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2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit7
BY 13final margin
VikingsMinnesota20
Detroit Lions 7 at Minnesota Vikings 20. Final.
Vikings -12 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Minnesota Vikings 20, Lions 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:02, 4th and 8 — 4.2 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:02 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Lions
(12:02) 2-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to DET 13, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Dome
Vikings closed -12 and covered, winning by 13.
Minnesota Vikings 20–7. Biggest swing: Q2 12:02, Lions +4.2% win probability on one snap.
4.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetLionsQ1 12:01(12:01) 2-B.Colquitt punts 30 yards to DET 15, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on MIN-91-S.Weatherly, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 15.
3.8pts
D.CookVikingsQ1 10:02(10:02) (No Huddle) 33-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 38 for 9 yards (21-T.Walker).
3.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Lions173 of 182 plays carry both curves
(12:02) 2-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to DET 13, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Swing −4.2 for VikingsExpected points −0.55 for VikingsThe model had Lions 15 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:02DET +4% win prob(12:02) 2-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to DET 13, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
1st · 12:01DET +4% win prob(12:01) 2-B.Colquitt punts 30 yards to DET 15, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on MIN-91-S.Weatherly, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 15.
1st · 10:02MIN +3% win prob(10:02) (No Huddle) 33-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 38 for 9 yards (21-T.Walker).
1st · 5:52MIN +3% win prob(5:52) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 81-O.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:16DET +2% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough sacked at MIN 27 for -12 yards (99-D.Hunter).
1st · 14:53DET +2% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough sacked at DET 19 for -6 yards (99-D.Hunter).
1st · 13:09
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
O.Johnson's 9-yard touchdown catch with 5:52 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:52O.Johnson·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom K.Cousinsfrom K.CousinsLead never changed again+70–7
2nd4:45D.Bailey·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+30–10
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Lions: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.05Vikings: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Lions: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.18Vikings: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Lions: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.24Vikings: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 67 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Vikings’s 69 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Lions 2, Vikings 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.7% in week 13 against 37.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Vikings17.8%
inside their normal wobble · +2.6 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DET's early-down pass rate, 62.0% against a season mean of 55.3% — and DET swings 8.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Blough sacked−7% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough sacked at MIN 27 for -12 yards (99-D.Hunter).
Q2 1:16 · Lions · 3rd & 2 at MIN 15 · lost 12 · -2.25 EP · −7.3% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 82 yards from the MIN 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
37%
Yards
585
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2475%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.0675%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.1320%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14-0.0929%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0542%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.4125%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 42 to the Lions 45
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 33
Lions0Vikings6
Lions0Vikings7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Lions 9
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 37
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Lions 39
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 22
Lions0Vikings10
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Lions 4
No good17 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 15
Lions0Vikings16
Lions0Vikings17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Lions 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Lions 39
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 35
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 26
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 35
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 27
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 49
Intercepted2 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Lions 43
The period ended9 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Lions 34
4th quarter48 plays
Lions0Vikings20
Field goal1 play
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 44
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Lions 42
Lions6Vikings20
Lions7Vikings20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 10
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Lions 44
Intercepted7 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Vikings 21
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
