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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 21, Bears 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:40, 2nd and 4, on D.Lowry — 11.0 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:40 · 2nd and 4
D.Lowry
Packers
(6:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 29-T.Cohen INTERCEPTED by 94-D.Lowry [55-Z.Smith] at CHI 40. 94-D.Lowry to CHI 33 for 7 yards (69-R.Coward).
15°F
Packers closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.
Green Bay Packers 21–13. Biggest swing: Q4 6:40, Packers +11.0% win probability on one snap.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.AdamsPackersQ1 4:53(4:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.6pts
A.RodgersBearsQ2 0:16(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on GB-12-A.Rodgers, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 31.
8.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 20 on third down, against Packers at 5 of 15 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Packers won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Bears173 of 182 plays carry both curves
(6:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 29-T.Cohen INTERCEPTED by 94-D.Lowry [55-Z.Smith] at CHI 40. 94-D.Lowry to CHI 33 for 7 yards (69-R.Coward).
Swing +11.0 for PackersExpected points +5.68 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:40CHI +11% win prob(6:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 29-T.Cohen INTERCEPTED by 94-D.Lowry [55-Z.Smith] at CHI 40. 94-D.Lowry to CHI 33 for 7 yards (69-R.Coward).
1st · 4:53GB +11% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:16CHI +9% win prob(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on GB-12-A.Rodgers, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 31.
3rd · 14:18GB +8% win prob(14:18) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 38 for 34 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
2nd · 5:09CHI +6% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
1st · 14:02GB +5% win prob(14:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 12-A.Robinson ran ob at CHI 31 for 9 yards (23-J.Alexander).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Adams's 29-yard touchdown catch with 4:53 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:53D.Adams·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom A.Rodgersfrom A.RodgersLead never changed again+70–7
2nd1:48E.Pineiro·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–7
Bears ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.10Packers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Bears: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.09Packers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Bears: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.11Packers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 82 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Packers’s 58 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Packers 3.
NoteBears outgained Packers 415-292 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.3% in week 14 against 8.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Packers8.6%
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was GB's sack or hit rate, 8.6% against a season mean of 14.6% — and GB swings 6.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
73Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%84 snaps
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%84 snaps
65Cody WhitehairOG · Every snap100%84 snaps
69Rashaad CowardOT · Every snap100%84 snaps
68James DanielsC · Every snap100%84 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Every snap100%84 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time95%80 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Full-time94%79 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Heavy rotation65%55 snaps
49Jesper HorstedTE · Rotational49%41 snaps
88Riley RidleyWR · Rotational49%41 snaps
81J.P. HoltzTE · Rotational45%38 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Rotational44%37 snaps
32David MontgomeryRB · Rotational43%36 snaps
83Javon WimsWR · Situational10%8 snaps
85Bradley SowellTE · Situational5%4 snaps
62Ted LarsenC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Roy Robertson-HarrisDEAbdullah AndersonDTCorey LevinGDanny TrevathanILBBobby MassieTEric SaubertTETaylor GabrielWR
Tony BrownCBKa'Dar HollmanCBB.J. GoodsonILBYosh NijmanOTDexter WilliamsRBJared VeldheerTRyan GrantWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tim BoyleQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:53 · Packers · 4th & 4 at CHI 29 · gained 29 · +5.11 EP · +11.4% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 16 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
35%
Yards
707
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR69-0.1768%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0971%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.3633%
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5-0.2060%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 36
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bears0Packers6
Bears0Packers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 29
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 43
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 49
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt3 plays
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Packers 41
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Packers 41 to the Bears 36
Bears3Packers7
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Packers 12
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Bears 31
Intercepted1 play
3rd quarter43 plays
Bears3Packers13
Bears3Packers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Bears 21
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 32
Bears3Packers20
Bears3Packers21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Bears 2
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 33
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 38
The period ended11 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Packers 9
4th quarter58 plays
Bears6Packers21
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
Bears12Packers21
Bears13Packers21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Packers 2
Punt6 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 46
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Bears 27
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Packers 49
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Bears 46
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Packers 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
