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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum
Final
JaguarsJacksonville20
BY 4final margin
RaidersOakland16
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at Oakland Raiders 16. Final.
Raiders -7 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Raiders 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:34, 3rd and 4, on C.Conley — 27.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:34 · 3rd and 4
C.Conley
Jaguars
(:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
27.0
U 47 ✓
Raiders closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:34, Jaguars +27.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.ConleyJaguarsQ4 0:54(:54) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley pushed ob at LV 17 for 21 yards (29-L.Joyner).
14.1pts
D.CarrRaidersQ4 0:02(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right (36-R.Harrison).
20.8pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 41.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 91 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Jaguars165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −27.0 for RaidersExpected points −3.02 for RaidersThe model had Jaguars 5 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:34OAK +27% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:02JAX +21% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right (36-R.Harrison).
4th · 0:54OAK +14% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley pushed ob at LV 17 for 21 yards (29-L.Joyner).
4th · 1:48JAX +14% win prob(1:48) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4th · 1:01OAK +10% win prob(1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 27-L.Fournette pushed ob at LV 38 for 11 yards (27-T.Mullen).
4th · 0:18OAK +9% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Waller. PENALTY on JAX-36-R.Harrison, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LV 17 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Conley's 4-yard touchdown catch with 0:34 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was JAX's sack or hit rate, 12.5% against a season mean of 18.1% — and JAX swings 6.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew II+25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:34 · Jaguars · 3rd & goal at LV 4 · gained 4 · +3.02 EP · +24.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 79 yards from the JAX 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0563%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.2071%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0441%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1133%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.3764%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10+0.3090%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0657%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Jaguars0Raiders6
Jaguars0Raiders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Jaguars 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Jaguars3Raiders7
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Raiders 10
Jaguars3Raiders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Jaguars 15
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 45
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Jaguars 31
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 4 to the Jaguars 6
Jaguars3Raiders13
Field goal10 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 12
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 39
Jaguars3Raiders16
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Jaguars 9
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Jaguars 49
Jaguars6Raiders16
Field goal16 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Raiders 13
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 46
Jaguars12Raiders16
Jaguars13Raiders16
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Raiders 6
No good15 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Jaguars 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Jaguars19Raiders16
Jaguars20Raiders16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Raiders 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Jaguars 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
