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2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis35
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay38
Indianapolis Colts 35 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38. Final.
Buccaneers -3 push
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Colts 35 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 2:47, 3rd and 10, on Shaquille Leonard — 27.4 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
O 46.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:47, Colts +27.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:47 · 3rd and 10
Shaquille Leonard
Colts
(2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [37-K.Willis] at IND 20. 53-D.Leonard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
27.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Shaquille LeonardColtsQ1 14:26(14:26) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard at TB 46. 53-D.Leonard pushed ob at TB 35 for 11 yards (27-R.Jones). PENALTY on IND-99-J.Houston, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at TB 35.
15.4pts
Breshad PerrimanBuccaneersQ4 3:56(3:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 19-B.Perriman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Colts at 6 of 16 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Colts174 of 185 plays carry both curves
(2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [37-K.Willis] at IND 20. 53-D.Leonard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −27.4 for BuccaneersExpected points −10.14 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 74
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:47IND +27% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [37-K.Willis] at IND 20. 53-D.Leonard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:56TB +16% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 19-B.Perriman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:26IND +15% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard at TB 46. 53-D.Leonard pushed ob at TB 35 for 11 yards (27-R.Jones). PENALTY on IND-99-J.Houston, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at TB 35.
4th · 1:56IND +15% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 7-J.Brissett. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left. Penalty on IND-7-J.Brissett, Illegal Forward Pass, declined.
1st · 1:15TB +15% win prob(1:15) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-13-M.Evans was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
1st · 12:54TB +14% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Breshad Perriman's 12-yard touchdown catch with 3:56 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Buccaneers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Colts: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.03Buccaneers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Colts: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.14Buccaneers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Colts: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.22Buccaneers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 75 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Buccaneers 5.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 11 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 14.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.7% in week 13 against 11.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.1%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 34.7 points above their season mean of 40.3% and 1.0 times their own 33.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass−29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [37-K.Willis] at IND 20. 53-D.Leonard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:47 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 10 at IND 23 · gained nothing · -10.14 EP · −29.3% win probability
172 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 76 yards from the IND 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
853
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.1181%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1168%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1740%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.2325%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.6620%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4780%
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.1260%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Colts6Buccaneers0
Colts7Buccaneers0
Touchdown4 plays, from midfield to the Buccaneers 46
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 41
Colts10Buccaneers0
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Buccaneers 32
Colts10Buccaneers6
Colts10Buccaneers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Colts 1
Punt5 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Colts10Buccaneers13
Colts10Buccaneers14
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 26
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays
Colts16Buccaneers14
Colts17Buccaneers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Buccaneers 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Colts23Buccaneers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Colts 23
Colts24Buccaneers14
Colts24Buccaneers20
Colts24Buccaneers21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Colts 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Colts27Buccaneers21
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Buccaneers 1
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Colts33Buccaneers21
Colts35Buccaneers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Buccaneers 12
Colts35Buccaneers27
Colts35Buccaneers28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Colts 17
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 23
4th quarter45 plays
Colts35Buccaneers31
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Colts 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Buccaneers 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 14
No good5 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends, one receiver and one linemanDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Colts35Buccaneers37
Colts35Buccaneers38
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Colts 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 25 to midfield
The period ended8 plays, from midfield to the Colts 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3
Closing total
46.5
Colts moneyline
+149
Buccaneers moneyline
-166
Buccaneers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 73 — over by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the east; partly cloudy.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Colts 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Bruce Arians
(12:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 83-M.Johnson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-26-S.Bunting, Illegal Contact, declined.
2nd · 4:28TB +14% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 12-C.Godwin to IND 23 for 28 yards (37-K.Willis).
4th · 10:45IND +13% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 21-N.Hines to TB 16 for 5 yards (45-D.White). FUMBLES (45-D.White), RECOVERED by TB-34-M.Edwards at TB 14. 34-M.Edwards to TB 13 for -1 yards (21-N.Hines). TB-33-C.Davis was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Coltscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Colts6
Buccaneers0
