2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Levi's Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -10.5 upsetO 50 ✓49ers closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 29–22. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, SF +48% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:05ATL — SF ATL ball · 3rd & 5SF 74%

(:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:05SF +48% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:02ATL +35% win prob7-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SF 22 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at SF 3, RECOVERED by ATL-17-O.Zaccheaus at SF 0. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:00SF +14% win prob(11:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 7 yards (82-R.Dwelley). FUMBLES (82-R.Dwelley), RECOVERED by SF-44-K.Juszczyk at ATL 15. 44-K.Juszczyk to ATL 1 for 14 yards (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).
Q4 · 1:11SF +14% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 24 for 25 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 35. 11-yac

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	49ers
Offensive plays	61	62
Total yards	291	313 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	48% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	74%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	18	18
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

49ers outgained Falcons 313–291 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	7	11	3:00	Punt
2	SF	SF 20	4	-5	1:29	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 41	5	17	1:53	Punt
4	SF	SF 12	22	83	10:43	Touchdown
5	ATL	ATL 30	12	70	5:54	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 25	5	5	0:48	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 35	9	50	3:37	Turnover on downs
8	SF	SF 25	9	76	2:12	Turnover on downs
9	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:24	End of half
10	SF	SF 31	6	17	2:26	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 8	6	7	3:20	Punt
12	SF	SF 37	6	25	4:00	Turnover on downs
13	ATL	ATL 23	5	12	2:37	Punt
14	SF	SF 27	4	39	2:04	Fumble
15	ATL	ATL 34	7	16	1:49	Punt
16	SF	SF 13	7	22	3:00	Punt
17	SF	ATL 1	3	1	0:37	Touchdown
18	ATL	ATL 25	11	38	4:52	Touchdown
19	SF	SF 25	9	50	3:27	Turnover on downs
20	ATL	ATL 30	12	70	1:46	Touchdown
21	SF	—	1	0	0:02	Defensive touchdown

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 83 scrimmage yards over 22 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -10.5
Closing total: 50
ATL moneyline: +376
SF moneyline: -460

49ers closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 51 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: ATL 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Kyle Shanahan