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2019 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 9, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
GiantsNew York17
BY 6final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia23
New York Giants 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 23. Final.
Eagles -9.5 no coverU 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Philadelphia Eagles 23, Giants 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 9:28, 1st and 10, on B.Scott — 17.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 9:28 · 1st and 10
B.Scott
Eagles
(9:28) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right end ran ob at NYG 39 for 25 yards (41-A.Bethea).
17.7
Eagles closed -9.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 23–17. Biggest swing: OT 9:28, Eagles +17.7% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.SlaytonGiantsQ2 0:35(:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.1pts
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ4 1:32(1:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to PHI 24, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
14.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 9 of 21 on third down, against Giants at 2 of 12 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Eagles at 1 giveaway.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Giants179 of 190 plays carry both curves
(9:28) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right end ran ob at NYG 39 for 25 yards (41-A.Bethea).
Swing +17.7 for EaglesExpected points +1.49 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 9:28PHI +18% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right end ran ob at NYG 39 for 25 yards (41-A.Bethea).
2nd · 0:35PHI +16% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:32NYG +14% win prob(1:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to PHI 24, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
4th · 10:00NYG +13% win prob(10:00) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
2nd · 15:00PHI +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:35NYG +11% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton (22-S.Jones).
4th · 1:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Z.Ertz's 2-yard touchdown catch with 5:13 left in overtime put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime5:13Z.Ertz·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom C.Wentzfrom C.WentzLead never changed again+617–23
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Giants3–6Eagles
256Total yards418
5.0Yards per play4.9
35%Success rate46%
17%Third-down rate43%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays7
11First downs25
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Giants: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.01Eagles: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Giants: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.07Eagles: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Giants: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.14Eagles: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 51 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Eagles’s 85 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 80.0% in week 13 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.5 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.6% in week 13 against 18.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Eagles15.6%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 36.2 points below their season mean of 36.2% and 1.1 times their own 32.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
C.Johnston punts−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.
Q4 0:19 · Eagles · 4th & 1 at PHI 45 · gained nothing · -0.17 EP · −18.0% win probability
177 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 85 yards from the PHI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
673
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR59+0.0368%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0268%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11-0.6455%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.6643%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.6983%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 39
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 21
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 43
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 3 to the Eagles 21
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Eagles 32
2nd quarter53 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Giants6Eagles0
Giants7Eagles0
Touchdown2 plays
Giants7Eagles3
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 9
Giants10Eagles3
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 9
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 33
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 5 to the Giants 6
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Giants16Eagles3
Giants17Eagles3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 45
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Eagles 48
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 30
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Giants 47
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 16
Giants17Eagles9
Giants17Eagles10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Giants 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 40
4th quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays
No good11 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Giants 28
Punt4 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Giants17Eagles16
Giants17Eagles17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Giants 1
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Eagles 45
The period ended2 plays
Overtime11 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Giants17Eagles23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
