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2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles45
BY 35final margin
JaguarsJacksonville10
Los Angeles Chargers 45 at Jacksonville Jaguars 10. Final.
Chargers -3.5 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers 45, Jaguars 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:39, 1st and 10, on K.Allen — 11.6 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:39 · 1st and 10
K.Allen
Chargers
(6:39) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to JAX 7 for 45 yards (26-J.Wilson).
11.6
Chargers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Los Angeles Chargers 45–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:39, Chargers +11.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CharkJaguarsQ1 9:15(9:15) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 17-D.Chark Jr. to LAC 12 for 22 yards (20-D.King).
7.6pts
A.EkelerChargersQ1 7:15(7:15) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to LAC 48 for 27 yards (26-J.Wilson).
5.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.99 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.65 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers won this one — 6 of 8 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 15 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Chargers159 of 165 plays carry both curves
(6:39) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to JAX 7 for 45 yards (26-J.Wilson).
Swing −11.6 for JaguarsExpected points −2.99 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 15 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:39JAX +12% win prob(6:39) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to JAX 7 for 45 yards (26-J.Wilson).
1st · 9:15JAX +8% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 17-D.Chark Jr. to LAC 12 for 22 yards (20-D.King).
1st · 7:15JAX +6% win prob(7:15) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to LAC 48 for 27 yards (26-J.Wilson).
1st · 11:15JAX +5% win prob(11:15) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to LAC 39 for 11 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
2nd · 12:16LAC +5% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II sacked at JAX 34 for -4 yards (97-J.Bosa).
2nd · 8:10JAX +5% win prob(8:10) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to JAX 25 for 23 yards (56-Q.Williams).
1st · 14:21JAX +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Gordon's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:50 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:27J.Lambo·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Orzech+30–3
1st5:50M.Gordon·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
Chargers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.99 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.65Chargers: +0.65 expected points added per play
−0.16Jaguars: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.99Chargers: +0.99 expected points added per play
−0.22Jaguars: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Chargers: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.00Jaguars: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 56 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 63 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Jaguars 3.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.65 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 7 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 14.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −3.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Jaguars25.0%
leaned — got home · +6.9 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 33.7 points above their season mean of 33.0% and 1.6 times their own 20.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Ronnie HarrisonDBTae HayesDBDontavius RussellDTCarl DavisNTBrandon ThomasOGJoshua DobbsQBSeth DeValveTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Nick FolesQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:39) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to JAX 7 for 45 yards (26-J.Wilson).
Q1 6:39 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at LAC 48 · gained 45 · +2.99 EP · +9.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 84 yards from the LAC 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
47%
Yards
777
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3178%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+1.0265%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18+0.0133%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR11-0.2064%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.3313%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3140%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Chargers0Jaguars3
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chargers 8
Chargers6Jaguars3
Chargers7Jaguars3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Jaguars 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 34
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 45
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 38
Chargers13Jaguars3
Chargers14Jaguars3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jaguars 1
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chargers 48
Chargers20Jaguars3
Chargers21Jaguars3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Jaguars 30
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 33
Chargers24Jaguars3
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Jaguars 22
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter38 plays
Chargers30Jaguars3
Chargers31Jaguars3
Touchdown5 plays
Chargers31Jaguars9
Chargers31Jaguars10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Chargers 12
Chargers37Jaguars10
Chargers38Jaguars10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Jaguars 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 38
4th quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Chargers44Jaguars10
Chargers45Jaguars10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 12
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 28
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Chargers 36
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Jaguars 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
