For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 12, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
JetsNew York21
BY 21final margin
RavensBaltimore42
New York Jets 21 at Baltimore Ravens 42. Final.
Ravens -17 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Baltimore Ravens 42, Jets 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:36, 4th and 5 — 4.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:36 · 4th and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Ravens
(13:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.
30°F
Ravens closed -17 and covered, winning by 21.
Baltimore Ravens 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:36, Ravens +4.2% win probability on one snap.
4.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.DarnoldRavensQ1 13:43(13:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 17-V.Smith [53-J.Ward].
1.9pts
L.JacksonJetsQ1 10:43(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end ran ob at NYJ 23 for 2 yards (27-D.Roberts).
1.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.68 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.41 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Jets159 of 167 plays carry both curves
(13:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.
Swing +4.2 for RavensExpected points −0.28 for RavensThe model had Jets 31 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:36NYJ +4% win prob(13:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.
1st · 13:43NYJ +2% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 17-V.Smith [53-J.Ward].
1st · 10:43NYJ +2% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end ran ob at NYJ 23 for 2 yards (27-D.Roberts).
1st · 15:00BAL +2% win prob9-J.Tucker kicks 68 yards from BAL 35 to NYJ -3. 88-T.Montgomery to NYJ 31 for 34 yards (16-D.Thomas).
1st · 9:25BAL +2% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram II left guard to NYJ 11 for 5 yards (20-M.Maye).
2nd · 11:05BAL +1% win prob(11:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 15-M.Brown [96-H.Anderson]. PENALTY on NYJ-46-N.Hewitt, Defensive Pass Interference, 43 yards, enforced at NYJ 44 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Ingram II's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 7:55 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:55M.Ingram II·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Jets: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.41Ravens: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.68Ravens: +0.68 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Jets: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.19Ravens: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Ravens’s 59 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Ravens 7.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.7% in week 14 against 11.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Ravens17.1%
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was BAL's pass rate over expected, -2.8 pts against a season mean of -7.7 pts — and BAL swings 6.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
72Brandon ShellT · Every snap100%59 snaps
71Alex LewisG · Every snap100%59 snaps
77Tom ComptonG · Every snap100%59 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Every snap100%59 snaps
78Jonotthan HarrisonC · Every snap100%59 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%59 snaps
26Le'Veon BellRB · Full-time86%51 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Full-time85%50 snaps
17Vyncint SmithWR · Heavy rotation63%37 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Rotational49%29 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Rotational49%29 snaps
16Jeff SmithWR · Situational24%14 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational20%12 snaps
69Conor McDermottT · Situational15%9 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Arthur MauletCBBrian PooleCBQuinnen WilliamsNTBilal PowellRBJamal AdamsSSChuma EdogaTDemaryius ThomasWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Leo KoloamatangiCDavid FalesQBJosh AdamsRBBlake CountessSS
Baltimore Ravens
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Patrick MekariT · Every snap100%62 snaps
74James HurstG · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%62 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Full-time85%53 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Full-time85%53 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
15Marquise BrownWR · Heavy rotation74%46 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation65%40 snaps
11Seth RobertsWR · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
21Mark IngramRB · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational37%23 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Rotational31%19 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational31%19 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational29%18 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational29%18 snaps
70Parker EhingerG · Situational18%11 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational16%10 snaps
3Robert Griffin IIIQB · Situational15%9 snaps
Inactive · 7
Anthony AverettCBJustin EllisDTBen PowersGChris BoardLBTrace McSorleyQBRonnie StanleyTJaleel ScottWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Hroniss GrasuC
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McDermott reported+7% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:32) (Shotgun) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:32 · Jets · 3rd & goal at BAL 4 · gained 4 · +2.49 EP · +7.0% win probability
158 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 84 yards from the BAL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.3767%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.3932%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.8177%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.1144%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.230%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2414%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 36
Jets0Ravens6
Jets0Ravens7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Jets 6
No good8 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Ravens 31
Jets0Ravens13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Jets 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 49
2nd quarter44 plays
Jets6Ravens13
Jets7Ravens13
Touchdown5 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 4
Jets7Ravens19
Jets7Ravens21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jets 1
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Ravens 7
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Ravens 13
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Ravens 25
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 32
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 40
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 41
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 35
Jets7Ravens27
Jets7Ravens28
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 29
Jets7Ravens34
Jets7Ravens35
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Jets 23
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 33
4th quarter43 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 40
Jets13Ravens35
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 3 to the Ravens 28
Jets13Ravens41
Jets13Ravens42
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 10
Jets19Ravens42
Jets21Ravens42
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Ravens 18
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Ravens 45
Turnover on downs5 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Jets 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -17
Closing total
44
Jets moneyline
+775
Ravens moneyline
-1105
Ravens closed -17 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 44; the game landed 63 — over by 19.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 30°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Jets 4 days · Ravens 4 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs John Harbaugh
1st · 13:29
BAL +1% win prob
(13:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 81-H.Hurst to BAL 35 for 19 yards (58-J.Burgess).
2nd · 15:00BAL +1% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 82-J.Crowder pushed ob at BAL 9 for 41 yards (29-E.Thomas III). Darnold completes pass on the run, avoiding pass rush.
