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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · State Farm Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh23
BY 6final margin
CardinalsArizona17
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 at Arizona Cardinals 17. Final.
Steelers -2.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Cardinals 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 8:13, 2nd and 5, on J.Haden — 15.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:13 · 2nd and 5
J.Haden
Steelers
(8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 29-C.Edmonds INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden at PIT 23. 23-J.Haden to PIT 27 for 4 yards (53-A.Shipley).
Dome
Steelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23–17. Biggest swing: Q3 8:13, Steelers +15.1% win probability on one snap.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.ClayCardinalsQ2 1:57(1:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-C.Clay for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.5pts
C.EdmondsCardinalsQ3 11:32(11:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-C.Edmonds. 29-C.Edmonds left end ran ob at 50 for 9 yards (29-K.Kelly).
10.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 3 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Steelers146 of 156 plays carry both curves
(8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 29-C.Edmonds INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden at PIT 23. 23-J.Haden to PIT 27 for 4 yards (53-A.Shipley).
Swing −15.1 for CardinalsExpected points −5.53 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 13 points higher than the market did.play 95
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:13PIT +15% win prob(8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 29-C.Edmonds INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden at PIT 23. 23-J.Haden to PIT 27 for 4 yards (53-A.Shipley).
2nd · 1:57ARI +11% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-C.Clay for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:32ARI +10% win prob(11:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-C.Edmonds. 29-C.Edmonds left end ran ob at 50 for 9 yards (29-K.Kelly).
1st · 8:59ARI +10% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short right to 33-Tr.Edmunds to ARI 46 for 7 yards (59-J.Walker). PENALTY on ARI-58-J.Hicks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 46.
4th · 6:49ARI +9% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 31-D.Johnson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:13PIT +9% win prob(3:13) 4-A.Lee punts 60 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-D.Johnson for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Boswell's 37-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:24C.Boswell·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–0
1st3:13D.Johnson·85-yd return TD85-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+710–0
2nd11:19Z.Gonzalez·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+310–3
4th1:46C.Boswell·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+323–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryCardinals
Steelers6–0Cardinals
276Total yards236
4.9Yards per play4.1
45%Success rate40%
36%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays3
16First downs16
3Sacks taken5
2Turnovers3
The read
Steelers ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Steelers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.16Cardinals: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Steelers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.18Cardinals: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Steelers: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.11Cardinals: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 56 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 57 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Cardinals 4.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Cardinals15.4%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.6%, 14.7 points below their season mean of 53.3% and 1.0 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 29-C.Edmonds INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden at PIT 23. 23-J.Haden to PIT 27 for 4 yards (53-A.Shipley).
Q3 8:13 · Cardinals · 2nd & 5 at PIT 26 · gained nothing · -5.53 EP · −16.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 85 yards from the ARI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
42%
Yards
511
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1758%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.0359%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.8258%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10-0.29100%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.5211%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3033%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5-0.630%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Steelers3Cardinals0
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Cardinals 12
Steelers9Cardinals0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 25
Steelers10Cardinals0
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cardinals 22
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 30
2nd quarter41 plays
Steelers10Cardinals3
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 3
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Cardinals 42
Steelers10Cardinals9
Steelers10Cardinals10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Steelers 5
Steelers13Cardinals10
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Cardinals 19
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Steelers 21
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Steelers 26
Steelers19Cardinals10
Steelers20Cardinals10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 43
4th quarter42 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 6
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Steelers20Cardinals16
Steelers20Cardinals17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Steelers 24
Steelers23Cardinals17
Field goal16 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Cardinals 7
Intercepted6 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
