2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium
Denver Broncos
3
Kansas City ChiefsWinner
23
Kansas City Chiefs 23–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:50, KC +5% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 9:50KC +5% win prob(9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 3:46KC +4% win prob(3:46) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 87-N.Fant to KC 9 for 43 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-87-N.Fant was injured during the play.
- Q1 · 10:36KC +3% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 11-D.Robinson to DEN 41 for 13 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- Q1 · 11:42KC +3% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Watkins. PENALTY on DEN-96-S.Harris, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at KC 21 - No Play.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 63 |
| Total yards | 251 | 422 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.4 | 6.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.26 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Success rate | 30% | 49% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 74% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.28 | 0.25 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.22 | -0.09 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/14 | 6/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 | 27 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 26 | 6 | 17 | 3:18 | Punt | |
| 2 | KC | KC 21 | 5 | 64 | 2:00 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 25 | 10 | 18 | 4:57 | Punt | |
| 4 | KC | KC 16 | 12 | 52 | 6:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:09 | Punt | |
| 6 | KC | KC 25 | 10 | 69 | 5:24 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 25 | 12 | 61 | 4:28 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | KC | KC 21 | 10 | 53 | 1:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | KC | KC 25 | 12 | 77 | 5:15 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | DEN | DEN 25 | 6 | 18 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 11 | KC | KC 16 | 4 | 7 | 1:52 | Punt | |
| 12 | DEN | KC 41 | 7 | 20 | 3:51 | Interception | |
| 13 | KC | KC 20 | 7 | 71 | 3:50 | Interception | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 1 | 10 | 61 | 3:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | KC | KC 42 | 4 | 4 | 1:41 | Punt | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 16 | 11 | 51 | 3:08 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | KC | KC 33 | 7 | 25 | 4:47 | End of game |
0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 77 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- KC -10
- Closing total
- 43
- DEN moneyline
- +352
- KC moneyline
- -426
Chiefs closed -10 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 43; the game landed 26 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- 24°F, wind 8 mph
- Referee
- Clete Blakeman
- Rest
- DEN 7 days · KC 7 days
- Coaches
- Vic Fangio vs Andy Reid
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.