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2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
PatriotsNew England34
BY 21final margin
BengalsCincinnati13
New England Patriots 34 at Cincinnati Bengals 13. Final.
Patriots -10.5 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
New England Patriots 34, Bengals 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:45, 4th and 16 — 14.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:45 · 4th and 16
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at CIN 23.
Patriots closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 21.
New England Patriots 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:45, Patriots +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.WhitePatriotsQ1 11:52(11:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.4pts
J.MixonPatriotsQ2 7:14(7:14) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to NE 30 for no gain (71-D.Shelton; 51-J.Bentley).
7.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 4 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.08 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Patriots164 of 177 plays carry both curves
(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at CIN 23.
Swing −14.5 for BengalsExpected points −4.08 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 30 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:45CIN +15% win prob(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at CIN 23.
1st · 11:52CIN +7% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:14NE +7% win prob(7:14) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to NE 30 for no gain (71-D.Shelton; 51-J.Bentley).
2nd · 0:54NE +7% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at CIN 28 for -7 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
3rd · 7:32NE +7% win prob(7:32) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 36. 24-S.Gilmore for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00CIN +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 15-N.Harry to NE 35 for 8 yards (59-N.Vigil).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
N.Folk's 46-yard field goal with 0:10 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Bengals, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Patriots: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.24Bengals: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Patriots: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.40Bengals: −0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Patriots: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.07Bengals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 61 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Bengals’s 62 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Bengals 2.
NoteBengals outgained Patriots 316-293 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, −14.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bengals22.6%
inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.3 pts, 13.1 points below their season mean of -1.2 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%65 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Every snap100%65 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%65 snaps
76Isaiah WynnT · Every snap100%65 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Full-time86%56 snaps
14Mohamed SanuWR · Full-time86%56 snaps
83Matt LaCosseTE · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
11Julian EdelmanWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
15N'Keal HarryWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
84Benjamin WatsonTE · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Rotational42%27 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Rotational38%25 snaps
34Rex BurkheadRB · Rotational31%20 snaps
52Elandon RobertsMLB · Situational15%10 snaps
66James FerentzC · Situational14%9 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Situational14%9 snaps
72Marshall NewhouseT · Situational11%7 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Situational11%7 snaps
18Matthew SlaterWR · Situational3%2 snaps
38Brandon BoldenRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jason McCourtyCBByron CowartDECody KesslerQBDamien HarrisRBJermaine EluemunorTKorey CunninghamTRyan IzzoTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Bailey punts+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at CIN 23.
Q2 1:45 · Patriots · 4th & 16 at NE 34 · gained nothing · +4.08 EP · +21.3% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
606
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR34-0.1424%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1561%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.93100%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3029%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.1329%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR7-0.220%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.8080%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Patriots6Bengals0
Patriots7Bengals0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bengals 23
Patriots7Bengals6
Patriots7Bengals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Patriots 8
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 22
Patriots7Bengals10
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Patriots 15
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Bengals 35
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Patriots 30
Patriots10Bengals10
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Bengals 22
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 41
Patriots13Bengals10
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Patriots19Bengals10
Patriots20Bengals10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 7
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Patriots26Bengals10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Patriots 36
Patriots27Bengals10
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 33
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 33
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Patriots 37
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 30
Patriots27Bengals13
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Patriots 25
Patriots33Bengals13
Patriots34Bengals13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 33
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 35
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 49
The period ended10 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Bengals 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -10.5
Closing total
42
Patriots moneyline
-468
Bengals moneyline
+381
Patriots closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 42; the game landed 47 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 35°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Zac Taylor
3rd · 14:21
NE +7% win prob
(14:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at CIN 43. 24-S.Gilmore to CIN 43 for no gain (83-T.Boyd).
2nd · 0:10CIN +6% win prob(:10) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
