5 plays
Commanders28Panthers14
Commanders29Panthers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Panthers 12
Commanders29Panthers20
Commanders29Panthers21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Commanders 17
Fumble lost14 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -10.5
Closing total
38.5
Commanders moneyline
+391
Panthers moneyline
-482
Panthers closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 50 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; windy at 19 mph out of the south-west; 0.02 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Bill Callahan vs Ron Rivera
NoteWind at 18.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 9:29CAR +9% win prob(9:29) 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 29-D.Guice left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 66-T.Bergstrom and 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 29-D.Guice left tackle to CAR 1 for 37 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 33-T.Boston).
3rd · 8:37CAR +8% win prob(8:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
