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2019 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum
Final
TitansTennessee42
BY 21final margin
RaidersOakland21
Tennessee Titans 42 at Oakland Raiders 21. Final.
Titans -3 ✓O 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Tennessee Titans 42, Raiders 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:10, 3rd and 8, on M.Hurst — 20.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:10 · 3rd and 8
M.Hurst
Raiders
(9:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 73-M.Hurst (95-D.Jordan) at LV 21. 73-M.Hurst to TEN 24 for 55 yards (17-R.Tannehill). Passed tipped by #95 D.Jordan
Titans closed -3 and covered, winning by 21.
Tennessee Titans 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:10, Raiders +20.8% win probability on one snap.
20.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.BrownTitansQ2 14:16(14:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-C.Ferrell].
18.9pts
R.GaffordTitansQ2 10:50(10:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-R.Gafford for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 27.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 100 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Titans155 of 165 plays carry both curves
(9:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 73-M.Hurst (95-D.Jordan) at LV 21. 73-M.Hurst to TEN 24 for 55 yards (17-R.Tannehill). Passed tipped by #95 D.Jordan
Swing +20.8 for RaidersExpected points +8.09 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 12 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:10TEN +21% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 73-M.Hurst (95-D.Jordan) at LV 21. 73-M.Hurst to TEN 24 for 55 yards (17-R.Tannehill). Passed tipped by #95 D.Jordan
2nd · 14:16OAK +19% win prob(14:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-C.Ferrell].
2nd · 10:50OAK +17% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-R.Gafford for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:04TEN +14% win prob(:04) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
1st · 14:55OAK +11% win prob(14:55) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 34 for 7 yards (96-C.Ferrell).
3rd · 6:10OAK +10% win prob(6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 85-M.Pruitt to LV 10 for 42 yards (21-D.Swearinger).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Henry's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 5:40 left in the 3rd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.3% in week 13 against 7.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 8 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 0.6 pts, 6.8 points above their season mean of -6.2 pts and 1.2 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−24% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 73-M.Hurst (95-D.Jordan) at LV 21. 73-M.Hurst to TEN 24 for 55 yards (17-R.Tannehill). Passed tipped by #95 D.Jordan
Q1 9:10 · Titans · 3rd & 8 at LV 19 · gained nothing · -8.09 EP · −23.7% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 91 yards from the TEN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
48%
Yards
907
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.1162%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.5368%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.6239%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1942%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2817%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3117%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5380%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Raiders 19
Titans0Raiders6
Titans0Raiders7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 14
Titans6Raiders7
Titans7Raiders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Raiders 12
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Titans 46
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Raiders 49
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Titans13Raiders7
Titans14Raiders7
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Titans14Raiders13
Titans14Raiders14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Titans 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Titans20Raiders14
Titans21Raiders14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Raiders 6
Titans21Raiders20
Titans21Raiders21
Touchdown20 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Titans 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Raiders 24
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Titans 39
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Titans 10
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 47 to the Raiders 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Titans27Raiders21
Titans28Raiders21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Raiders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Raiders 40
4th quarter39 plays
Titans34Raiders21
Titans35Raiders21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 17
Titans41Raiders21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 45
Titans42Raiders21
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Titans 49
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 25
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Titans 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 2 to the Titans 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Titans0
Raiders6
