For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
New York Giants 36, Dolphins 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:21, 3rd and 1, on J.Baker — 16.6 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:21 · 3rd and 1
J.Baker
Dolphins
(10:21) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 12-C.Latimer INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at MIA 15. 55-J.Baker pushed ob at MIA 49 for 34 yards (76-N.Solder).
19.8 mph wind
Giants closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 16.
New York Giants 36–20. Biggest swing: Q3 10:21, Dolphins +16.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.ParkerDolphinsQ2 9:08(9:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Parker for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence II].
12.1pts
G.TateGiantsQ2 8:12(8:12) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 15-G.Tate for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-40-N.Needham, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
13.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Giants won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Giants won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 13 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Dolphins173 of 186 plays carry both curves
(10:21) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 12-C.Latimer INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at MIA 15. 55-J.Baker pushed ob at MIA 49 for 34 yards (76-N.Solder).
Swing −16.6 for GiantsExpected points −6.83 for GiantsModel and market agree here.play 104
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:21MIA +17% win prob(10:21) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 12-C.Latimer INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at MIA 15. 55-J.Baker pushed ob at MIA 49 for 34 yards (76-N.Solder).
2nd · 8:12NYG +14% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 15-G.Tate for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-40-N.Needham, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 9:08NYG +12% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Parker for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence II].
1st · 2:24MIA +12% win prob(2:24) 42-P.Laird right guard to NYG 13 for -3 yards (24-J.Love, 94-D.Tomlinson).
3rd · 11:44MIA +9% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles left end to MIA 30 for 5 yards (99-L.Williams, 47-A.Ogletree). FUMBLES (99-L.Williams), RECOVERED by NYG-36-S.Chandler at MIA 33. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 6:24MIA +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Slayton's 5-yard touchdown catch with 11:59 left in the 3rd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Giants ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.06Giants: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Dolphins: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.06Giants: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Dolphins: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.07Giants: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 69 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Giants’s 63 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Giants 5.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Giants20.8%
leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 42.3%, 18.1 points below their season mean of 60.4% and 2.0 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
—Julién DavenportT · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%71 snaps
67Daniel KilgoreC · Every snap100%71 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time94%67 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Full-time80%57 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation77%55 snaps
63Michael DeiterOG · Heavy rotation75%53 snaps
62Shaq CalhounG · Heavy rotation73%52 snaps
68Evan BrownC · Heavy rotation52%37 snaps
42Patrick LairdRB · Rotational48%34 snaps
37Myles GaskinRB · Rotational48%34 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Rotational46%33 snaps
84Isaiah FordWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational32%23 snaps
87Clive WalfordTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
61J'Marcus WebbT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Walt AikensCBTae HayesDBCharles HarrisDEChandler CoxFBKeaton SutherlandGAdam PankeyGEvan BoehmG
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Sam EguavoenLBJosh RosenQBJulie'n DavenportT
New York Giants
46 dressed · 6 inactive
74Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%67 snaps
71Will HernandezG · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Nick GatesG · Every snap100%67 snaps
82Kaden SmithTE · Every snap100%67 snaps
10Eli ManningQB · Full-time97%65 snaps
76Nate SolderT · Full-time96%64 snaps
75Jon HalapioC · Full-time96%64 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
87Sterling ShepardWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Heavy rotation70%47 snaps
15Golden TateWR · Heavy rotation57%38 snaps
83Scott SimonsonTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
12Cody LatimerWR · Situational22%15 snaps
37Javorius AllenRB · Situational21%14 snaps
39Elijhaa PennyRB · Situational12%8 snaps
18Da'Mari ScottWR · Situational12%8 snaps
77Spencer PulleyC · Situational12%8 snaps
17Cody CoreWR · Situational4%3 snaps
79Eric SmithOT · Situational4%3 snaps
3Alex TanneyQB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Chad SladeGKevin ZeitlerGDaniel JonesQBWayne GallmanRBEvan EngramTERhett EllisonTE
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Manning pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:21) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 12-C.Latimer INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at MIA 15. 55-J.Baker pushed ob at MIA 49 for 34 yards (76-N.Solder).
Q3 10:21 · Giants · 3rd & 1 at MIA 24 · gained nothing · -6.83 EP · −17.2% win probability
171 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 89 yards from the MIA 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
796
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0369%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1861%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2928%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.2353%
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
No good11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Giants 31
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 39 to midfield
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Giants 10
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Dolphins 46
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt2 plays
Dolphins6Giants0
Dolphins7Giants0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Giants 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Dolphins7Giants6
Dolphins7Giants7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 49
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Giants 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Giants 1 to the Giants 41
Dolphins10Giants7
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Giants 6
Intercepted7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 45
3rd quarter47 plays
Dolphins10Giants13
Dolphins10Giants14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Dolphins 5
Fumble lost4 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 24
Dolphins13Giants14
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Giants 29
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 42
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins13Giants16
Dolphins13Giants22
Dolphins13Giants23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Dolphins 17
4th quarter50 plays
Dolphins13Giants29
Dolphins13Giants30
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Giants 34
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 38
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 46
Dolphins13Giants36
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Dolphins 1
Dolphins19Giants36
Dolphins20Giants36
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Giants 29
Punt8 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
