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2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · MetLife Stadium

Miami Dolphins

21

New York JetsWinner

22

NYJ -5 no coverU 47 ✓

New York Jets 22–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, NYJ +49% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑MIA ↓
Q4 · 0:03MIA — NYJ NYJ ball · 3rd & 10NYJ 51%

(:03) 9-S.Ficken 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03NYJ +49% win prob(:03) 9-S.Ficken 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
  2. Q4 · 0:47NYJ +24% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 17-V.Smith (40-N.Needham). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 17-V.Smith (40-N.Needham). PENALTY on MIA-40-N.Needham, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play.
  3. Q4 · 1:29NYJ +21% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 17-V.Smith pushed ob at MIA 38 for 37 yards (55-J.Baker).
  4. Q3 · 7:47MIA +19% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 17-V.Smith INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Parker at MIA 42. 26-S.Parker pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 35 yards (29-B.Powell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsJets
Offensive plays6567
Total yards362375 (edge)
Yards per play5.65.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.04-0.02 (edge)
Success rate43% (edge)40%
Dropback rate69%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.050.20 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.23 (edge)-0.28
Third downs4/136/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps1719 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers11

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 2510303:43Punt
2MIAMIA 416778:11Turnover on downs
3NYJNYJ 2612744:21Touchdown
4MIAMIA 25200:08Interception
5NYJMIA 447252:36Turnover on downs
6MIAMIA 2711525:20Turnover on downs
7NYJNYJ 239773:46Touchdown
8MIAMIA 259601:36Turnover on downs
9NYJNYJ 25200:19End of half
10MIAMIA 2510244:17Turnover on downs
11NYJNYJ 257193:07Interception
12MIANYJ 23471:30Turnover on downs
13NYJNYJ 2411515:06Turnover on downs
14MIAMIA 14400:23Punt
15NYJMIA 47430:54Punt
16MIAMIA 208553:51Turnover on downs
17NYJNYJ 23541:35Punt
18MIAMIA 355212:18Turnover on downs
19NYJNYJ 2510512:54Turnover on downs
20MIAMIA 2510662:32Turnover on downs
21NYJNYJ 258411:33Turnover on downs

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 77 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -5
Closing total
47
MIA moneyline
+189
NYJ moneyline
-213

Jets closed -5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 43 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
41°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
MIA 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.