2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -3 pushO 46.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:47, IND +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:47IND — TB TB ball · 3rd & 10TB 51%

(2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [37-K.Willis] at IND 20. 53-D.Leonard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:47IND +27% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [37-K.Willis] at IND 20. 53-D.Leonard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:56TB +16% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 19-B.Perriman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:26IND +15% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard at TB 46. 53-D.Leonard pushed ob at TB 35 for 11 yards (27-R.Jones). PENALTY on IND-99-J.Houston, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at TB 35.
Q4 · 1:56IND +15% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 7-J.Brissett. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left. Penalty on IND-7-J.Brissett, Illegal Forward Pass, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	60	75
Total yards	311	546 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	32%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	6/16	8/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	3	10	0:42	Interception
2	IND	50	4	50	1:33	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 30	7	18	3:11	Fumble
4	IND	TB 48	7	11	2:41	Turnover on downs
5	TB	TB 25	12	75	5:12	Touchdown
6	IND	IND 25	5	0	0:26	Punt
7	TB	TB 39	2	61	0:09	Touchdown
8	IND	IND 25	5	-1	1:24	Punt
9	TB	TB 21	5	10	2:08	Punt
10	IND	TB 47	11	47	4:52	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	10	68	5:10	Defensive touchdown
12	TB	TB 25	13	75	1:54	Touchdown
13	IND	IND 25	7	61	0:38	Turnover on downs
14	IND	IND 25	8	26	2:58	Punt
15	TB	TB 23	7	22	2:29	Punt
16	IND	IND 24	8	73	3:34	Touchdown
17	TB	TB 25	7	75	2:41	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 25	5	9	1:35	Punt
19	TB	TB 19	10	55	3:43	Turnover on downs
20	IND	IND 25	5	14	2:27	Fumble
21	TB	TB 13	2	1	0:49	Interception
22	IND	TB 25	4	-4	1:31	Turnover on downs
23	TB	TB 37	9	63	4:22	Touchdown
24	IND	IND 25	7	25	2:06	Turnover on downs
25	TB	50	5	13	1:45	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3
Closing total: 46.5
IND moneyline: +149
TB moneyline: -166

Buccaneers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 73 — over by 26.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: IND 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Bruce Arians