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Cincinnati Bengals 19 at Cleveland Browns 27. Final.
Browns -6.5 ✓O 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Cleveland Browns 27, Bengals 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:31, 1st and 10, on N.Vigil — 17.1 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:31 · 1st and 10
N.Vigil
Bengals
(7:31) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 59-N.Vigil at CIN 15. 59-N.Vigil to CIN 49 for 34 yards (70-K.Lamm). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
16.7 mph wind
Browns closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Cleveland Browns 27–19. Biggest swing: Q1 7:31, Bengals +17.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.WardBrownsQ1 5:46(5:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 19-A.Tate INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 39. 21-D.Ward for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.8pts
J.LandryBrownsQ2 10:38(10:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry to CLE 36 for 20 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
9.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Browns won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Bengals at 3 of 12 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bengals159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(7:31) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 59-N.Vigil at CIN 15. 59-N.Vigil to CIN 49 for 34 yards (70-K.Lamm). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Uph
Swing −17.1 for BrownsExpected points −6.81 for BrownsThe model had Bengals 14 points higher than the market did.play 17
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:31CIN +17% win prob(7:31) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 59-N.Vigil at CIN 15. 59-N.Vigil to CIN 49 for 34 yards (70-K.Lamm). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 5:46CIN +15% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 19-A.Tate INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 39. 21-D.Ward for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:38CLE +9% win prob(10:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry to CLE 36 for 20 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
3rd · 12:55CLE +8% win prob(12:55) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CIN 3 for 57 yards (22-W.Jackson III). Penalty on CIN-93-A.Brown, Defensive Offside, declined.
1st · 4:06CLE +8% win prob(4:06) 12-A.Erickson pass deep right to 25-G.Bernard pushed ob at CLE 21 for 26 yards (29-S.Redwine). 14 Dalton handed to 83 Boyd who pitched to 12 Erickson
1st · 11:05CIN +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
B.Mayfield's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 6:44 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:00R.Bullock·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–0
3rd4:43R.Bullock·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+316–21
3rd0:20A.Seibert·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+316–24
4th1:09A.Seibert·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+316–27
4th0:16R.Bullock·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+319–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBrowns
Bengals5–4Browns
451Total yards334
6.4Yards per play6.5
50%Success rate39%
25%Third-down rate58%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays8
26First downs16
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Bengals ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Bengals: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.05Browns: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Bengals: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.07Browns: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Bengals: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 70 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Browns’s 51 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Browns 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 8 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 14.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 13.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Browns12.5%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 43.6%, 11.4 points below their season mean of 55.0% and 1.4 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 19-A.Tate INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 39. 21-D.Ward for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:46 · Bengals · 3rd & 23 at CIN 48 · gained nothing · -7.57 EP · −23.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 85 yards from the CLE 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
784
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0261%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.5756%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3145%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.5940%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-1.1922%
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8+0.0575%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.4760%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Bengals3Browns0
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Bengals 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Bengals3Browns6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Browns 39
Bengals3Browns7
Bengals6Browns7
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Browns 18
Intercepted4 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Bengals12Browns7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Browns 1
Bengals13Browns7
Drive ended3 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Bengals13Browns13
Bengals13Browns14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Bengals 7
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 20
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Browns 49
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 15
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 34
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bengals13Browns20
Bengals13Browns21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 3
Bengals16Browns21
Field goal18 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Browns 2
Bengals16Browns24
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 35
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Browns 4
Bengals16Browns27
Field goal17 plays, from the Browns 2 to the Bengals 13
Bengals19Browns27
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Browns 28
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bengalscategory by categoryBrowns
Bengals3
Browns0
