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New York Jets 22, Dolphins 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 10, on S.Ficken — 49.3 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 10
S.Ficken
Jets
(:03) 9-S.Ficken 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
49.3
Jets closed -5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
New York Jets 22–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Jets +49.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
V.SmithJetsQ4 1:29(1:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 17-V.Smith pushed ob at MIA 38 for 37 yards (55-J.Baker).
21.2pts
S.DarnoldJetsQ4 0:47(:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 17-V.Smith (40-N.Needham). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 17-V.Smith (40-N.Needham). PENALTY on MIA-40-N.Needham, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play.
23.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jets won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 13 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Dolphins175 of 185 plays carry both curves
(:03) 9-S.Ficken 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Swing +49.3 for JetsExpected points +0.65 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 184
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03NYJ +49% win prob(:03) 9-S.Ficken 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
4th · 0:47NYJ +24% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 17-V.Smith (40-N.Needham). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 17-V.Smith (40-N.Needham). PENALTY on MIA-40-N.Needham, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play.
4th · 1:29NYJ +21% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 17-V.Smith pushed ob at MIA 38 for 37 yards (55-J.Baker).
3rd · 7:47MIA +19% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 17-V.Smith INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Parker at MIA 42. 26-S.Parker pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 35 yards (29-B.Powell).
4th · 1:17MIA +18% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIA 46 for -8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
4th · 2:19NYJ +14% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
S.Ficken's 44-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st3:10J.Sanders·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+33–0
2nd0:22J.Sanders·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+39–16
3rd10:46J.Sanders·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+312–16
4th10:56J.Sanders·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+315–16
4th7:03J.Sanders·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+318–16
4th4:09S.Ficken·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+318–19
4th1:37J.Sanders·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+321–19
4th0:03S.Ficken·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+321–22
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Dolphins2–6Jets
362Total yards375
5.6Yards per play5.6
43%Success rate40%
31%Third-down rate43%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays4
17First downs19
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Jets ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Dolphins: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.02Jets: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Dolphins: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.20Jets: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Dolphins: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.28Jets: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 65 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Jets’s 67 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 6, Jets 4.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 26.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 20.9% in week 6.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 13.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 14.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 13.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 35.2 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.5% in week 13 against 44.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jets26.7%
leaned — got home · +12.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.92× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.7%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 14.6% and 1.9 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arthur MauletCBBrian PooleCBPaul WorrilowOLBLe'Veon BellRBMatthias FarleySSJamal AdamsSSChuma EdogaT
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Leo KoloamatangiCDavid FalesQBJosh AdamsRB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Ficken+49% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 9-S.Ficken 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q4 0:03 · Jets · 3rd & 10 at MIA 26 · gained nothing · +0.65 EP · +48.8% win probability
173 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 92 yards from the MIA 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
736
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0257%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR43-0.0358%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11+0.0891%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3443%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1629%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Dolphins3Jets0
Field goal17 plays, from the Dolphins 4 to the Jets 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Dolphins 45
2nd quarter50 plays
Dolphins3Jets6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Dolphins 26
Intercepted2 plays
Dolphins3Jets9
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Dolphins 19
Dolphins6Jets9
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Jets 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Dolphins6Jets15
Dolphins6Jets16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Dolphins 14
Dolphins9Jets16
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Dolphins12Jets16
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 44
No good4 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 16
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Dolphins 14
Punt4 plays
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter57 plays
Punt2 plays
Dolphins15Jets16
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Jets 25
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 27
Dolphins18Jets16
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Jets 29
Dolphins18Jets19
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 24
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Dolphins21Jets19
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Drive ended4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 38
The period ended1 play
Dolphins21Jets22
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Dolphins 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jets -5
Closing total
47
Dolphins moneyline
+189
Jets moneyline
-213
Jets closed -5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47; the game landed 43 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 39°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Adam Gase
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(2:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 17-A.Hurns to NYJ 36 for 15 yards (20-M.Maye).
3rd · 11:36NYJ +10% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep right to [86]. PENALTY on NYJ-31-B.Austin, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at NYJ 47 - No Play.
4th · 2:23MIA +9% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles right tackle to NYJ 34 for 7 yards (97-N.Shepherd). PENALTY on MIA-63-M.Deiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 41 - No Play.
