2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · New Era Field

Baltimore RavensWinner

Buffalo Bills

BAL -6.5 ✓U 44 ✓18 mph windRavens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Baltimore Ravens 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:05, BUF +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:05BAL — BUF BUF ball · 4th & 16BAL 94%

(2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Beasley [98-B.Williams]. BAL-53-J.Ward was injured during the play. Overthrown, receiver at BAL 18. J.Ward walks off. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphre

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:05BUF +14% win prob(2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Beasley [98-B.Williams]. BAL-53-J.Ward was injured during the play. Overthrown, receiver at BAL 18. J.Ward walks off. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at BAL 44 - No Play.
Q4 · 1:08BAL +8% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Brown (24-M.Peters). Receiver and coverage at BAL 1, crossing from right.
Q4 · 2:49BAL +8% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BAL 44 for -12 yards (58-L.Fort).
Q3 · 13:44BUF +8% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-H.Hurst for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Flag pattern, caught at BUF 41.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bills
Offensive plays	57	69
Total yards	260 (edge)	211
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	3.1
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.32
Success rate	39% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	46%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.44
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	3/11 (edge)	4/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 27	5	6	1:30	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 20	7	35	2:55	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 12	4	-2	1:19	Punt
4	BAL	BUF 45	8	27	4:20	Turnover on downs
5	BUF	BUF 17	6	10	1:00	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 33	4	-6	2:26	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 31	3	-5	0:34	Fumble
8	BAL	BUF 24	6	15	2:25	Touchdown
9	BUF	BUF 27	12	40	5:11	Turnover on downs
10	BAL	BAL 25	4	11	1:42	Interception
11	BUF	BAL 46	7	5	3:11	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 6	4	4	1:29	Punt
13	BUF	BAL 49	7	20	1:33	Turnover on downs
14	BAL	BAL 25	2	9	0:25	End of half
15	BAL	BAL 25	5	75	1:26	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 20	8	36	2:08	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	BAL 25	8	21	3:34	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 12	4	7	1:57	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 29	6	17	3:01	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 20	4	5	1:04	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 32	4	9	1:28	Punt
22	BUF	BUF 22	4	0	0:31	Punt
23	BAL	BAL 49	10	36	5:02	Touchdown
24	BUF	BUF 22	9	79	2:49	Touchdown
25	BAL	BAL 25	5	7	1:33	Punt
26	BUF	BUF 28	11	10	4:24	Turnover on downs
27	BAL	BAL 17	2	0	1:03	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 79 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -6.5
Closing total: 44
BAL moneyline: -264
BUF moneyline: +230

Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 44; the game landed 41 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 18 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: BAL 7 days · BUF 10 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Sean McDermott

Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.