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Minnesota Vikings 39 at Los Angeles Chargers 10. Final.
Vikings -1 ✓O 45 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Minnesota Vikings 39, Chargers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:23, 2nd and 2, on P.Rivers — 36.0 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:23 · 2nd and 2
P.Rivers
Vikings
(:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at MIN 36 for -10 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 38, RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at MIN 44. 95-I.Odenigbo for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.4 mph wind
Vikings closed -1 and covered, winning by 29.
Minnesota Vikings 39–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:23, Vikings +36.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 25.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.GordonVikingsQ1 1:34(1:34) 25-M.Gordon right end to LAC 11 for no gain (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at LAC 11. 22-H.Smith to LAC 11 for no gain (25-M.Gordon).
12.9pts
M.IngramChargersQ2 1:02(1:02) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 31-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 54-M.Ingram at LAC 34. 54-M.Ingram to LAC 43 for 9 yards (65-P.Elflein; 56-G.Bradbury).
19.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 7 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.54 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Vikings157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at MIN 36 for -10 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 38, RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at MIN 44. 95-I.Odenigbo for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −36.0 for ChargersExpected points −10.02 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 14 points higher than the market did.play 83
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:23MIN +36% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at MIN 36 for -10 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 38, RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at MIN 44. 95-I.Odenigbo for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:02MIN +20% win prob(1:02) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 31-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 54-M.Ingram at LAC 34. 54-M.Ingram to LAC 43 for 9 yards (65-P.Elflein; 56-G.Bradbury).
1st · 1:34MIN +13% win prob(1:34) 25-M.Gordon right end to LAC 11 for no gain (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at LAC 11. 22-H.Smith to LAC 11 for no gain (25-M.Gordon).
1st · 6:54LAC +10% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to MIN 29 for 39 yards (21-M.Hughes) [91-S.Weatherly].
2nd · 2:06MIN +8% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at LAC 49. 22-H.Smith to LAC 49 for no gain (16-A.Patton).
2nd · 6:55LAC +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Bailey's 44-yard field goal with 4:22 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:18I.Smith·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom K.Cousinsfrom K.Cousins · kick no good, hit right upright+66–0
1st4:40M.Badgley·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+36–3
2nd15:00D.Bailey·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+39–3
Vikings ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Vikings: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.45Chargers: −0.45 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Vikings: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.41Chargers: −0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.54Chargers: −0.54 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 59 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Chargers’s 61 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 6, Chargers 2.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Chargers4.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.0%, 8.2 points below their season mean of 12.2% and 1.0 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers sacked−41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at MIN 36 for -10 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 38, RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at MIN 44. 95-I.Odenigbo for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:23 · Chargers · 2nd & 2 at MIN 26 · lost 12 · -10.02 EP · −40.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 85 yards from the MIN 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
41%
Yards
689
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.3579%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.2563%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15+0.3933%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14+0.2021%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.2160%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1444%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Vikings6Chargers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Chargers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Vikings6Chargers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Vikings 23
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 49
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chargers 11
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 7
2nd quarter48 plays
Vikings9Chargers3
Field goal1 play
Vikings9Chargers9
Vikings9Chargers10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Vikings 2
Vikings12Chargers10
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Chargers 26
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 36
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Chargers 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Vikings18Chargers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Vikings 26
Vikings19Chargers10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Vikings22Chargers10
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 19
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
Vikings25Chargers10
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Chargers 9
The period ended15 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Vikings 7
4th quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
Vikings31Chargers10
Vikings32Chargers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Chargers 8
Fumble lost2 plays
Vikings38Chargers10
Vikings39Chargers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 2
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Vikings 46
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 39
Drive ended5 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 42
The period ended2 plays
Intercepted1 play
The period ended1 play
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -1
Closing total
45
Vikings moneyline
-118
Chargers moneyline
+107
Vikings closed -1 and covered, winning by 29.
Total closed 45; the game landed 49 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
StubHub Center
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 59°F at kickoff; a real wind at 25 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Anthony Lynn
NoteWind at 25.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
(6:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to LAC 45 for 13 yards (31-A.Phillips).
3rd · 15:00MIN +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 25-M.Gordon to LAC 31 for 6 yards (93-S.Stephen). FUMBLES (93-S.Stephen), RECOVERED by MIN-99-D.Hunter at LAC 30. 99-D.Hunter to LAC 26 for 4 yards (86-H.Henry).
1st · 9:23LAC +7% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 82-K.Rudolph. PENALTY on LAC-43-M.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 16 - No Play.
Vikingscategory by categoryChargers
Vikings6
Chargers0
