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Indianapolis Colts 7 at New Orleans Saints 34. Final.
Saints -8 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
New Orleans Saints 34, Colts 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:27, 3rd and 5, on Z.Pascal — 4.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:27 · 3rd and 5
Z.Pascal
Colts
(5:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal to NO 41 for 7 yards (25-E.Apple). Pass 5, YAC 2
Dome
Saints closed -8 and covered, winning by 27.
New Orleans Saints 34–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:27, Colts +4.0% win probability on one snap.
4.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.MackSaintsQ1 12:51(12:51) 25-M.Mack left tackle to IND 45 for -3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
3.0pts
J.CookSaintsQ2 14:12(14:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 87-J.Cook to IND 15 for 18 yards (29-M.Hooker, 34-R.Ya-Sin). Pass 12, YAC 6
3.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.72 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 5 of 8 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 12 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Saints at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Colts151 of 163 plays carry both curves
(5:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal to NO 41 for 7 yards (25-E.Apple). Pass 5, YAC 2
Swing −4.0 for SaintsExpected points −1.86 for SaintsThe model had Colts 17 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:27NO +4% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal to NO 41 for 7 yards (25-E.Apple). Pass 5, YAC 2
2nd · 14:12NO +4% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 87-J.Cook to IND 15 for 18 yards (29-M.Hooker, 34-R.Ya-Sin). Pass 12, YAC 6
1st · 12:51IND +3% win prob(12:51) 25-M.Mack left tackle to IND 45 for -3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
1st · 14:18NO +3% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to IND 28 for 7 yards (94-C.Jordan).
1st · 4:02IND +3% win prob(4:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 29 yards to NO 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.
1st · 4:06IND +2% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 84-J.Doyle (56-D.Davis) [90-M.Brown].
1st · 3:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
W.Lutz's 33-yard field goal with 7:32 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:32W.Lutz·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+30–3
Saints ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Colts: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.26Saints: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Colts: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.72Saints: +0.72 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Colts: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.20Saints: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 52 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Saints’s 60 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Colts 1, Saints 6.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's early-down pass rate, 50.0%, is past their previous low of 52.6% in week 3 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints19.4%
inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 6.2 points below their season mean of 12.8% and 1.4 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Patrick RobinsonCBNoah SpenceDEVonn BellFSKiko AlonsoOLBEthan GreenidgeTAndrus PeatTMichael OlaT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Johnson BademosiCBT.Y. McGillDT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett pass+6% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal to NO 41 for 7 yards (25-E.Apple). Pass 5, YAC 2
Q1 5:27 · Colts · 3rd & 5 at NO 48 · gained 7 · +1.86 EP · +5.8% win probability
149 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 90 yards from the NO 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
629
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2171%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.1867%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2030%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR9+0.030%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.2050%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.73100%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+0.6760%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Colts 49
Colts0Saints3
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 15
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Saints 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Colts 43
2nd quarter50 plays
Colts0Saints9
Colts0Saints10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Colts 15
Punt5 plays
Colts0Saints16
Colts0Saints17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Colts 21
Punt11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 47
Colts0Saints20
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Colts 5
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter34 plays
Colts0Saints26
Colts0Saints27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Colts 5
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Saints 46
Colts0Saints33
Colts0Saints34
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Colts 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 26
4th quarter41 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 34
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Saints 41
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Colts 42
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Saints 40
Colts6Saints34
Colts7Saints34
Touchdown15 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Saints 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
