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Buffalo Bills 17 at Pittsburgh Steelers 10. Final.
Steelers -1 upsetU 37 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Buffalo Bills 17, Steelers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 1:34, 1st and 10, on T.White — 30.6 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:34 · 1st and 10
T.White
Bills
(1:34) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 33. 27-T.White pushed ob at PIT 18 for 49 yards (71-M.Feiler).
28°F
Steelers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 17–10. Biggest swing: Q3 1:34, Bills +30.6% win probability on one snap.
30.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.NelsonSteelersQ2 2:42(2:42) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 22-S.Nelson at PIT 47. 22-S.Nelson to BUF 20 for 33 yards (42-P.DiMarco).
17.2pts
T.KroftBillsQ4 8:00(8:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Kroft for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 2 giveaways, against Steelers at 5 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — -0.20 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.48 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — -0.15 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — -0.10 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.38 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Bills155 of 165 plays carry both curves
(1:34) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 33. 27-T.White pushed ob at PIT 18 for 49 yards (71-M.Feiler).
Swing −30.6 for SteelersExpected points −8.02 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 108
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:34BUF +31% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 33. 27-T.White pushed ob at PIT 18 for 49 yards (71-M.Feiler).
2nd · 2:42BUF +17% win prob(2:42) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 22-S.Nelson at PIT 47. 22-S.Nelson to BUF 20 for 33 yards (42-P.DiMarco).
4th · 8:00PIT +16% win prob(8:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 81-T.Kroft for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00BUF +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-J.Conner. 30-J.Conner Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at BUF 15, recovered by PIT-30-J.Conner at BUF 15. 30-J.Conner to BUF 15 for no gain. Handoff to 18-D.Johnson to BUF 13 for 2 yards (93-T.Murphy). FUMBLES (93-T.Murphy), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at BUF 9.
4th · 2:00BUF +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep left intended for 17-D.Cain INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.
3rd · 9:10BUF +14% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Kroft's 14-yard touchdown catch with 8:00 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th12:27S.Hauschka·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+310–10
4th8:00T.Kroft·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Allenfrom J.AllenLead never changed again+717–10
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categorySteelers
Bills8–1Steelers
262Total yards229
4.2Yards per play4.1
37%Success rate38%
43%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
18First downs13
1Sacks taken4
2Turnovers5
The read
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Bills: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.40Steelers: −0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Bills: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.38Steelers: −0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Bills: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.48Steelers: −0.48 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 63 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Steelers’s 56 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Steelers 2.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 38.6% in week 14 against 69.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Steelers13.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.0%, 15.7 points above their season mean of 53.3% and 1.1 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%65 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%65 snaps
70Cody FordT · Every snap100%65 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%65 snaps
15John BrownWR · Full-time94%61 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Full-time89%58 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation71%46 snaps
10Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation69%45 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Rotational48%31 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational48%31 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational46%30 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Rotational38%25 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Rotational29%19 snaps
20Frank GoreRB · Rotational29%19 snaps
18Andre RobertsWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
61Spencer LongC · Situational11%7 snaps
21Jordan PoyerFS · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Dean MarloweDBCorey LiugetDTT.J. YeldonRBIke BoettgerTTy NsekheTTommy SweeneyTEDuke WilliamsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Hodges pass−30% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:34) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 33. 27-T.White pushed ob at PIT 18 for 49 yards (71-M.Feiler).
Q3 1:34 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at BUF 43 · gained nothing · -8.02 EP · −30.0% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 70 yards from the BUF 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.20
Success rate
37%
Yards
490
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.4783%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0348%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.2539%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.2229%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3957%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.460%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 38
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 41
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 18
2nd quarter39 plays
Bills6Steelers0
Bills7Steelers0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 1
Bills7Steelers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Bills 28
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 24 to midfield
Punt4 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 37
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 10
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Bills 18
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bills7Steelers9
Bills7Steelers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Bills 10
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Steelers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 36
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Bills 43
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 9
4th quarter54 plays
Bills10Steelers10
Field goal5 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 8
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 32
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bills16Steelers10
Bills17Steelers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Steelers 14
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Bills 23
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 26
Intercepted7 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Bills 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -1
Closing total
37
Bills moneyline
+101
Steelers moneyline
-112
Steelers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37; the game landed 27 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 28°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Bills 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Mike Tomlin
(9:10) 26-D.Singletary right tackle to PIT 32 for 11 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-28-M.Hilton at PIT 31. 28-M.Hilton to PIT 31 for no gain (76-J.Feliciano).
4th · 3:10PIT +12% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep right to 13-J.Washington pushed ob at BUF 26 for 32 yards (24-T.Johnson).
3rd · 14:53PIT +11% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson to BUF 40 for 29 yards (58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (58-M.Milano), recovered by PIT-14-T.Jones at BUF 38. 14-T.Jones to BUF 38 for no gain (39-L.Wallace).
