2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -4 ✓U 40 ✓11°FPackers closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.

Green Bay Packers 21–13. Biggest swing: Q4 6:40, CHI +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:40CHI — GB CHI ball · 2nd & 4GB 86%

(6:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 29-T.Cohen INTERCEPTED by 94-D.Lowry [55-Z.Smith] at CHI 40. 94-D.Lowry to CHI 33 for 7 yards (69-R.Coward).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:40CHI +11% win prob(6:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 29-T.Cohen INTERCEPTED by 94-D.Lowry [55-Z.Smith] at CHI 40. 94-D.Lowry to CHI 33 for 7 yards (69-R.Coward).
Q1 · 4:53GB +11% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:16CHI +9% win prob(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on GB-12-A.Rodgers, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 31.
Q3 · 14:18GB +8% win prob(14:18) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 38 for 34 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Packers
Offensive plays	82	58
Total yards	415 (edge)	292
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	-0.12	-0.10 (edge)
Success rate	41% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	71%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	10/20 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bears outgained Packers 415–292 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 18	8	18	3:35	Punt
2	GB	GB 30	7	16	2:26	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 25	4	-9	2:04	Punt
4	GB	CHI 35	5	35	2:08	Touchdown
5	CHI	CHI 37	5	5	1:49	Punt
6	GB	GB 25	8	32	3:17	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 15	13	49	7:11	Turnover on downs
8	GB	GB 41	6	23	2:27	Turnover on downs
9	CHI	CHI 36	8	52	3:18	Turnover on downs
10	GB	GB 46	8	23	1:41	Turnover on downs
11	CHI	CHI 41	1	0	0:04	Interception
12	GB	GB 27	7	73	2:16	Touchdown
13	CHI	CHI 25	7	41	2:59	Turnover on downs
14	GB	GB 34	6	66	1:57	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 25	5	8	0:59	Punt
16	GB	GB 25	7	13	3:16	Punt
17	CHI	CHI 16	11	75	3:37	Turnover on downs
18	GB	GB 25	5	5	1:44	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 33	14	67	5:03	Touchdown
20	GB	GB 25	5	7	0:59	Fumble
21	CHI	CHI 40	2	6	0:38	Interception
22	GB	CHI 33	4	-5	2:21	Punt
23	CHI	CHI 5	10	46	2:29	Turnover on downs
24	GB	GB 49	4	4	1:06	Punt
25	CHI	CHI 22	6	57	0:36	Fumble

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -4
Closing total: 40
CHI moneyline: +192
GB moneyline: -218

Packers closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 40; the game landed 34 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 11°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: CHI 10 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.