2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
New England PatriotsWinner
34
Cincinnati Bengals
13
New England Patriots 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:45, CIN +15% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at CIN 23.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 1:45CIN +15% win prob(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at CIN 23.
- Q1 · 11:52CIN +7% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 7:14NE +7% win prob(7:14) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to NE 30 for no gain (71-D.Shelton; 51-J.Bentley).
- Q2 · 0:54NE +7% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at CIN 28 for -7 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 61 | 62 |
| Total yards | 293 | 316 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.8 | 5.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.04 (edge) | -0.24 |
| Success rate | 41% | 42% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 51% | 50% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.08 (edge) | -0.40 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.17 (edge) | -0.07 |
| Third downs | 6/14 (edge) | 4/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 4 |
Bengals outgained Patriots 316–293 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | NE 25 | 10 | 75 | 3:16 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | CIN | CIN 25 | 11 | 75 | 5:31 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | NE | NE 20 | 5 | 2 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 4 | CIN | CIN 35 | 9 | 54 | 5:02 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | NE | NE 25 | 12 | 45 | 3:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | CIN | CIN 35 | 7 | 30 | 4:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | NE | NE 31 | 8 | 42 | 3:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | CIN | CIN 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:46 | Punt | |
| 9 | NE | NE 40 | 4 | -6 | 0:35 | Punt | |
| 10 | NE | CIN 23 | 4 | -5 | 1:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | CIN | CIN 40 | 2 | 0 | 0:05 | End of half | |
| 12 | CIN | CIN 25 | 4 | 4 | 0:44 | Interception | |
| 13 | NE | CIN 43 | 8 | 43 | 2:59 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | CIN | CIN 12 | 7 | 52 | 3:56 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 15 | CIN | CIN 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 16 | NE | NE 24 | 4 | 8 | 1:53 | Punt | |
| 17 | CIN | CIN 28 | 6 | 35 | 3:38 | Interception | |
| 18 | NE | NE 10 | 6 | 20 | 3:12 | Punt | |
| 19 | CIN | CIN 29 | 13 | 46 | 5:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | NE | CIN 40 | 4 | 35 | 1:02 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | CIN | CIN 23 | 5 | 0 | 0:29 | Punt | |
| 22 | NE | NE 28 | 4 | 7 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 23 | CIN | CIN 20 | 2 | 9 | 0:23 | Interception | |
| 24 | NE | NE 26 | 8 | 27 | 3:43 | End of game |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -10.5
- Closing total
- 42
- NE moneyline
- -468
- CIN moneyline
- +381
Patriots closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 42; the game landed 47 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Paul Brown Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 36°F, wind 6 mph
- Referee
- Alex Kemp
- Rest
- NE 7 days · CIN 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill Belichick vs Zac Taylor