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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Kansas City Chiefs 23 at New England Patriots 16. Final.
Patriots -3 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Patriots 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:14, 2nd and 25, on M.Hardman — 19.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:14 · 2nd and 25
M.Hardman
Chiefs
(13:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.8
U 49.5 ✓
Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Kansas City Chiefs 23–16. Biggest swing: Q2 13:14, Chiefs +19.8% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.BradyPatriotsQ4 3:26(3:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles left tackle to KC 12 for 17 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
17.9pts
T.BradyChiefsQ4 1:11(1:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Edelman (21-B.Breeland).
17.5pts
What separated them
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 5 of 15 on third down, against Patriots at 2 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Chiefs173 of 182 plays carry both curves
(13:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.8 for PatriotsExpected points −5.64 for PatriotsThe model had Chiefs 5 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:14NE +20% win prob(13:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:26NE +18% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles left tackle to KC 12 for 17 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
4th · 1:11KC +17% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Edelman (21-B.Breeland).
3rd · 0:15KC +12% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to NE 36 for 1 yard (32-D.McCourty, 24-S.Gilmore). New England challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to NE 36 for 1 yard (32-D.McCourty). FUMBLES (32-D.McCourty), RECOVERED by NE-24-S.Gilmore at NE 43.
1st · 2:06KC +11% win prob(2:06) 2-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-T.Kpassagnon), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey, RECOVERED by KC-35-C.Ward at KC 35. 35-C.Ward to KC 42 for 7 yards (58-J.Collins).
4th · 12:26KC +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Hardman's 48-yard touchdown catch with 13:14 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
2nd1:02H.Butker·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+320–7
3rd8:50H.Butker·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+323–7
3rd4:30B.Bolden·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+623–13
4th11:45N.Folk·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+323–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryPatriots
Chiefs6–1Patriots
349Total yards278
5.2Yards per play4.4
37%Success rate35%
33%Third-down rate17%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
16First downs15
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Chiefs: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.27Patriots: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Chiefs: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.36Patriots: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Chiefs: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.12Patriots: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 67 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Patriots’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Patriots 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Patriots13.6%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was KC's pass rate over expected, 3.5 pts against a season mean of 7.8 pts — and KC swings 4.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%77 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady scrambles+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles left tackle to KC 12 for 17 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q4 3:26 · Patriots · 4th & 6 at KC 29 · gained 17 · +2.97 EP · +17.2% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 83 yards from the NE 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
37%
Yards
624
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0169%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2676%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26-0.2250%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2010%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Chiefs0Patriots6
Chiefs0Patriots7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Chiefs 37
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 31
Punt4 plays
Chiefs3Patriots7
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Patriots 30
No good14 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Chiefs 23
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Patriots 45
2nd quarter55 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Chiefs9Patriots7
Chiefs10Patriots7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Patriots 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Chiefs16Patriots7
Chiefs17Patriots7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 4
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Chiefs 27
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Patriots 48
Punt4 plays
Chiefs20Patriots7
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Patriots 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Patriots 46
3rd quarter37 plays
Chiefs23Patriots7
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Patriots 23
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 29
Punt5 plays
Chiefs23Patriots13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Chiefs 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Patriots 37
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Chiefs23Patriots16
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Chiefs 3
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 23
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Chiefs 48
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Chiefs 5
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -3
Closing total
49.5
Chiefs moneyline
+135
Patriots moneyline
-150
Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 39 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Bill Belichick
(12:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at KC 11 for -6 yards (97-A.Okafor).
2nd · 13:04KC +10% win prob(13:04) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 83-M.LaCosse INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Breeland at NE 39. 21-B.Breeland to NE 35 for 4 yards (28-J.White).
4th · 13:28NE +10% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 16-J.Meyers (29-K.Fuller). Penalty on KC-29-K.Fuller, Defensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on KC-29-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at KC 39 - No Play.
