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Carolina Panthers 20 at Atlanta Falcons 40. Final.
Falcons -3.5 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Atlanta Falcons 40, Panthers 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 13:50, 1st and 10, on K.Allen — 13.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:50 · 1st and 10
K.Allen
Falcons
(13:50) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 48 for -9 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley) [44-V.Beasley], RECOVERED by ATL-96-T.Davison at CAR 46. 96-T.Davison to CAR 46 for no gain (65-D.Daley).
Dome
Falcons closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Atlanta Falcons 40–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:50, Falcons +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.KazeeFalconsQ2 3:42(3:42) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (59-D.Campbell) at ATL 19. 27-D.Kazee to ATL 49 for 30 yards (22-C.McCaffrey). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (59-D.Campbell) at ATL 19. 27-D.Kazee to ATL 41 for 22 yards (10-C.Samuel).
11.9pts
O.ZaccheausFalconsQ3 6:45(6:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN [33-T.Boston].
10.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 4 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Panthers179 of 187 plays carry both curves
(13:50) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 48 for -9 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley) [44-V.Beasley], RECOVERED by ATL-96-T.Davison at CAR 46. 96-T.Davison to CAR 46 for no gain (65-D.Daley).
Swing +13.0 for FalconsExpected points +6.27 for FalconsThe model had Panthers 7 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:50CAR +13% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 48 for -9 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley) [44-V.Beasley], RECOVERED by ATL-96-T.Davison at CAR 46. 96-T.Davison to CAR 46 for no gain (65-D.Daley).
2nd · 3:42CAR +12% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (59-D.Campbell) at ATL 19. 27-D.Kazee to ATL 49 for 30 yards (22-C.McCaffrey). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (59-D.Campbell) at ATL 19. 27-D.Kazee to ATL 41 for 22 yards (10-C.Samuel).
3rd · 6:45ATL +10% win prob(6:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN [33-T.Boston].
1st · 4:55ATL +9% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman to CAR 24 for 11 yards (26-D.Jackson).
2nd · 2:08ATL +7% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to ATL 38 for 39 yards (26-I.Oliver).
2nd · 11:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Y.Koo's 35-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:51Y.Koo·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Harris+30–3
2nd14:56J.Slye·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+33–3
Falcons ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Panthers: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.16Falcons: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Panthers: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.21Falcons: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Panthers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.10Falcons: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 68 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Falcons’s 66 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Falcons 7.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 11 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.6 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
CAR's pass rate over expected, +6.0 pts, is past their previous high of +5.0 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.2% in week 13 against 46.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Falcons14.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 46.3%, 18.3 points below their season mean of 64.6% and 1.9 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
John CominskyDEJamon BrownGJames CarpenterGDeadrin SenatNTSharrod NeasmanSSTy SambrailoTBrandon PowellWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Allen sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:50) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 48 for -9 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley) [44-V.Beasley], RECOVERED by ATL-96-T.Davison at CAR 46. 96-T.Davison to CAR 46 for no gain (65-D.Daley).
Q3 13:50 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at ATL 43 · lost 11 · -6.27 EP · −19.2% win probability
177 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 95 yards from the ATL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
48%
Yards
806
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.1171%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.3268%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0336%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0350%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.6517%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0967%
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 25
Panthers0Falcons3
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Panthers 19
The period ended9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 32
2nd quarter57 plays
Panthers3Falcons3
Field goal2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 43
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 35
Panthers3Falcons9
Panthers3Falcons10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Panthers 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 47
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 48
Panthers9Falcons10
Panthers10Falcons10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Falcons 1
Panthers10Falcons13
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 17
3rd quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 43
Panthers10Falcons19
Panthers10Falcons20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Panthers 13
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Falcons 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Panthers10Falcons26
Panthers10Falcons27
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 5 to the Falcons 7
Fumble lost1 play
Panthers10Falcons30
Field goal4 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 10
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 32
Punt4 plays
Intercepted3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Panthers10Falcons33
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 32
Panthers13Falcons33
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 10
Panthers13Falcons39
Panthers13Falcons40
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 3
Panthers19Falcons40
Panthers20Falcons40
Touchdown16 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Pantherscategory by categoryFalcons
Panthers0
Falcons3
