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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 29 at San Francisco 49ers 22. Final.
49ers -10.5 upsetO 50 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Atlanta Falcons 29, 49ers 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:05, 3rd and 5, on J.Jones — 48.3 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:05 · 3rd and 5
J.Jones
Falcons
(:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 29–22. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, Falcons +48.3% win probability on one snap.
48.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheet49ersQ4 11:00(11:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 7 yards (82-R.Dwelley). FUMBLES (82-R.Dwelley), RECOVERED by SF-44-K.Juszczyk at ATL 15. 44-K.Juszczyk to ATL 1 for 14 yards (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).
14.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetFalconsQ4 0:027-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SF 22 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at SF 3, RECOVERED by ATL-17-O.Zaccheaus at SF 0. TOUCHDOWN.
35.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against 49ers at 4 of 12 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Falcons168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to
Swing −48.3 for 49ersExpected points −4.16 for 49ersThe model had Falcons 17 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:05SF +48% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:02ATL +35% win prob7-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SF 22 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at SF 3, RECOVERED by ATL-17-O.Zaccheaus at SF 0. TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:00SF +14% win prob(11:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 7 yards (82-R.Dwelley). FUMBLES (82-R.Dwelley), RECOVERED by SF-44-K.Juszczyk at ATL 15. 44-K.Juszczyk to ATL 1 for 14 yards (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).
4th · 1:11SF +14% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 24 for 25 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 35. 11-yac
3rd · 0:44ATL +13% win prob(:44) 22-M.Breida left tackle to ATL 34 for 4 yards (59-D.Campbell, 97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (59-D.Campbell), RECOVERED by ATL-59-D.Campbell at ATL 34. 59-D.Campbell to ATL 34 for no gain (74-J.Staley).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Jones's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:05 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th1:52R.Gould·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+317–22
4th0:05J.Jones·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom M.Ryanfrom M.Ryan · two-point no goodLead never changed again+623–22
4th0:02O.Zaccheaus·return TDreturn touchdownon the kickon the kick+629–22
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by category49ers
Falcons4–349ers
291Total yards313
4.8Yards per play5.0
48%Success rate44%
54%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays4
18First downs18
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Falcons ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Falcons: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.0649ers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Falcons: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.0549ers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Falcons: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.2049ers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 61 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against 49ers’s 62 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, 49ers 3.
Note49ers outgained Falcons 313-291 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.1 pts in week 14 against +7.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.0% in week 14 against 17.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.3% in week 14 against 68.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
49ers17.8%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's pass rate over expected, 0.7 pts against a season mean of -5.9 pts — and SF swings 6.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%67 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%67 snaps
51Alex MackC · Every snap100%67 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%67 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
11Julio JonesWR · Full-time88%59 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Full-time85%57 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Full-time82%55 snaps
24Devonta FreemanRB · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
83Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation76%51 snaps
80Luke StockerTE · Rotational33%22 snaps
23Brian HillHB · Situational15%10 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Situational13%9 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational7%5 snaps
14Justin HardyWR · Situational7%5 snaps
87Jaeden GrahamTE · Situational6%4 snaps
38Kenjon BarnerRB · Situational4%3 snaps
30Qadree OllisonRB · Situational1%1 snap
75John WetzelT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Allen BaileyDEJohn CominskyDEJamon BrownGJames CarpenterGAhmad ThomasILBTy SambrailoTBrandon PowellWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt SchaubQB
San Francisco 49ers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
63Ben GarlandG · Every snap100%64 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%64 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
74Joe StaleyT · Every snap100%64 snaps
—Michael PersonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time95%61 snaps
17Emmanuel SandersWR · Full-time95%61 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time89%57 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Heavy rotation53%34 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation53%34 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational39%25 snaps
26Tevin ColemanRB · Rotational30%19 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Situational19%12 snaps
83Levine ToiloloTE · Situational17%11 snaps
13Richie JamesWR · Situational5%3 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Richard ShermanCBK'Waun WilliamsCBDee FordDEJullian TaylorDTJaquiski TarttFSC.J. BeathardQBJordan MatthewsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Mike PersonCNick MullensQBDaniel HelmTEDante PettisWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Y.Koo kicks−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
7-Y.Koo kicks 34 yards from ATL 35 to SF 31. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to SF 15 for -16 yards. Lateral to 13-R.James Jr. to SF 22 for 7 yards. Lateral to 31-R.Mostert to SF 22 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at SF 3, RECOVERED by ATL-17-O.Zaccheaus at SF 0. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:02 · 49ers · Kickoff at ATL 35 · gained nothing · -7.01 EP · −37.6% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 88 yards from the SF 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
45%
Yards
603
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1375%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0767%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.0948%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1540%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.6550%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0880%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 41
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 22
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the 49ers 48
The period ended18 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the Falcons 24
2nd quarter51 plays
Falcons049ers6
Falcons049ers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Falcons 2
Falcons649ers7
Falcons749ers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the 49ers 5
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 30
Falcons1049ers7
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the 49ers 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Falcons1049ers10
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Falcons 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 48
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 19
Falcons1049ers13
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Falcons 28
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 28
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Falcons 38
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 35
Falcons1049ers19
Touchdown3 plays
Falcons1649ers19
Falcons1749ers19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the 49ers 1
Falcons1749ers22
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Falcons 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Falcons2349ers22
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Touchdown14 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the 49ers 5
Falcons2949ers22
Touchdown1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Falconscategory by category49ers
Falcons0
49ers6
