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Philadelphia Eagles 37 at Washington Commanders 27. Final.
Eagles -7 ✓O 38 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Philadelphia Eagles 37, Commanders 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:40, 3rd and 2, on C.Wentz — 24.1 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:40 · 3rd and 2
C.Wentz
Commanders
(6:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 28 for -5 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson) [52-R.Anderson], touched at PHI 33, RECOVERED by WAS-93-Jon.Allen at PHI 34. 93-Jon.Allen to PHI 34 for no gain (62-J.Kelce).
Eagles closed -7 and covered, winning by 10.
Philadelphia Eagles 37–27. Biggest swing: Q4 6:40, Commanders +24.1% win probability on one snap.
24.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.PetersonCommandersQ4 15:00(15:00) 26-A.Peterson right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.6pts
M.SandersEaglesQ4 13:43(13:43) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left end to WAS 19 for 56 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
20.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 11 of 16 on third down, against Commanders at 4 of 10 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Commanders at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Commanders at +0.05 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Eagles165 of 174 plays carry both curves
(6:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 28 for -5 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson) [52-R.Anderson], touched at PHI 33, RECOVERED by WAS-93-Jon.Allen at PHI 34. 93-Jon.Allen to PHI 34 for no gain (62-J.Kel
Swing +24.1 for CommandersExpected points +4.25 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 20 points higher than the market did.play 150
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:40PHI +24% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 28 for -5 yards (52-R.Anderson). FUMBLES (52-R.Anderson) [52-R.Anderson], touched at PHI 33, RECOVERED by WAS-93-Jon.Allen at PHI 34. 93-Jon.Allen to PHI 34 for no gain (62-J.Kelce).
4th · 13:43WAS +21% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left end to WAS 19 for 56 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
4th · 15:00WAS +17% win prob(15:00) 26-A.Peterson right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:32WAS +15% win prob(:32) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 84-G.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:23WAS +15% win prob(1:23) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:02WAS +13% win prob(10:02) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:26
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
G.Ward's 4-yard touchdown catch with 0:32 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st1:26J.Elliott·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–0
Eagles ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Eagles: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.01Commanders: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Eagles: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.01Commanders: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.25Eagles: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.05Commanders: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 73 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Commanders’s 51 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Commanders 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Commanders12.8%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.2%, 13.5 points below their season mean of 16.7% and 1.3 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Ross PierschbacherCQuinton DunbarCBBrandon ScherffGJosh Harvey-ClemonsILBColt McCoyQBCaleb WilsonTETrey QuinnWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Case KeenumQBDarvin KidsyWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:32) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 84-G.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:32 · Eagles · 1st & goal at WAS 4 · gained 4 · +1.35 EP · +22.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 88 yards from the PHI 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
48%
Yards
767
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR40+0.4568%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0172%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10-0.1670%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.0950%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0450%
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR5+0.330%
Eagles2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Eagles 43
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles3Commanders0
Field goal16 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Commanders 7
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles3Commanders6
Eagles3Commanders7
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 42
2nd quarter55 plays
Eagles9Commanders7
Eagles10Commanders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 1
Eagles10Commanders13
Eagles10Commanders14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 5
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 41
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Commanders 48
Punt12 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Eagles16Commanders14
Eagles17Commanders14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Commanders 10
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 14
4th quarter47 plays
Eagles17Commanders20
Eagles17Commanders21
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Eagles23Commanders21
Eagles24Commanders21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 2
Eagles24Commanders24
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Eagles 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 33
Eagles24Commanders27
Field goal4 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Eagles30Commanders27
Eagles31Commanders27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Eagles37Commanders27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Eagles 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Eagles3
Commanders0
