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2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Carolina Panthers

20

Atlanta FalconsWinner

40

ATL -3.5 ✓O 48 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 40–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:50, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑CAR ↓
Q3 · 13:50CAR — ATL CAR ball · 1st & 10ATL 61%

(13:50) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 48 for -9 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley) [44-V.Beasley], RECOVERED by ATL-96-T.Davison at CAR 46. 96-T.Davison to CAR 46 for no gain (65-D.Daley).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 13:50CAR +13% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 48 for -9 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley) [44-V.Beasley], RECOVERED by ATL-96-T.Davison at CAR 46. 96-T.Davison to CAR 46 for no gain (65-D.Daley).
  2. Q2 · 3:42CAR +12% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (59-D.Campbell) at ATL 19. 27-D.Kazee to ATL 49 for 30 yards (22-C.McCaffrey). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (59-D.Campbell) at ATL 19. 27-D.Kazee to ATL 41 for 22 yards (10-C.Samuel).
  3. Q3 · 6:45ATL +10% win prob(6:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN [33-T.Boston].
  4. Q1 · 4:55ATL +9% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman to CAR 24 for 11 yards (26-D.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersFalcons
Offensive plays6866
Total yards345462 (edge)
Yards per play5.17.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.050.16 (edge)
Success rate57% (edge)41%
Dropback rate74%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.130.21 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)0.10
Third downs3/105/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)23
Sacks taken51 (edge)
Turnovers40 (edge)

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 259363:37Punt
2CARCAR 20442:12Punt
3ATLATL 2613656:24Turnover on downs
4CARCAR 2510472:56Turnover on downs
5ATLATL 258283:56Punt
6CARCAR 108163:37Punt
7ATLATL 267742:03Touchdown
8CARCAR 255221:43Interception
9ATLATL 41420:58Punt
10CARCAR 1310871:29Touchdown
11ATLATL 257541:05Turnover on downs
12CARCAR 254211:17Fumble
13ATLCAR 466412:35Touchdown
14CARCAR 219353:35Punt
15ATLATL 54951:03Touchdown
16CAR—100:08Fumble
17ATLCAR 16451:27Turnover on downs
18CARCAR 207112:08Punt
19ATLATL 30401:04Punt
20CARCAR 303-101:43Interception
21ATLCAR 497173:20Turnover on downs
22CARCAR 258273:46Turnover on downs
23ATLCAR 428422:46Touchdown
24CARCAR 2515853:42Touchdown
25ATLCAR 32331:26End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 95 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Closing total
48
CAR moneyline
+161
ATL moneyline
-180

Falcons closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 48; the game landed 60 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
CAR 7 days · ATL 10 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.