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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
SeahawksSeattle12
BY 16final margin
RamsLos Angeles28
Seattle Seahawks 12 at Los Angeles Rams 28. Final.
Rams -1 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Los Angeles Rams 28, Seahawks 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:36, 3rd and 9, on T.Higbee — 11.8 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:36 · 3rd and 9
T.Higbee
Rams
(5:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 1 for 33 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
11.8
Rams closed -1 and covered, winning by 16.
Los Angeles Rams 28–12. Biggest swing: Q1 5:36, Rams +11.8% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.WoodsRamsQ1 7:26(7:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods to 50 for 19 yards (21-T.Flowers, 37-Q.Diggs) [91-J.Reed].
6.2pts
Q.DiggsSeahawksQ3 13:05(13:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Diggs [49-Sm.Griffin] at SEA 45. 37-Q.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 5 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Seahawks at 5 of 14 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Seahawks164 of 178 plays carry both curves
(5:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 1 for 33 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
Swing +11.8 for RamsExpected points +3.92 for RamsThe model had Rams 6 points higher than the market did.play 22
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:36LA +12% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 1 for 33 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
3rd · 13:05SEA +7% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Diggs [49-Sm.Griffin] at SEA 45. 37-Q.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:26LA +6% win prob(7:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods to 50 for 19 yards (21-T.Flowers, 37-Q.Diggs) [91-J.Reed].
1st · 8:39LA +6% win prob(8:39) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
1st · 15:00SEA +6% win prob(15:00) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 26 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald; 69-S.Joseph). PENALTY on SEA, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 25 - No Play.
1st · 13:49LA +6% win prob(13:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Gordon pushed ob at SEA 33 for 11 yards (22-T.Hill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Brown's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:12 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:39J.Myers·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–0
1st5:12M.Brown·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
4th7:07J.Myers·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+312–28
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryRams
Seahawks1–8Rams
308Total yards456
5.0Yards per play6.9
45%Success rate52%
36%Third-down rate54%
0Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays12
17First downs26
5Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Seahawks: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Seahawks: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.19Rams: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Seahawks: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.03Rams: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 62 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Rams’s 66 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 73.9%, is past their previous high of 70.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 13.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Rams22.2%
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.9%, 20.0 points above their season mean of 53.9% and 2.0 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
David LongCBDonte' DeayonCBJake GervaseDBJamil DembyGNatrez PatrickLBRob HavensteinTGerald EverettTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Blake BortlesQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 1 for 33 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
Q1 5:36 · Rams · 3rd & 9 at SEA 34 · gained 33 · +3.92 EP · +9.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 95 yards from the LA 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
763
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR47+0.1830%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1179%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.1894%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2757%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0433%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.2240%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Seahawks3Rams0
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 15
Seahawks3Rams6
Seahawks3Rams7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 1
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Seahawks 41
2nd quarter51 plays
Seahawks3Rams13
Seahawks3Rams14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 2
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 24
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 31
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 23
Seahawks3Rams20
Seahawks3Rams21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Seahawks 10
The period ended11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 47
3rd quarter39 plays
Seahawks9Rams21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 43
Intercepted7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Seahawks 37
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 3 to the Seahawks 7
No good6 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Seahawks 19
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Rams 41
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 19
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Seahawks9Rams27
Seahawks9Rams28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks12Rams28
Field goal16 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 11
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Rams 20
Intercepted13 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Rams 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
