2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Nissan Stadium
Houston TexansWinner
24
Tennessee Titans
21
Houston Texans 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 11:01, HOU +25% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-A.Firkser INTERCEPTED by 59-W.Mercilus (20-J.Reid) at HOU 2. 59-W.Mercilus pushed ob at TEN 12 for 86 yards (81-J.Smith).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 11:01HOU +25% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-A.Firkser INTERCEPTED by 59-W.Mercilus (20-J.Reid) at HOU 2. 59-W.Mercilus pushed ob at TEN 12 for 86 yards (81-J.Smith).
- Q3 · 0:46HOU +15% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Brown (98-J.Simmons) at TEN -4. Touchback.
- Q4 · 15:00TEN +14% win prob(15:00) 81-J.Smith right end pushed ob at HOU 16 for 57 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-20-J.Reid was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- Q2 · 10:04TEN +12% win prob(10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-26-L.Ryan, Defensive Holding, declined.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 65 |
| Total yards | 374 | 433 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.9 | 6.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.12 (edge) | 0.10 |
| Success rate | 44% | 45% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 51% | 60% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.21 (edge) | 0.06 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.04 | 0.16 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/10 (edge) | 4/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 26 | 11 | 54 | 5:32 | Interception | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 1 | 7 | 67 | 2:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 23 | 6 | 17 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 16 | 4 | 4 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 28 | 4 | 1 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 24 | 11 | 76 | 5:59 | Interception | |
| 7 | HOU | TEN 12 | 3 | 12 | 0:47 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 4 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 28 | 10 | 57 | 4:35 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 18 | 10 | 45 | 2:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 37 | 6 | 15 | 1:07 | Punt | |
| 12 | TEN | TEN 10 | 1 | 0 | 0:01 | End of half | |
| 13 | TEN | TEN 24 | 17 | 81 | 9:26 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 36 | 9 | 60 | 4:55 | Interception | |
| 15 | TEN | TEN 20 | 7 | 73 | 2:04 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 25 | 9 | 70 | 3:01 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | TEN | TEN 25 | 6 | 16 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 9 | 12 | 85 | 5:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | TEN | TEN 25 | 9 | 75 | 1:22 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | HOU | TEN 42 | 5 | 3 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 21 | TEN | TEN 12 | 2 | -8 | 0:17 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- TEN -3
- Closing total
- 50
- HOU moneyline
- +148
- TEN moneyline
- -165
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50; the game landed 45 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 45°F, wind 4 mph
- Referee
- Bill Vinovich
- Rest
- HOU 7 days · TEN 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill O'Brien vs Mike Vrabel
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.