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Kansas City Chiefs 23, Broncos 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:50, 1st and 10, on T.Hill — 4.6 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:50 · 1st and 10
T.Hill
Chiefs
(9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4.6
26°F
Chiefs closed -10 and covered, winning by 20.
Kansas City Chiefs 23–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:50, Chiefs +4.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.RobinsonChiefsQ1 10:36(10:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 11-D.Robinson to DEN 41 for 13 yards (31-J.Simmons).
3.1pts
N.FantBroncosQ2 3:46(3:46) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 87-N.Fant to KC 9 for 43 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-87-N.Fant was injured during the play.
3.5pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Broncos at 5 of 14 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Broncos150 of 157 plays carry both curves
(9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +4.6 for ChiefsExpected points +3.43 for ChiefsThe model had Broncos 20 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:50KC +5% win prob(9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:46KC +4% win prob(3:46) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 87-N.Fant to KC 9 for 43 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-87-N.Fant was injured during the play.
1st · 10:36KC +3% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 11-D.Robinson to DEN 41 for 13 yards (31-J.Simmons).
1st · 11:42KC +3% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Watkins. PENALTY on DEN-96-S.Harris, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at KC 21 - No Play.
2nd · 2:58DEN +2% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 28-R.Freeman up the middle to KC 14 for -5 yards (52-D.Harris).
2nd · 13:02DEN +2% win prob(13:02) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Hill's 41-yard touchdown catch with 9:50 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:50T.Hill·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom P.Mahomesfrom P.Mahomes · two-point no goodLead never changed again+60–6
2nd13:02H.Butker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+30–9
2nd6:27H.Butker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+30–12
2nd2:00B.McManus·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+33–12
2nd0:02H.Butker·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+33–15
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Broncos: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Broncos: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.25Chiefs: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Broncos: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.09Chiefs: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 57 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 23.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs23.8%
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.0%, 12.6 points above their season mean of 52.4% and 1.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:50 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at DEN 41 · gained 41 · +3.43 EP · +8.9% win probability
148 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 79 yards from the KC 16 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
672
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.4479%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0778%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.1867%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3357%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.2411%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 43
Broncos0Chiefs6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Broncos 41
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 48
The period ended12 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Broncos 23
2nd quarter48 plays
Broncos0Chiefs9
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Broncos 5
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
Broncos0Chiefs12
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 6
Broncos3Chiefs12
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 9
Broncos3Chiefs15
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Broncos 21
3rd quarter36 plays
Broncos3Chiefs21
Broncos3Chiefs23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 5
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 43
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 23
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Chiefs 11
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Broncos 43
4th quarter36 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Broncos 9
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Broncos 1 to the Chiefs 38
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 46
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Chiefs 33
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Broncos 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
