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Denver Broncos 38, Texans 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:52, 1st and 10, on K.Coutee — 25.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:52 · 1st and 10
K.Coutee
Broncos
(3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to DEN 29 for 8 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-97-J.Attaochu at DEN 29. 97-J.Attaochu to DEN 30 for 1 yard. Handoff to 22-K.Jackson for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 38–24. Biggest swing: Q1 3:52, Broncos +25.6% win probability on one snap.
25.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.BeckBroncosQ1 9:08(9:08) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 83-A.Beck pushed ob at HOU 12 for 29 yards (20-J.Reid) [39-T.Gipson].
8.4pts
N.FantBroncosQ1 7:31(7:31) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.69 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Broncos168 of 177 plays carry both curves
(3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to DEN 29 for 8 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-97-J.Attaochu at DEN 29. 97-J.Attaochu to DEN 30 for 1 yard. Handoff to 22-K.Jac
Swing −25.6 for TexansExpected points −10.82 for TexansThe model had Broncos 23 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:52DEN +26% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to DEN 29 for 8 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-97-J.Attaochu at DEN 29. 97-J.Attaochu to DEN 30 for 1 yard. Handoff to 22-K.Jackson for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:31HOU +9% win prob(7:31) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:08HOU +8% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 83-A.Beck pushed ob at HOU 12 for 29 yards (20-J.Reid) [39-T.Gipson].
2nd · 2:00DEN +8% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 16-K.Coutee (96-S.Harris).
2nd · 15:00HOU +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 81-T.Patrick to HOU 42 for 37 yards (20-J.Reid; 28-V.Hargreaves) [94-C.Omenihu].
1st · 10:26HOU +5% win prob(10:26) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 87-N.Fant pushed ob at HOU 44 for 48 yards (39-T.Gipson) [98-D.Reader].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
N.Fant's 14-yard touchdown catch with 7:31 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:31N.Fant·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Lockfrom D.LockLead never changed again+77–0
Broncos ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Broncos: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.06Texans: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.69Broncos: +0.69 expected points added per play
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Broncos: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.22Texans: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 54 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Texans’s 74 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Texans 3.
NoteTexans outgained Broncos 414-392 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's early-down pass rate, 75.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 68.2% in week 3.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 13.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 26.7%, is past their previous high of 21.2% in week 13 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Texans26.7%
off script — got home · +13.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.01× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.4%, 19.0 points above their season mean of 56.4% and 2.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%59 snaps
71Austin SchlottmannG · Every snap100%59 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%59 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%59 snaps
3Drew LockQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time97%57 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Heavy rotation75%44 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Heavy rotation63%37 snaps
70Ja'Wuan JamesOT · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
82Jeff HeuermanTE · Heavy rotation51%30 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Rotational49%29 snaps
68Elijah WilkinsonT · Rotational47%28 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Rotational46%27 snaps
83Andrew BeckTE · Rotational34%20 snaps
84Troy FumagalliTE · Rotational27%16 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Situational3%2 snaps
11Diontae SpencerWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Patrick MorrisCShakial TaylorDBJonathan HarrisDERonald LearyGMalik ReedOLBCalvin AndersonTJuwann WinfreeWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass−20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to DEN 29 for 8 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-97-J.Attaochu at DEN 29. 97-J.Attaochu to DEN 30 for 1 yard. Handoff to 22-K.Jackson for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:52 · Texans · 1st & 10 at DEN 37 · gained 8 · -10.82 EP · −20.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 92 yards from the DEN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
805
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0368%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.0050%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.2476%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.4752%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Broncos 36
Broncos6Texans0
Broncos7Texans0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Texans 12
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Broncos13Texans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Broncos 37
Broncos14Texans0
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to midfield
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Broncos20Texans0
Broncos21Texans0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Texans 8
Broncos21Texans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Broncos 31
Broncos24Texans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Texans 17
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Broncos30Texans3
Broncos31Texans3
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 36
3rd quarter35 plays
Broncos37Texans3
Broncos38Texans3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Texans 1
Broncos38Texans9
Broncos38Texans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Broncos 43
Intercepted9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Texans 25
The period ended9 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Broncos 23
4th quarter48 plays
Broncos38Texans16
Broncos38Texans17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 6
Punt7 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from midfield to the Broncos 32
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 45
Broncos38Texans23
Broncos38Texans24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Broncos 3
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Broncoscategory by categoryTexans
Broncos6
Texans0
