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Houston Texans 24, Titans 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 11:01, 1st and 5, on W.Mercilus — 24.9 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:01 · 1st and 5
W.Mercilus
Texans
(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-A.Firkser INTERCEPTED by 59-W.Mercilus (20-J.Reid) at HOU 2. 59-W.Mercilus pushed ob at TEN 12 for 86 yards (81-J.Smith).
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 11:01, Texans +24.9% win probability on one snap.
24.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.BrownTitansQ3 0:46(:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Brown (98-J.Simmons) at TEN -4. Touchback.
14.8pts
J.SmithTitansQ4 15:00(15:00) 81-J.Smith right end pushed ob at HOU 16 for 57 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-20-J.Reid was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
13.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Texans won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Titans at 4 of 10 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Texans at +0.04 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Texans162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-A.Firkser INTERCEPTED by 59-W.Mercilus (20-J.Reid) at HOU 2. 59-W.Mercilus pushed ob at TEN 12 for 86 yards (81-J.Smith).
Swing −24.9 for TitansExpected points −10.72 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 48
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:01HOU +25% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-A.Firkser INTERCEPTED by 59-W.Mercilus (20-J.Reid) at HOU 2. 59-W.Mercilus pushed ob at TEN 12 for 86 yards (81-J.Smith).
3rd · 0:46HOU +15% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Brown (98-J.Simmons) at TEN -4. Touchback.
4th · 15:00TEN +14% win prob(15:00) 81-J.Smith right end pushed ob at HOU 16 for 57 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-20-J.Reid was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
2nd · 10:04TEN +12% win prob(10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-26-L.Ryan, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 10:41TEN +12% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:54TEN +10% win prob(8:54) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at HOU 37 for 60 yards (24-J.Joseph) [92-B.Dunn].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Hyde's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 10:41 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Titans ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Texans: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.10Titans: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Texans: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.06Titans: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Texans: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.16Titans: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 63 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Titans’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Titans 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.4% in week 14 against 45.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Titans3.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 9.1 points below their season mean of 12.2% and 1.7 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−30% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-A.Firkser INTERCEPTED by 59-W.Mercilus (20-J.Reid) at HOU 2. 59-W.Mercilus pushed ob at TEN 12 for 86 yards (81-J.Smith).
Q2 11:01 · Titans · 1st & goal at HOU 5 · gained nothing · -10.72 EP · −30.2% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 85 yards from the HOU 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
806
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1349%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0376%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.1139%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.3644%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.5414%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Titans 20
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
No good8 plays, from the Titans 1 to the Texans 27
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 40
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 20
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 43
2nd quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Texans 5
Texans6Titans0
Texans7Titans0
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Texans13Titans0
Texans14Titans0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Titans 16
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Texans 37
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Titans 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter29 plays
Texans14Titans6
Texans14Titans7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Texans 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Titans 4
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter56 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.2 seconds
Texans14Titans13
Texans14Titans14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Texans 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans20Titans14
Texans21Titans14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 10
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 43
Texans24Titans14
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Titans 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Texans24Titans20
Texans24Titans21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 11
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Titans 39
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -3
Closing total
50
Texans moneyline
+148
Titans moneyline
-165
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50; the game landed 45 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 46°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Texans 7 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Mike Vrabel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 11:06TEN +10% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to TEN 15 for 12 yards (24-K.Vaccaro). PENALTY on TEN-35-T.Brock, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 15.
1st · 9:35HOU +10% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left intended for 25-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 24-K.Vaccaro at TEN -1. 24-K.Vaccaro ran ob at TEN 1 for 2 yards.
Texanscategory by categoryTitans
Texans6
Titans0
