2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · NRG Stadium
Denver BroncosWinner
38
Houston Texans
24
Denver Broncos 38–24. Biggest swing: Q1 3:52, DEN +26% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to DEN 29 for 8 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-97-J.Attaochu at DEN 29. 97-J.Attaochu to DEN 30 for 1 yard. Handoff to 22-K.Jac
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 3:52DEN +26% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to DEN 29 for 8 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-97-J.Attaochu at DEN 29. 97-J.Attaochu to DEN 30 for 1 yard. Handoff to 22-K.Jackson for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 7:31HOU +9% win prob(7:31) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 9:08HOU +8% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 83-A.Beck pushed ob at HOU 12 for 29 yards (20-J.Reid) [39-T.Gipson].
- Q2 · 2:00DEN +8% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 16-K.Coutee (96-S.Harris).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 54 | 74 |
| Total yards | 392 | 414 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 7.3 (edge) | 5.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.25 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 41% | 42% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 56% | 78% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.69 (edge) | -0.14 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.28 | 0.22 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/8 (edge) | 6/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 | 25 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 3 |
Texans outgained Broncos 414–392 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 25 | 11 | 39 | 4:34 | Punt | |
| 2 | DEN | DEN 8 | 8 | 102 | 2:59 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 25 | 8 | 46 | 3:54 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 25 | 8 | 16 | 3:05 | Punt | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 20 | 9 | 80 | 4:04 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 25 | 9 | 44 | 2:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 25 | 10 | 57 | 5:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:08 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | DEN | HOU 34 | 7 | 25 | 1:19 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 25 | 4 | 22 | 0:37 | End of half | |
| 11 | DEN | DEN 43 | 10 | 52 | 5:45 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 30 | 6 | 70 | 1:39 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 25 | 9 | 50 | 4:59 | Interception | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 29 | 13 | 66 | 4:03 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 25 | 6 | 6 | 3:09 | Punt | |
| 16 | HOU | 50 | 8 | 23 | 3:20 | Interception | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 25 | 6 | 20 | 3:13 | Punt | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 21 | 15 | 79 | 3:27 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | HOU | HOU 38 | 2 | 0 | 0:13 | Interception | |
| 20 | DEN | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | End of game |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 102 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- HOU -8
- Closing total
- 42.5
- DEN moneyline
- +325
- HOU moneyline
- -389
Texans closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 62 — over by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- NRG Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Adrian Hill
- Rest
- DEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
- Coaches
- Vic Fangio vs Bill O'Brien