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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle30
BY 6final margin
PanthersCarolina24
Seattle Seahawks 30 at Carolina Panthers 24. Final.
Seahawks -6 pushO 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Seattle Seahawks 30, Panthers 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:38, 2nd and 18, on J.Gordon — 7.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:38 · 2nd and 18
J.Gordon
Seahawks
(12:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon to CAR 25 for 58 yards (25-E.Reid).
Seahawks closed -6 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Seattle Seahawks 30–24. Biggest swing: Q2 12:38, Seahawks +7.2% win probability on one snap.
7.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.McCaffreyPanthersQ2 13:46(13:46) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5.2pts
T.LockettSeahawksQ4 2:24(2:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 14 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Penalty on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Illegal Contact, declined.
6.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Panthers at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 4 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Seahawks171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(12:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon to CAR 25 for 58 yards (25-E.Reid).
Swing −7.2 for PanthersExpected points −4.73 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 17 points higher than the market did.play 45
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:38CAR +7% win prob(12:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon to CAR 25 for 58 yards (25-E.Reid).
4th · 2:24CAR +7% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 14 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Penalty on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Illegal Contact, declined.
2nd · 13:46CAR +5% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:55CAR +5% win prob(2:55) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard to SEA 34 for 14 yards (33-T.Boston).
1st · 7:37CAR +5% win prob(7:37) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett to CAR 26 for 44 yards (26-D.Jackson).
3rd · 4:32SEA +5% win prob(4:32) 7-K.Allen pass short middle intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 50-K.Wright (97-P.Ford) at SEA 39. 50-K.Wright to 50 for 11 yards (72-T.Moton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Carson's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 10:34 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:34C.Carson·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right uprightLead never changed again+66–0
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Panthers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Seahawks: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.01Panthers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.48Seahawks: +0.48 expected points added per play
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.09Panthers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 61 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Panthers’s 71 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Panthers 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.0 pts in week 14 against −3.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.9% in week 14 against 46.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Panthers23.3%
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -3.4 pts, 4.8 points below their season mean of 1.4 pts and 1.3 times their own 3.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon to CAR 25 for 58 yards (25-E.Reid).
Q2 12:38 · Seahawks · 2nd & 18 at SEA 17 · gained 58 · +4.73 EP · +11.8% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 84 yards from the CAR 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
46%
Yards
842
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0676%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2252%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0433%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0436%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR9+0.7133%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.7783%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Seahawks6Panthers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Panthers 16
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Seahawks12Panthers0
Seahawks13Panthers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Panthers 14
The period ended11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 16
2nd quarter49 plays
Seahawks13Panthers6
Seahawks13Panthers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 9 to the Seahawks 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Seahawks19Panthers7
Seahawks20Panthers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Panthers 14
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Panthers 49
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 45
Punt6 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Seahawks 32
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 30
3rd quarter41 plays
Seahawks20Panthers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 34
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Panthers 45
Intercepted11 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Seahawks 39
Intercepted2 plays, from midfield to the Panthers 46
Intercepted2 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 18
Seahawks23Panthers10
Field goal6 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 12
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter55 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 41
Seahawks29Panthers10
Seahawks30Panthers10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Panthers 6
Seahawks30Panthers16
Seahawks30Panthers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 15
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 40
Seahawks30Panthers23
Seahawks30Panthers24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Seahawks 5
The period ended13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -6
Closing total
48.5
Seahawks moneyline
-250
Panthers moneyline
+218
Seahawks closed -6 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 54 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Ron Rivera
4th · 2:29
SEA +5% win prob
(2:29) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard to SEA 36 for 2 yards (93-G.McCoy). PENALTY on SEA-78-D.Fluker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 34 - No Play.
4th · 3:19CAR +5% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
