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Dallas Cowboys 44, Rams 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 11:49, 2nd and 9, on T.Austin — 17.3 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:49 · 2nd and 9
T.Austin
Cowboys
(11:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.3
Dome
Rams closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 44–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:49, Cowboys +17.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.WittenCowboysQ1 1:53(1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.7pts
S.LeeCowboysQ2 1:33(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Lee at LA 34. 50-S.Lee to LA 9 for 25 yards (34-M.Brown).
7.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Rams at 2 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Rams179 of 186 plays carry both curves
(11:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +17.3 for CowboysExpected points +5.20 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 13 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:49DAL +17% win prob(11:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:53DAL +9% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:33LA +8% win prob(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Lee at LA 34. 50-S.Lee to LA 9 for 25 yards (34-M.Brown).
2nd · 15:00DAL +8% win prob(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to DAL 7 for 26 yards (54-J.Smith).
2nd · 10:06DAL +6% win prob(10:06) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to DAL 3, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-M.Thomas.
1st · 0:13DAL +6% win prob(:13) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 83-J.Reynolds to DAL 33 for 28 yards (25-X.Woods).
1st · 5:01
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Austin's 59-yard touchdown catch with 11:49 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Cowboys ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Rams: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.31Cowboys: +0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.27Cowboys: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Rams: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.34Cowboys: +0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 69 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 67 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 41.2% in week 7.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 14.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's early-down pass rate, 77.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 14.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points.
LA's sack or hit rate, 4.0%, is past their previous low of 7.7% in week 2 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 14.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Cowboys10.9%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.0%, 21.2 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 1.7 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%74 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%74 snaps
71Bobby EvansT · Every snap100%74 snaps
73David EdwardsT · Every snap100%74 snaps
63Austin CorbettT · Every snap100%74 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Every snap100%74 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
30Todd GurleyRB · Full-time96%71 snaps
18Cooper KuppWR · Full-time92%68 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time85%63 snaps
12Brandin CooksWR · Heavy rotation72%53 snaps
83Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational36%27 snaps
82Johnny MundtTE · Situational15%11 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
David LongCBDonte' DeayonCBJake GervaseDBJamil DembyGRob HavensteinTGerald EverettTEKendall BlantonTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:49 · Cowboys · 2nd & 9 at DAL 41 · gained 59 · +5.20 EP · +14.2% win probability
177 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 97 yards from the DAL 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
49%
Yards
766
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64-0.1881%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2746%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.4531%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.1318%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter50 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Cowboys 41
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Cowboys 31
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 49
Rams0Cowboys6
Rams0Cowboys7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Rams 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 39
2nd quarter44 plays
Rams6Cowboys7
Rams7Cowboys7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Cowboys 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Rams7Cowboys13
Rams7Cowboys14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 41
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Rams7Cowboys20
Rams7Cowboys21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 3 to the Rams 1
Intercepted4 plays
Rams7Cowboys27
Rams7Cowboys28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Rams7Cowboys31
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Rams 32
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 27
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 37
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Cowboys 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Rams 21
4th quarter55 plays
Rams7Cowboys34
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Rams7Cowboys37
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Rams 23
Rams13Cowboys37
Rams15Cowboys37
Touchdown17 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 7
Rams15Cowboys43
Rams15Cowboys44
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Rams 44
Rams21Cowboys44
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Cowboys 7
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
