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Washington Commanders 15 at Green Bay Packers 20. Final.
Packers -13 no coverU 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 14
Green Bay Packers 20, Commanders 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:58, 1st and 10, on A.Rodgers — 3.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:58 · 1st and 10
A.Rodgers
Commanders
(:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at WAS 38 for -11 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-52-R.Anderson at WAS 40. 52-R.Anderson to WAS 40 for no gain (75-B.Bulaga).
Packers closed -13, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 20–15. Biggest swing: Q2 0:58, Commanders +3.4% win probability on one snap.
3.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.GrahamPackersQ1 12:50(12:50) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham to WAS 30 for 20 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
3.4pts
A.RodgersCommandersQ1 6:13(6:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at WAS 49 for -7 yards (91-R.Kerrigan).
3.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Packers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 5 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Commanders154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at WAS 38 for -11 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-52-R.Anderson at WAS 40. 52-R.Anderson to WAS 40 for no gain (75-B.Bulaga).
Swing −3.4 for PackersExpected points −4.70 for PackersThe model had Commanders 7 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:58WAS +3% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at WAS 38 for -11 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-52-R.Anderson at WAS 40. 52-R.Anderson to WAS 40 for no gain (75-B.Bulaga).
1st · 12:50GB +3% win prob(12:50) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham to WAS 30 for 20 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
1st · 6:13WAS +3% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at WAS 49 for -7 yards (91-R.Kerrigan).
4th · 8:28GB +3% win prob(8:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 33-A.Jones to GB 32 for 25 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
4th · 10:05WAS +3% win prob(10:05) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to GB 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.
4th · 10:10WAS +2% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete deep middle to 13-K.Harmon.
1st · 11:12
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Jones's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 9:10 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:10A.Jones·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Packers ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.07Packers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Commanders: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.08Packers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Commanders: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.28Packers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 59 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Packers’s 57 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, −14.7 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 23.3%, is past their previous high of 21.7% in week 12 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Packers23.3%
leaned — got home · +8.7 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.5%, 8.8 points above their season mean of 14.7% and 1.5 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
75Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%63 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%63 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%63 snaps
7Dwayne HaskinsQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
72Donald PennT · Every snap100%63 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time95%60 snaps
13Kelvin HarmonWR · Full-time84%53 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Heavy rotation75%47 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Heavy rotation71%45 snaps
26Adrian PetersonRB · Rotational44%28 snaps
25Chris ThompsonRB · Rotational38%24 snaps
88Hale HentgesTE · Rotational33%21 snaps
66Tony BergstromG · Situational21%13 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational14%9 snaps
29Derrius GuiceRB · Situational14%9 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Situational5%3 snaps
34Wendell SmallwoodRB · Situational3%2 snaps
84Darvin KidsyWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Ross PierschbacherCAaron ColvinCBJosh Harvey-ClemonsILBChris OdomOLBColt McCoyQBPaul RichardsonWRTrey QuinnWR
Tony BrownCBKa'Dar HollmanCBKevin KingCBAdam PankeyGYosh NijmanOTDexter WilliamsRBRyan GrantWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tim BoyleQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers sacked−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at WAS 38 for -11 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson), RECOVERED by WAS-52-R.Anderson at WAS 40. 52-R.Anderson to WAS 40 for no gain (75-B.Bulaga).
Q2 0:58 · Packers · 1st & 10 at WAS 27 · lost 13 · -4.70 EP · −9.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 95 yards from the WAS 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
35%
Yards
603
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0970%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.0468%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0340%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0456%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8-0.150%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.6250%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 26
Commanders0Packers6
Commanders0Packers7
Touchdown10 plays, from midfield to the Commanders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 13
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Commanders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 21
Commanders0Packers13
Commanders0Packers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Commanders 12
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Packers 42
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Commanders 45
Commanders6Packers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 5 to the Packers 2
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Commanders 27
Intercepted6 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Packers 41
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Commanders6Packers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Commanders 15
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Commanders 44
Commanders9Packers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Packers 34
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 36
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 30 to midfield
Commanders9Packers20
Field goal17 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Commanders 15
Commanders15Packers20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Packers 13
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Commanderscategory by categoryPackers
Commanders0
Packers6
