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2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · State Farm Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland24
BY 14final margin
CardinalsArizona38
Cleveland Browns 24 at Arizona Cardinals 38. Final.
Browns -3 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Arizona Cardinals 38, Browns 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:18, 1st and 10, on P.Peterson — 19.3 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:18 · 1st and 10
P.Peterson
Cardinals
(4:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 13-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson at ARI -3. Touchback.
O 49 ✓
Dome
Browns closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 38–24. Biggest swing: Q1 4:18, Cardinals +19.3% win probability on one snap.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.WilsonBrownsQ2 6:54(6:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-C.Clay INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Wilson at ARI 49. 51-M.Wilson pushed ob at ARI 28 for 21 yards (1-K.Murray).
16.3pts
D.ByrdCardinalsQ2 3:59(3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd pushed ob at CLE 35 for 51 yards (26-G.Williams).
13.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Browns at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 6 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 14 on third down, against Cardinals at 4 of 8 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Browns163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(4:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 13-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson at ARI -3. Touchback.
Swing +19.3 for CardinalsExpected points +5.82 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 19 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:18CLE +19% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 13-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson at ARI -3. Touchback.
2nd · 6:54CLE +16% win prob(6:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-C.Clay INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Wilson at ARI 49. 51-M.Wilson pushed ob at ARI 28 for 21 yards (1-K.Murray).
2nd · 3:59ARI +13% win prob(3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd pushed ob at CLE 35 for 51 yards (26-G.Williams).
1st · 4:59ARI +10% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 18-D.Ratley to ARI 20 for 21 yards (25-C.Jones) [54-C.Marsh Sr.].
2nd · 7:58ARI +9% win prob(7:58) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:16ARI +9% win prob(10:16) 24-N.Chubb left tackle pushed ob at ARI 3 for 29 yards (58-J.Hicks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Drake's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 10:15 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:15K.Drake·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Cardinals ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Browns: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.29Cardinals: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Browns: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.25Cardinals: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Browns: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.31Cardinals: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 59 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Cardinals 6.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 9.8% in week 3.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.6% in week 14 against 60.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −14.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−2.09× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Cardinals4.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 14.1 points below their season mean of 14.1% and 2.1 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-C.Clay INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Wilson at ARI 49. 51-M.Wilson pushed ob at ARI 28 for 21 yards (1-K.Murray).
Q2 6:54 · Cardinals · 2nd & 8 at ARI 40 · gained nothing · -5.81 EP · −14.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 91 yards from the CLE 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
49%
Yards
838
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2081%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.2528%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14+0.4236%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3231%
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR10+0.5440%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.7483%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Browns0Cardinals6
Browns0Cardinals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Browns 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Cardinals 20
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Browns 46
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 17
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Browns0Cardinals13
Browns0Cardinals14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 1
Browns6Cardinals14
Browns7Cardinals14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Cardinals 33
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 40
Browns10Cardinals14
Field goal4 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 20
Browns10Cardinals20
Browns10Cardinals21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Browns 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Browns16Cardinals21
Browns17Cardinals21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Cardinals 2
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 38
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 26
Browns17Cardinals27
Browns17Cardinals28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Browns 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 44
4th quarter52 plays
No good6 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cardinals 27
Browns17Cardinals34
Browns17Cardinals35
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Browns 17
Fumble lost2 plays
Browns17Cardinals38
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 3
Browns23Cardinals38
Browns24Cardinals38
Touchdown23 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Browns 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
