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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 24, Bills 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:05, 4th and 16, on J.Allen — 14.0 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:05 · 4th and 16
J.Allen
Bills
(2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Beasley [98-B.Williams]. BAL-53-J.Ward was injured during the play. Overthrown, receiver at BAL 18. J.Ward walks off. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at BAL 44 - No Play.
Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Baltimore Ravens 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:05, Bills +14.0% win probability on one snap.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.AllenRavensQ4 2:49(2:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BAL 44 for -12 yards (58-L.Fort).
7.8pts
J.AllenRavensQ4 1:08(1:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Brown (24-M.Peters). Receiver and coverage at BAL 1, crossing from right.
8.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.44 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Ravens168 of 178 plays carry both curves
(2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Beasley [98-B.Williams]. BAL-53-J.Ward was injured during the play. Overthrown, receiver at BAL 18. J.Ward walks off. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphre
Swing +14.0 for BillsExpected points +4.53 for BillsThe model had Bills 4 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:05BUF +14% win prob(2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Beasley [98-B.Williams]. BAL-53-J.Ward was injured during the play. Overthrown, receiver at BAL 18. J.Ward walks off. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at BAL 44 - No Play.
4th · 1:08BAL +8% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Brown (24-M.Peters). Receiver and coverage at BAL 1, crossing from right.
4th · 2:49BAL +8% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BAL 44 for -12 yards (58-L.Fort).
3rd · 13:44BUF +8% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-H.Hurst for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Flag pattern, caught at BUF 41.
2nd · 6:43BAL +7% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 83-W.Snead IV INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds [90-S.Lawson] at BAL 46. 49-T.Edmunds to BAL 46 for no gain (83-W.Snead IV).
1st · 2:28BAL +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Tucker's 36-yard field goal with 5:00 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:00J.Tucker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+33–0
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Ravens: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.32Bills: −0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Ravens: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.44Bills: −0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Ravens: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.05Bills: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 57 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Bills’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Bills 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 7 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 14.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 13.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.6 points.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 13 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bills23.1%
leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 43.9 points below their season mean of 43.9% and 1.4 times their own 31.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dean MarloweDBVincent TaylorDTT.J. YeldonRBIke BoettgerTTy NsekheTTommy SweeneyTEDuke WilliamsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt BarkleyQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Beasley [98-B.Williams]. BAL-53-J.Ward was injured during the play. Overthrown, receiver at BAL 18. J.Ward walks off. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at BAL 44 - No Play.
Q4 2:05 · Bills · 4th & 16 at BAL 44 · gained nothing · +4.53 EP · +18.9% win probability
166 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 78 yards from the BUF 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
33%
Yards
468
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR68-0.3168%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.1948%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1457%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.1422%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0717%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 33
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Bills 45
Punt4 plays
Ravens3Bills0
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 12
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Bills 27
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Ravens 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 21
2nd quarter49 plays
Ravens9Bills0
Ravens10Bills0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 4 to the Bills 2
Ravens10Bills3
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Ravens 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bills 49
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Ravens 34
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 10
Ravens10Bills6
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Ravens 29
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Ravens16Bills6
Ravens17Bills6
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 39
Ravens17Bills9
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Ravens 29
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 21
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 49
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 25
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 41
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Ravens23Bills9
Ravens24Bills9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Bills 4
Ravens24Bills15
Ravens24Bills17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Ravens 1
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Ravens 16
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -6.5
Closing total
44
Ravens moneyline
-264
Bills moneyline
+230
Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 44; the game landed 41 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 42°F at kickoff; breezy at 15 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Bills 10 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Sean McDermott
(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 27 for -6 yards (55-J.Hughes).
2nd · 0:57BUF +5% win prob(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Beasley pushed ob at BAL 36 for 6 yards (24-M.Peters). BAL-36-C.Clark was injured during the play. Caught near sideline at BAL 37. Injury inside 2-minute warning; charged time out.
1st · 1:03BAL +5% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 26 for -7 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-53-J.Ward at BUF 26. 53-J.Ward to BUF 24 for 2 yards (67-Q.Spain).
Ravenscategory by categoryBills
Ravens3
Bills0
