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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 at Detroit Lions 17. Final.
Buccaneers -5.5 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Lions 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 5:23, 2nd and 13, on S.Bunting — 16.0 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:23 · 2nd and 13
S.Bunting
Buccaneers
(5:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at TB 30. 26-S.Bunting for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Buccaneers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 5:23, Buccaneers +16.0% win probability on one snap.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
B.PerrimanBuccaneersQ1 7:30(7:30) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-B.Perriman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.6pts
M.GayLionsQ4 8:04(8:04) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
7.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Buccaneers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Lions at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Buccaneers174 of 183 plays carry both curves
(5:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at TB 30. 26-S.Bunting for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.0 for LionsExpected points −9.84 for LionsThe model had Lions 6 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:23TB +16% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at TB 30. 26-S.Bunting for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:04TB +7% win prob(8:04) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
1st · 7:30DET +6% win prob(7:30) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-B.Perriman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:37TB +5% win prob(13:37) 71-E.Watford reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones left tackle to DET 40 for 2 yards (29-R.Melvin). PENALTY on TB-72-J.Wells, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 42 - No Play.
4th · 15:00DET +5% win prob(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 36-W.Hills left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:10DET +5% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 19-B.Perriman pushed ob at DET 45 for 22 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
B.Perriman's 34-yard touchdown catch with 7:30 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:30B.Perriman·34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Winstonfrom J.WinstonLead never changed again+77–0
Buccaneers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Buccaneers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.37Lions: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.57Buccaneers: +0.57 expected points added per play
−0.45Lions: −0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Buccaneers: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.09Lions: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 69 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Lions’s 62 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Lions 2.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, +8.9 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 14.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
DET's early-down pass rate, 76.1%, is past their previous high of 65.5% in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Lions13.6%
inside their normal wobble · +2.8 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.1%, 20.8 points above their season mean of 55.3% and 2.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Mike JacksonDBA'Shawn RobinsonDTBeau BenzschawelGChristian JonesILBMatthew StaffordQBBo ScarbroughRBRick WagnerT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kyle SloterQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Blough pass−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at TB 30. 26-S.Bunting for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:23 · Lions · 2nd & 13 at TB 35 · gained nothing · -9.84 EP · −20.3% win probability
173 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 99 yards from the TB 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
37%
Yards
790
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.6589%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1569%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0050%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2573%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.3022%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+1.2957%
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Lions 42
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers6Lions0
Buccaneers7Lions0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Lions 34
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 37
Buccaneers13Lions0
Buccaneers14Lions0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 1 to the Lions 33
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Lions 47
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from midfield to the Lions 44
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 16
Buccaneers20Lions0
Buccaneers21Lions0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Lions 15
Buccaneers21Lions3
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 33
3rd quarter42 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Buccaneers 48
Buccaneers24Lions3
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Lions 28
Buccaneers24Lions9
Buccaneers24Lions10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Buccaneers 4
4th quarter48 plays
Buccaneers24Lions16
Buccaneers24Lions17
Touchdown2 plays
No good14 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Lions 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Buccaneers30Lions17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Buccaneers 32
Buccaneers31Lions17
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 46
Buccaneers37Lions17
Buccaneers38Lions17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Lions 25
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
