2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Heinz Field

Buffalo BillsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -1 upsetU 37 ✓31°FSteelers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 17–10. Biggest swing: Q3 1:34, BUF +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:34BUF — PIT PIT ball · 1st & 10PIT 75%

(1:34) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 33. 27-T.White pushed ob at PIT 18 for 49 yards (71-M.Feiler).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:34BUF +31% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 33. 27-T.White pushed ob at PIT 18 for 49 yards (71-M.Feiler).
Q2 · 2:42BUF +17% win prob(2:42) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 22-S.Nelson at PIT 47. 22-S.Nelson to BUF 20 for 33 yards (42-P.DiMarco).
Q4 · 8:00PIT +16% win prob(8:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Kroft for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:00BUF +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-J.Conner. 30-J.Conner Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at BUF 15, recovered by PIT-30-J.Conner at BUF 15. 30-J.Conner to BUF 15 for no gain. Handoff to 18-D.Johnson to BUF 13 for 2 yards (93-T.Murphy). FUMBLES (93-T.Murphy), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at BUF 9.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Steelers
Offensive plays	63	56
Total yards	262 (edge)	229
Yards per play	4.2 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.15 (edge)	-0.40
Success rate	37%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.38
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20 (edge)	-0.48
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2 (edge)	5

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.40.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 10	8	23	2:47	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 17	7	28	3:23	Interception
3	BUF	BUF 25	6	16	2:41	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 18	4	0	2:24	Punt
5	BUF	PIT 40	10	40	4:23	Touchdown
6	PIT	PIT 28	7	36	2:56	Turnover on downs
7	BUF	BUF 24	9	26	3:29	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 26	4	0	1:36	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 18	5	14	3:53	Interception
10	PIT	BUF 20	1	0	0:35	Fumble
11	BUF	BUF 9	3	12	1:53	End of half
12	PIT	PIT 31	9	67	3:42	Touchdown
13	BUF	BUF 25	7	43	2:17	Fumble
14	PIT	PIT 31	4	-6	2:13	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 36	5	7	2:02	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 31	6	21	3:22	Interception
17	BUF	PIT 18	7	0	4:01	Turnover on downs
18	PIT	PIT 25	5	7	2:20	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 30	7	69	2:08	Touchdown
20	PIT	PIT 24	5	0	0:25	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 23	4	6	2:17	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 19	9	63	3:19	Interception
23	BUF	BUF 20	4	6	0:23	Punt
24	PIT	PIT 43	6	13	1:25	Interception
25	BUF	BUF 20	1	0	0:06	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 69 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -1
Closing total: 37
BUF moneyline: +101
PIT moneyline: -112

Steelers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37; the game landed 27 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 31°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: BUF 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike Tomlin