2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
San Francisco 49ersWinner
48
New Orleans Saints
46
San Francisco 49ers 48–46 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, NO +46% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to NO 28 for 39 yards (43-M.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on NO-43-M.Williams, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at NO 28. Pass 7, YAC 31
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:39NO +46% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to NO 28 for 39 yards (43-M.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on NO-43-M.Williams, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at NO 28. Pass 7, YAC 31
- Q4 · 0:02NO +26% win prob(:02) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
- Q3 · 10:34SF +21% win prob(10:34) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 20 for no gain (93-D.Jones). FUMBLES (93-D.Jones), RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at NO 20. 99-D.Buckner to NO 20 for no gain (67-L.Warford).
- Q4 · 1:00NO +21% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 10-T.Smith for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 13
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | 49ers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 70 |
| Total yards | 517 (edge) | 465 |
| Yards per play | 8.3 (edge) | 6.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.35 (edge) | 0.12 |
| Success rate | 48% | 50% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 61% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.50 (edge) | 0.35 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.08 (edge) | -0.24 |
| Third downs | 6/12 (edge) | 5/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 13 (edge) | 9 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 | 28 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 27 | 11 | 73 | 3:26 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | SF | SF 25 | 8 | 80 | 3:08 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | NO | NO 46 | 8 | 54 | 3:35 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | SF | SF 25 | 5 | -6 | 2:23 | Punt | |
| 5 | NO | SF 29 | 6 | 29 | 2:31 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | SF | SF 25 | 3 | 75 | 0:14 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | NO | NO 16 | 14 | 84 | 7:14 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | SF | SF 25 | 5 | 75 | 1:30 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | NO | NO 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 10 | SF | SF 20 | 10 | 95 | 3:34 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | NO | NO 28 | 4 | 19 | 0:42 | End of half | |
| 12 | SF | SF 21 | 4 | 14 | 1:30 | Interception | |
| 13 | NO | SF 40 | 4 | 3 | 0:54 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | SF | SF 25 | 5 | 6 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 15 | NO | NO 20 | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | Fumble | |
| 16 | SF | NO 20 | 3 | 20 | 0:48 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | NO | NO 25 | 11 | 45 | 4:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | SF | SF 25 | 5 | 2 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 19 | NO | 50 | 5 | 15 | 2:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | SF | SF 45 | 15 | 54 | 6:57 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | NO | NO 25 | 7 | 70 | 2:53 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | SF | SF 25 | 12 | 52 | 3:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | NO | NO 24 | 9 | 70 | 1:30 | Touchdown | |
| 24 | SF | SF 25 | 8 | 50 | 0:53 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -1
- Closing total
- 45
- SF moneyline
- +105
- NO moneyline
- -116
Saints closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 94 — over by 49.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Superdome
- Roof / surface
- dome · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- John Hussey
- Rest
- SF 7 days · NO 10 days
- Coaches
- Kyle Shanahan vs Sean Payton