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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 31, Cowboys 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:05, 4th and 4, on B.Maher — 14.6 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:05 · 4th and 4
B.Maher
Bears
(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 5:05, Bears +14.6% win probability on one snap.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.RobinsonBearsQ2 12:17(12:17) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.3pts
A.RobinsonBearsQ2 0:14(:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bears won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Cowboys at 6 of 15 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Cowboys178 of 192 plays carry both curves
(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Swing +14.6 for BearsExpected points +3.32 for BearsThe model had Bears 17 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:05DAL +15% win prob(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
2nd · 12:17CHI +10% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:14CHI +9% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:24CHI +8% win prob(7:24) (No Huddle) 21-E.Elliott right guard to CHI 30 for 31 yards (52-K.Mack).
1st · 9:16CHI +8% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Jarwin to CHI 14 for 12 yards (23-K.Fuller; 58-R.Smith).
3rd · 11:41CHI +7% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 84-C.Patterson to DAL 33 for 33 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
4th · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
E.Pineiro's 36-yard field goal with 8:10 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th0:12B.Maher·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+324–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryBears
Cowboys3–4Bears
409Total yards383
5.7Yards per play5.8
43%Success rate50%
40%Third-down rate54%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
23First downs21
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Bears ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Cowboys: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.05Bears: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Cowboys: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.27Bears: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Cowboys: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.24Bears: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 72 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bears’s 66 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Bears 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 60.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 10 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 14.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bears15.7%
inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 60.0%, 35.7 points above their season mean of 24.3% and 1.7 times their own 20.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%73 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%73 snaps
72Travis FrederickC · Every snap100%73 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Every snap100%73 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Every snap99%72 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Heavy rotation79%58 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Heavy rotation79%58 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation78%57 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Heavy rotation77%56 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational30%22 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Rotational29%21 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational15%11 snaps
11Ced WilsonWR · Situational7%5 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational4%3 snaps
83Ventell BryantWR · Situational1%1 snap
75Cameron FlemingT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Joe JacksonDEAntwaun WoodsDTLeighton Vander EschLBTony PollardRBJeff HeathSSCaleb BenenochTDevin SmithWR
Prince AmukamaraCBCorey LevinGDanny TrevathanILBBobby MassieTBen BrauneckerTEEric SaubertTETaylor GabrielWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chase DanielQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Maher−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q2 5:05 · Cowboys · 4th & 4 at CHI 24 · gained nothing · -3.32 EP · −13.5% win probability
176 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 85 yards from the DAL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
790
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.1079%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0049%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.0918%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0843%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4440%
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Cowboys6Bears0
Cowboys7Bears0
Touchdown20 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bears 2
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Cowboys 16
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 1 to the Cowboys 6
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Cowboys7Bears6
Cowboys7Bears7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 5
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 26
Cowboys7Bears10
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Cowboys 18
No good8 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Bears 24
Cowboys7Bears16
Cowboys7Bears17
Touchdown20 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Cowboys 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Cowboys7Bears23
Cowboys7Bears24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Cowboys 14
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Bears 35
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 23
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Cowboys 44
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Bears 3
4th quarter67 plays
Cowboys13Bears24
Cowboys14Bears24
Touchdown2 plays
Cowboys14Bears30
Cowboys14Bears31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Cowboys 23
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 47 to midfield
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Bears 48
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Cowboys 49
Cowboys20Bears31
Cowboys21Bears31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Bears 19
Punt12 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Cowboys 45
Cowboys24Bears31
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Bears 13
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3
Closing total
43
Cowboys moneyline
-167
Bears moneyline
+150
Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 55 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Bradley Rogers
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Jason Garrett vs Matt Nagy
CHI +7% win prob
(15:00) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:07DAL +6% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to DAL 39 for 5 yards (48-J.Thomas; 79-M.Bennett). FUMBLES (48-J.Thomas), RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at DAL 40. 54-J.Smith to DAL 46 for 6 yards (10-M.Trubisky).
